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Do climate models predict extreme weather?

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Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#211
post #196
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh right, I misinterpreted the xkcd plot. It's only the single (x)-marked dot in the top right of the graph, that is the Exxon prediction. Not the graph itself.

Perhaps a bit more epistemically humility is in order. For all of us, myself included. That said, even highly adversarial climate models greated almost half a century ago have tremendous predictive power. Large systems are modelable. Not with any degree of precision, of course, but a high degree of accuracy. Otherwise insurance companies wouldn’t exist.

> That said, even highly adversarial climate models greated almost half a century ago have tremendous predictive power.

Yes. About the warming effect of doubling the atmospheric CO2 (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity):

Manabe and Wetherald 1967, said 2.3°C.

The Charney Report 1979, said 3.0 ± 1.5°C.

IPCC AR6 2021, says 3.0°C (2.5 to 4.0).

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/24/3/1520-04...

https://www.bnl.gov/envsci/schwartz/charney_report1979.pdf

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6...

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fauci later said GP gave an actual quote, can you provide one for this as well?

Fauci admits to lying about masks and explains why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLXttHlUgK8 Maybe you think Fauci changed his mind based on new evidence on mask effectiveness, but he literally says they advised against masks due to a fear of PPE shortages, and not due to changing evidence. So either way he deceived: either he deceived about mask effectiveness thus spreading health misinformation, or he deceived a…

Blows my mind that people still wonder why the US response to the pandemic has been “less than optimal”. They seem to forget that this narcissist has been the primary advisor to both presidents…and has literally got everything he asked for from both administrations.

The US pandemic response hasn’t been a Trump or Biden problem, it’s been a Fauci problem.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This attitude exemplifies the problem with the public discourse. The public discourse isn’t about finding out truth and forming actionable democratic consensus, it is about duping “stupid people” into supporting “good things”™.

By the time Machiavelli wrote The Prince, the very act of writing the book was a tracer round to rampant political cynicism. Once an attitude or ideology is the target of satire, it has already bcome interwoven into a society. I presume that to be even moreso in eras where publishing had high cost. There's also this naive commitment to truth. Yes, we want our mental models to be more accurate and predictive. What if…

The point of a democratic government is being ruled by demos, the people. You are describing a government run by benevolent elites. In such case of course the government may lie and deceive people, and even pretend that it is democratic, but it won’t be a democratic government.

The naive commitment to truth is the most fundamental requirement for the most basic freedom, the freedom to reason. To lie, to deceive someone means to take away that freedom.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most of the world does not give a shit about climate change unless they will personally suffer in some way. That's uncharitable and untrue. > So I lie. So that even if this storm or that hurricane didn’t hurt them, they will have empathy for those who did suffer from a climate-enhanced storm. People distrust science after decades of bad science journalism and bad science communication, and you think the solution is…

> That's uncharitable and untrue. This is a strange misconception about climate change, even among many of what should be the better educated and informed section of the population, at least on the issues of the science. The misconception is that more people need to be convinced about climate change and the need to take action. Many climate change topics that come up even on here get well received comments about prob…

Exactly. In the political sphere, "excuses" are not "reasons". Well meaning people get these confused all of the time, accepting a politician's excuses at face value as the reason they don't support some policy.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#215
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He very clearly said that people should not be wearing masks, and the reason was very clearly implied to be that they wouldn't be effective; in fact, in that 60 mins interview, he outright said that wearing a mask could be worse than not wearing one. That has always been obvious horseshit to anyone who knows anything about biology. His later statement was that the "real reason" they advised people not to wear masks w…

> His later statement was that the "real reason" they advised people not to wear masks was not actually the stated reason, but a completely different reason. Again, he didn't comment on the factual basis of the original mask guidance, only the reason why he made a proclamation one way or another. You are reading between the lines a bit too hard here I reckon. > That has always been obvious horseshit to anyone who kno…

> Again, he didn't comment on the factual basis of the original mask guidance, only the reason why he made a proclamation one way or another.

And those reasons contradict the earlier reasons he gave. How is this not a clear deception? Perhaps we should discuss the actual video evidence:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLXttHlUgK8

Furthermore, if the factual basis of the original recommendations were not false, why were masks mandated soon after shortages were no longer a concern? (and continue to be)

> But had it been like all previous pandemic respiratory viruses including the one most closely related to this virus, where the vast majority of transmission occurs only after a carrier is symptomatic

That's irrelevant to this topic. You don't know who else around you in public might be symptomatic, that's the whole point of wearing masks.

