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Oh, 2022

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Re: Oh, 2022

#481

Post by supperburg »

saalweachter wrote: post #464
supperburg wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He seemed to have plenty of hard science to cite in his hours long conversation with lex fridman, MIT alum and lecturer. It’s available for anyone to watch. If later on it becomes clear I was spreading wrong information then I’ll own up to it.

So at the end of the day we're both just referencing different authorities here. Why do you trust this guy's assertion on how many excess deaths there have been over the last two years, and their cause, more than the CDC's numbers?

Excess deaths != Covid deaths.

I listened to the podcast again and he said he conducted serology studies pre-vaccine that indicate an overall lethality of 0.2% but 0.05% for everyone who isn’t 70 years old or whatever. That’s detection of antibodies with 0.05% false positive rate and then a follow up on death early on in the pandemic.

So one might point out that I changed my number from 0.02 to 0.2 and this is true. But what’s also true is that there’s a huge difference between 4% and 0.2%. And I was right to point out that 1-4% is bullshit. I feel mad because I remember hearing the 0.2% number all the way back at the start of the pandemic but everyone shouted it down. And here we are and it was right after all…

Re: Oh, 2022

#482

Post by shmoopi »

beachy wrote: post #278
shmoopi wrote: post #267

Regarding politics, information overflow, and general increase in lunacy. To put it simply, it was expected the level of noise and sensation will rise after smartphones emerged. Loud lunacy seems to be a great way to catch public attention currently and this is well understood by both the media, politicians and vegabonds of wealth. Sensational journalism was always a problem, now add to that billions of people able t…

> But there's good news. I cannot stress enough that it's entirely possible to control the level of exposure to said digital noise. You don't have to follow news, politics and social media intensely. You can just opt out. This is good news in the same sense that it's good news that you can do your bit for the climate crisis by walking everywhere, switching to vegetarianism and wearing only hand-crocheted hemp clothin…

>it's not really good news at all because even if you do it, hardly anyone else will, and the world will carry on just as it is regardless.

You're right, but I didn't mean it as a way to make things better, I meant it as a way to make your life better, assuming the world isn't going to change. The good news is it's your choice if you don't feel like being swept up in the torrent of digital noise.

Re: Oh, 2022

#483

Post by kkjjkgjjgg »

rjsw wrote: post #193
kkjjkgjjgg wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure but "the klept" according to the article are doing their benefitting (stealing) now, according to the article. And the institutions are still kind of working. There would also presumably be enough poor already to form a scary mob, even without immigration.

The current systems redirects the anger of the poor against the "other poor".

The competition seems to be real, though?

Re: Oh, 2022

#484

Post by supperburg »

hinkley wrote: post #255
supperburg wrote: post #81

So wrong. “If” sars1/2 had gone pandemic. The reason they didn’t is because they don’t make you infectious in an asymptomatic way like cov19. It wasn’t an “if.” They never will. And also, covid 19 is not 1 to 4 percent lethal. It’s more like 0.02 percent lethal. A Stanford professor said so. But he could have said we were lucky to not have gotten hit by a different virus that kills 80% and travels asymptomatically. T…

> 0.02 percent lethal. A Stanford professor said so. Sometimes you have to stop listening to what people say and get out your own tape measure/calculator. If not for yourself, so other people can take you seriously. We have .25% of Americans officially dead from COVID so far . Not of infected Americans, of the general population. If not more person dies, "A Standford Professor" is already off by a factor of 12. Offic…

I went back and checked. 0.2 overall 0.05 for most people under 70 or 60. Based on pre-vaccine serology test with a follow up on death. False positive rate of 0.05% percent. So not 1% and definitely not 4%. Can you blame me for being mad when I see guys saying 4%? It’s misinformation according to science and Stanford professors of medicine.

Re: Oh, 2022

#485

Post by occz »

tm-guimaraes wrote: post #465
JulianMorrison wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the comments on Charlie's site, and not by me: Wyvernsridge | January 9, 2022 19:06 | Reply 8: I love these kinds of posts! I would, however, caution about thinking that the end of ICE car manufacturing will be dictated solely by government diktat. It will most likely come earlier and more chaotically because of manufacturers being unable to source parts and components to continue making those cars. The auto ind…

ICE cars are still needed because battery tech is not good enough. There are plenty of studies showing that an hybrid car is much better for the environment on the long term than the current state of lithium battery electric cars. Long range EV are a pest. Lithium mining is way worse for the environment than people believe, and there is the whole other issues related to mining in general. We still need ice cars

Cars are a bad option for long-range transportation anyway. I'm not convinced at all by this argument.

