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New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Re: New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

#141

Post by junon »

jtc331 wrote: post #78
junon wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you need to know every possible side effect beforehand This is impossible and this stance comes from a complete misunderstanding about how vaccine studies work. Science has, in fact, prevailed here.

Quoted post unavailable.

Emergency use does not mean tests weren't carried out. It just means the entire process was given the highest priority at every step of the chain.

There were quite a few other companies that submitted vaccines for review that were denied, but nobody seems to want to talk about them.

Studies weren't "cut short". They're still ongoing. Dozens of independent auditors checking the efficacy, safety, and side effects of the vaccines constantly with incoming medical information.

It's naive and misinformed to think we're just sticking shit into our arms without understanding it.

Re: New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

#142

Post by giantg2 »

cromwellian wrote: post #138
giantg2 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Can have all cause mortality data from every year that tells us excess deaths." Well, sort of for n-order impacts, but not for direct numbers. To do that the other variables have to stay the same, which clearly isn't the case with the affects of lockdown and medical system strains (increased drinking, drug use, mental health strains, etc; less preventative care and access to medical care, etc).

If the virus is indirectly killing people by overwhelming the healthcare system, i’d attribute the deaths to the virus. Additionally I think we could look at countries whose health systems are bad or non-existent as a proxy to see excess deaths. Are you trying to defend the notion that COVID isn’t any worse than the flu? I’d say that as a balancing effect, the social distancing and masking of anything, has reduced de…

"Are you trying to defend the notion that COVID isn’t any worse than the flu?"

Nobody in this chain has suggested it. The person you responded to said that covid cases and death stats are garbage in garbage out. I would largely agree considering the underreporting of asymptomatic cases as well as the lack of distinction between causative and non-causitive hospitalizations and deaths.

The very argument you are making about possibly fewer deaths from other things supports my argument - the data doesn't exist to cover all the variables and some of the data is garbage. There is a huge difference between direct and n-order deaths, both for covid and other things. We could compare either one so long as we are all on the same page, but what's the point? The conversation was about data quality and not about lethality.

Re: New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

#143

Post by jtc331 »

junon wrote: post #141
jtc331 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Emergency use does not mean tests weren't carried out. It just means the entire process was given the highest priority at every step of the chain. There were quite a few other companies that submitted vaccines for review that were denied, but nobody seems to want to talk about them. Studies weren't "cut short". They're still ongoing. Dozens of independent auditors checking the efficacy, safety, and side effects of th…

It seems you didn't read what I wrote.

I didn't say "tests weren't carried out".

The studies were unblinded at 6 months -- the original plan was multiple years. That qualifies as "cut short" for any reasonable reading of those words.

> It's naive and misinformed to think we're just sticking shit into our arms without understanding it.

Also not even remotely what I actually said.

Did you even read my comment?

Re: New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

#144

Post by mauvehaus »

core-utility wrote: post #88
mauvehaus wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A good first step might be making sure the population is educated sufficiently to identify and weigh the risks between a 1 in 1,000,000 side effect, the disease the vaccine protects against, and the pure bullshit peddled by fear mongers. Right now, we have people in the US who still believe that Covid is no worse than a bad case of the flu. All the evidence (at least for the pre Omicron variants) suggests that the re…

I'm just an anecdote, but I've had COVID. It was less than a bad case of the flu. To pretend that it affects everyone equally and that they're all the worst thing ever is malpractice. Risk communication should always have been striated by age/comorbidity and let people make decisions from there.

Even if it's true that Covid most direly affects people in certain cohorts (and I think it's fairly clear that this is the case), the behavior of everyone is still a matter of public health for the reason that people in low-risk cohorts can pass the disease on to people in high risk cohorts.

Part of the "public" part of public health is that sometimes it's necessary to take actions as an entire population to limit the risk to a subset of people with higher risks.

I recognize that there are many factors besides dying of Covid at play here. A lot of people have certainly suffered economically, among a great many other affects, as a result of both Covid and the response to it.

I'm not trying to oversimplify here, but it's also not as simple as "let everybody make the best decision for themselves based on the available data". Which I'll point out we (mostly) didn't have in March and April of 2020.

Re: New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

#145

Post by cromwellian »

giantg2 wrote: post #142
cromwellian wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the virus is indirectly killing people by overwhelming the healthcare system, i’d attribute the deaths to the virus. Additionally I think we could look at countries whose health systems are bad or non-existent as a proxy to see excess deaths. Are you trying to defend the notion that COVID isn’t any worse than the flu? I’d say that as a balancing effect, the social distancing and masking of anything, has reduced de…

"Are you trying to defend the notion that COVID isn’t any worse than the flu?" Nobody in this chain has suggested it. The person you responded to said that covid cases and death stats are garbage in garbage out. I would largely agree considering the underreporting of asymptomatic cases as well as the lack of distinction between causative and non-causitive hospitalizations and deaths. The very argument you are making…

Do you think the data about excess deaths is less reliable than VAERS? On the one hand, we have actual factual data possibly with an unproven (but highly likely) correlation and on other hand, we have VAERS which can simply be spammed by anyone.