> But Fauci didn't later admit deception and what he said at the time wasn't out of line with a reasonable interpretation of available evidence.

Yes, he literally did. He said people should not be walking around wearing masks. He justified this recommendation by saying that it's because masks are not providing the protection people think they do, and that they might only stop a droplet or two (all clear nonsense). He even said that wearing a mask might be more dangerous than not wearing one. These are all claims he made in that interview.

When asked later why his advice around masks changed, he didn't say the understanding of the facts changed, he said that those original recommendations were made for reasons completely unrelated to effectiveness (fears of PPE shortages).

You can try to spin this however you want to suit your narrative, or try to be as charitable as you want to Fauci, but this was clearly deceptive messaging, and almost certainly intentionally deceptive. At the very least, this would make Fauci among the worst science communicators I've ever seen, at worst he violated the public trust, and is that really who you want communicating to the public in the midst of a public health emergency?

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fauci admits to lying about masks and explains why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLXttHlUgK8 Maybe you think Fauci changed his mind based on new evidence on mask effectiveness, but he literally says they advised against masks due to a fear of PPE shortages, and not due to changing evidence. So either way he deceived: either he deceived about mask effectiveness thus spreading health misinformation, or he deceived a…

Blows my mind that people still wonder why the US response to the pandemic has been “less than optimal”. They seem to forget that this narcissist has been the primary advisor to both presidents…and has literally got everything he asked for from both administrations. The US pandemic response hasn’t been a Trump or Biden problem, it’s been a Fauci problem.

I wouldn't take it that far. Fauci wasn't the only one peddling in lies, and Trump made plenty of mistakes early on that could have saved lives.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Canada they said masks don't work and even make things worse, despite every Asian country using them at the time.

Asian countries already used them at the time, not because of COVID. Unfortunately it appears that no one had researched this phenomenon so there were no good statistics on whether, or not, they were effective.

Surgeons have used surgical masks for... 100 years? Are you sure there's no evidence to back that up?

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#218
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His later statement was that the "real reason" they advised people not to wear masks was not actually the stated reason, but a completely different reason. Again, he didn't comment on the factual basis of the original mask guidance, only the reason why he made a proclamation one way or another. You are reading between the lines a bit too hard here I reckon. > That has always been obvious horseshit to anyone who kno…

> Again, he didn't comment on the factual basis of the original mask guidance, only the reason why he made a proclamation one way or another. And those reasons contradict the earlier reasons he gave. How is this not a clear deception? Perhaps we should discuss the actual video evidence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLXttHlUgK8 Furthermore, if the factual basis of the original recommendations were not false, why we…

This is now going in circles but quickly:

> why were masks mandated soon after shortages were no longer a concern? (and continue to be)

...because that is when the scientific evidence changed. Preprints from China were streaming in in March 2020 that were making a significant degree of presymptomatic transmission look increasingly likely.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fauci admits to lying about masks and explains why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLXttHlUgK8 Maybe you think Fauci changed his mind based on new evidence on mask effectiveness, but he literally says they advised against masks due to a fear of PPE shortages, and not due to changing evidence. So either way he deceived: either he deceived about mask effectiveness thus spreading health misinformation, or he deceived a…

Blows my mind that people still wonder why the US response to the pandemic has been “less than optimal”. They seem to forget that this narcissist has been the primary advisor to both presidents…and has literally got everything he asked for from both administrations. The US pandemic response hasn’t been a Trump or Biden problem, it’s been a Fauci problem.

How much of the pandemic response do you imagine Fauci actually controls?

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#220
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blows my mind that people still wonder why the US response to the pandemic has been “less than optimal”. They seem to forget that this narcissist has been the primary advisor to both presidents…and has literally got everything he asked for from both administrations. The US pandemic response hasn’t been a Trump or Biden problem, it’s been a Fauci problem.

How much of the pandemic response do you imagine Fauci actually controls?

He certainly controls the public media and Democratic Party Covid narrative in the US. If you have that much power in your corner, your influence is vast.
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