Re: Oh, 2022

#486

Post by occz »

erosenbe0 wrote: post #425
elihu wrote: post #123

> "Looking further afield: it seems likely that the end of internal combustion engines will be in sight. Some countries are already scheduling a ban on IC engines to come in after 2030—electric cars are now a maturing technology with clear advantages in every respect except recharge time. Once those IC cars are no longer manufactured, we can expect a very rapid ramp-down of extraction and distribution industries for…

Recharge time needs to be under 10 minutes or you have a pipe dream. 5-7 minutes would be better. Too many renters, condo owners, and small businesses with fleets don't have time to deal charging.

Given that the average car spends 95% of its lifetime being parked, I don't think this is as big of an issue as you make it out to be.

Re: Oh, 2022

#487

Post by ghaff »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #200
walrus01 wrote: post #12

Regarding spacex in this, my starlink terminal recently hit a milestone of 0.00% ICMP loss to terrestrial ISP things in the pacific northwest. Averaged over 5, 6 hour periods. 20 icmp pings every 60s, basically a default smokeping install set to once a minute. Previously it was running somewhere around 0.15% to 0.60% which was still totally usable... if you put a similar test setup on a noisy/oversubscribed coaxial c…

I'll go as far as to say that Starlink is now so good i honestly believe it's going to change the other industries and not just its own. As an example I've been looking at properties outside of suburbia since testing a friends Starlink terminal. I know i can get proper broadband on par with cable anywhere. It's changed my personal long term future plans. I think it's going to change a lot of things.

My brother just rebuilt a house up in Maine. Previously the house had 1Mbps (with a tailwind) DSL. They wouldn't even reinstall it and houses further down the road couldn't get it at all.

You could get a Verizon hotspot (and ration data). But Starlink is pretty good. Video streaming does stutter a bit--you're better off downloading. I could actually work up there which I couldn't really with the old DSL.

Re: Oh, 2022

#488

Post by Jedd »

chris1993 wrote: post #433
djtango wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>but unusable in storms Dumb Q - is satellite any better in a storm?

Storms, and just heavy rain, consistently send our satellite internet offline. This is Australian “sky muster plus” pointing at a geosynchronous satellite at a higher orbit than starlink.

To augment the other two responses here with some anecdata -- yes, storms would knock off my geostationary satellite connection in ways I didn't fully understand (it might just have been a huge bump in attempted utilisation for all I could tell at the consumer level).

Starlink during storms, and we've have a half dozen big ones since I got this service 4 months ago, seems to do more re-acquires during those events (several seconds of drop-outs) but I'm not seeing significantly lengthy outages.

The dish is still sitting on some concrete blocks on the ground, so it may simply be that it's wobbling more during the wilder winds.

Re: Oh, 2022

#489

Post by Phileosopher »

beckingz wrote: post #110
cstross wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wrote Accelerando from 1998-2004. That's a third of a lifetime ago. It's normal to slow down as you grow older!

Must be wild watching the overton window pass you in the fast lane.

I'm convinced that it happens proportionally to information transfer. What once took 10 years to slowly detect now takes about 1 year to realize you don't want the new [thing] because you're feeling a sense of deja vu.

In 15 years, it'll be a 3-month endeavor unless we see the human limits of perceptual processing hit a hard wall. I liken it to how memory used to be expensive and engineers cheap, and it's now the other way around.

Re: Oh, 2022

#490

Post by tialaramex »

klabb3 wrote: post #381
JulianMorrison wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the comments on Charlie's site, and not by me: Wyvernsridge | January 9, 2022 19:06 | Reply 8: I love these kinds of posts! I would, however, caution about thinking that the end of ICE car manufacturing will be dictated solely by government diktat. It will most likely come earlier and more chaotically because of manufacturers being unable to source parts and components to continue making those cars. The auto ind…

I don't think it's unlikely that ICEs will be phased out as quickly as the optimists are suggesting. Once there's critical momentum things move quickly, so +1 from me. However, all that new electricity demand needs to come from somewhere. Drawing power from the grid at night works great today, but that's because of a coincidental uneven energy demand, which I doubt will last for too long. Once EVs are truly mainstrea…

Worth remembering that one reason electric cars are cheaper to run is that they're more efficient. More of the energy added to the car translates into moving you somewhere and less is converted into waste heat etc.

As a result 1MJ of petrol consumption replaced with electricity when somebody replaces their car with an EV is not 1MJ more electricity to deliver but perhaps 600kJ. This can mean guesses of the necessary infrastructure investment to deliver a fit-for-purpose supply network are significant over-estimates.

Cars are also an excellent target for "demand side control" in electrical grids. You'd be very angry if your refrigerator shuts down temporarily when the grid load is high, and pretty unhappy if your lights or TV shut down, but how about the tumble dryer? Most days you wouldn't care, and if you got paid for the option you might jump at the chance. However charging your car overnight who cares whether it charges from 1830 (when you arrive home) to 0340 (full) or from 2230 (as people go to bed and the network is less strained) to 0740 (just before you get in the car to drive to work) ?

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