Re: New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

#146

Post by walterbell »

parkingrift wrote: post #134
walterbell wrote: post #17

I wish we could have a disclaimer on every article/study about vaccine side effects, something like: "This is not an attack on vaccines, pharmaceutical interventions, associated stakeholders or policy makers. This is not a statistical assessment of risk for specific audiences. Please focus feedback and resources on specific treatments for the living human beings who have been injured. Even one in a million is of litt…

I wish we didn't need that disclaimer. This is not how science or the scientific method is supposed to work. You shouldn't need an entire paragraph apologizing about your findings so that armchair warriors and tech companies don't censor you. It's honestly quite disturbing that this kind of upfront apologizing is needed.

Even HN has censored/flagged some papers, forestalling review and discussion. Time will tell if this was justified.

Re: New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

#147

Post by giantg2 »

cromwellian wrote: post #145
giantg2 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Are you trying to defend the notion that COVID isn’t any worse than the flu?" Nobody in this chain has suggested it. The person you responded to said that covid cases and death stats are garbage in garbage out. I would largely agree considering the underreporting of asymptomatic cases as well as the lack of distinction between causative and non-causitive hospitalizations and deaths. The very argument you are making…

Do you think the data about excess deaths is less reliable than VAERS? On the one hand, we have actual factual data possibly with an unproven (but highly likely) correlation and on other hand, we have VAERS which can simply be spammed by anyone.

This feels like you are trolling at this point. Nobody said they are less reliable. The excess deaths weren't even a point in this discussion until you brought it up. The other commenter specific mentioned covid cases and deaths.

You mention "factual data". The excess death numbers are estimates, per the CDC. They are approximate and could be changed as new information comes to light, etc. No problem with that, but not exactly facts as far as attributing a hard death count.

The issue with the VAERS data isn't people "spamming" it. It's that legitimate potential events are not reported. The purpose of VAERS is to provide early warning. This means people are supposed to report events that don't have a different proven cause. Noise from coincidental events could then be removed using population baseline occurrence. I'd the data simply isn't there, then it's not very useful for that purpose. I believe they also perform some cursory validation with the provider before accepting/confirming it, but I could be wrong.

Re: New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

#148

Post by bsder »

yunohn wrote: post #59
bsder wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main problem I have with all these papers is that they don't compare to the rates of symptoms from having had Covid . A lot of the idiocy these kinds of papers cause would be muted if you could point at the paper and say "Probably of X from vaccine--N%. Probability of X from Covid--N+M%." Of course, if the probability of X is less than with Covid--that's important to know, as well. It defines which vaccines we sh…

> “Probably of X from vaccine--N%. Probability of X from Covid--N+M%." It’s always important to do the math. But you’ve missed the third, and most obvious, calculation. Probability of X from vaccine+Covid — 2N+M, or whatever.

If that were the case, it would be very unusual and we wouldn't have to flag it as researchers would be jumping all over that.

Re: New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

#149

Post by native_samples »

PickledHotdog wrote: post #109
joshuahughes wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a very similar anecdote. Yes, covid sucked, but it was a mild 48hr illness in my experience. (And in the experience of dozens of my friends.) It's quite incredible that the GP can complain on the one hand about "the pure bullshit peddled by fear mongers" and then — without apparently recognising the irony — goes on to peddle fear themselves.

Congrats to you and your friends. Unfortunately that's not the case for hundreds of thousands of your compatriots and millions of your fellow humans. Conflating fear mongering around vaccines with very few cases of serious side effects (none of which are contagious) with "fear mongering" around the virus itself which has caused literally millions of deaths and untold post-infection issues for millions more is what's…

You don't actually know how common vaccine side effects are, because standard practice is to assume anything that happens >7 days after a vaccine isn't caused by it. This was the standard used in the trials for example. But from the paper:

"the mean time to onset of symptoms [for VITT] after vaccination is 8 days ... The mean time to onset of symptoms after vaccination [for auto immune hepatitis] is 13 days, ranging from 4 to 26 days"

etc. The trials had many other problems like smartphone apps for reporting side-effects that had a fixed list of 'expected' side effects, without any free-form input field to enter new ones. It's clear when you look into the details here that nearly the entire medical system is strongly biased against any findings of side effects and sets things up carefully to let them make such claims, regardless of common sense or what you might expect ethically.

Re: New‐onset autoimmune phenomena post‐Covid‐19 vaccination

#150

Post by native_samples »

cromwellian wrote: post #100
giantg2 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hopefully you reported to VAERS. People need to report potential events so that the data is present to do statistical analysis on. It's a shame how terrible the data currently is with all the under reporting.

VAERS is garbage in, garbage out. There is no curation since it is self reported, you may as well mine Reddit comments or Twitter to get the same data.

There clearly is some curation because reports appear in the database in batches. Reports can be self reported but don't have to be.

Regardless, even if everything you say is true, what it means is that governments deliberately run useless post-trial safety monitoring mechanisms. Which is terrifying and terrible. Putting all humanities eggs in one basket, literally.

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