Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Oh, 2022

antipope.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

441–450 of 557 posts

Re: Oh, 2022

#441

Post by JulianMorrison »

donquichotte wrote: post #434

> and political instability (in large part a side-effect of social media That is a little bit too simplistic, isn't it? First, there was political instability before social media. Second, it seems that a lot of people are dissatisfied with how things are going, which is of little surprise given huge wealth inequality and a general rise in totalitarianism and authoritarianism all over the world. The sentence also carr…

Very unfortunately, "a lot of people are dissatisfied with how things are going" is a circumstance which has a strong tendency to directly cause totalitarianism and authoritarianism. They vote for a Charismatic Guy who will Sweep Aside Loopholes and Smash the Evildoers.

Re: Oh, 2022

#442

Post by makerofthings »

50 years from now everything will be renewables, all the heavy industry will be on the moon and we’ll be using fleets of self-driving EVs. It’s going to be close, you can expect some turbulence, some coastal areas are going to get flooded, there might be the odd border skirmish, but 100 years from now nobody will talk about Climate change outside of history books. This is my optimistic hope for the future.

Re: Oh, 2022

#443

Post by erosenbe0 »

beambot wrote: post #396
j0057 wrote: post #61

> low-lying coastal nations like Bangladesh And lots of other places. About 1 billion people live along coastlines at 20 meters or less above sea level, and 200 million at 5 meters or less. I live in a wealthy country but well within the 5 meters range and am already having to think about whether it wouldn't be more prudent to sell my house today, now that it's still worth something, and emigrate to somewhere with a…

I love the irony in SFBA of major tech companies building their new HQs right on the water's edge. They'll be the first to acknowledge anthropogenic climate change, yet I've never been able to get a satisfactory justification for their realestate decisions.

Maybe because Silicon Valley is the ultimate location for maximizing race and class exclusion. It is a de-facto exclusionary zone with minimal accessibility for Black workers and Black families, often by designs, covenants, zoning, and hostility going back 100 years. In order for those entities to opportunity hoard for their own children they need a class exclusive, car-dependent community with low access for 'others.'

Edit: not accusing any particular person, ceo, or entity of malice.

Re: Oh, 2022

#444

Post by tlb »

makerofthings wrote: post #442

50 years from now everything will be renewables, all the heavy industry will be on the moon and we’ll be using fleets of self-driving EVs. It’s going to be close, you can expect some turbulence, some coastal areas are going to get flooded, there might be the odd border skirmish, but 100 years from now nobody will talk about Climate change outside of history books. This is my optimistic hope for the future.

What are the advantages of putting heavy industry on the moon?

Re: Oh, 2022

#445

Post by theshrike79 »

elihu wrote: post #246
ip26 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars don’t last as long as you’d think, on average. There will also be a knee in the curve where the ICE fleet drops below critical mass and gas stations start shutting down - and the harder it becomes to find a station, the faster people will switch.

I think EVs will quickly overtake ICE vehicles once they're price competitive and battery manufacturing scales up to the levels needed, but that's a separate issue from government bans. My point is that several governments now have policies in place that say they're going to ban the sale of new ICE vehicles after a certain date. But they aren't going to disallow the use of ICE vehicles in their country or on their ro…

I agree, there won't be any "bans" for ICEs per se.

But there WILL be higher congestion charges and maybe even localised bans for ICEs in city centres. No one wants a smoking diesel truck idling under their window if they have the option to replace it with a quiet EV.

Re: Oh, 2022

#446

Post by makerofthings »

tlb wrote: post #444
makerofthings wrote: post #442

50 years from now everything will be renewables, all the heavy industry will be on the moon and we’ll be using fleets of self-driving EVs. It’s going to be close, you can expect some turbulence, some coastal areas are going to get flooded, there might be the odd border skirmish, but 100 years from now nobody will talk about Climate change outside of history books. This is my optimistic hope for the future.

What are the advantages of putting heavy industry on the moon?

I imagine there is no need to worry about pollution, or carbon footprint or any of that. Stick nuclear reactors all over the place, nothing to really worry about if anything goes wrong with them. It’s just a big ball of rock with no atmosphere so it seems like an ideal place to stick all the dirty industry that’s messing the earth up.

Re: Oh, 2022

#447

Post by Tobu »

kxrm wrote: post #175
ip26 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars don’t last as long as you’d think, on average. There will also be a knee in the curve where the ICE fleet drops below critical mass and gas stations start shutting down - and the harder it becomes to find a station, the faster people will switch.

I think ICE cars will see a retro use period like many nostalgic things, so while I agree the daily driver will change, it's very likely that fuel will be seen as some sort of luxury product. Right now fuel is a loss leader for most gas stations, that dynamic will definitely change as ICE vehicles become a toy or status symbol for upper middle class and wealthy people.

Boutique carrying the finest petroleum and other refined goods:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqkmaIfWMWQ

(Shot during another wave of rising gas prices)

Re: Oh, 2022

#448

Post by anthonyskipper »

erosenbe0 wrote: post #428
elihu wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think EVs will quickly overtake ICE vehicles once they're price competitive and battery manufacturing scales up to the levels needed, but that's a separate issue from government bans. My point is that several governments now have policies in place that say they're going to ban the sale of new ICE vehicles after a certain date. But they aren't going to disallow the use of ICE vehicles in their country or on their ro…

The total cost of ownership for an EV is still pathetic in a certain sense if I need to allot even 10 extra minutes waiting for a charge somewhere on a weekly basis. Especially a small business owner like Joe Plumber -- that's around 10k in lost job time over the life of the vehicle. If I'm well-off with thousands of watts wired to my garage then great but that's not so many people especially in denser cities as well…

You sound like someone who doesn't own an EV? I plug mine into a standard outlet outside my house. It's pretty much always charged. If your plumber is driving so far they need to recharge on the way I think you have bigger problems than the ROI on the vehicle.

Re: Oh, 2022

#449

Post by divbzero »

j0057 wrote: post #61

> low-lying coastal nations like Bangladesh And lots of other places. About 1 billion people live along coastlines at 20 meters or less above sea level, and 200 million at 5 meters or less. I live in a wealthy country but well within the 5 meters range and am already having to think about whether it wouldn't be more prudent to sell my house today, now that it's still worth something, and emigrate to somewhere with a…

> Worst case if Greenland's ice sheet melts, that adds 7 meters to sea level, and Antarctica's another 60 meters. I won't see that in my lifetime but my children might.

How likely is this worst case?

IPCC in 2021 [1] projected a 0.5 m to 2.0 m sea level rise by 2100 (see Figure SPM.8) and NOAA in 2020 [2] suggested a worst case of 2.5 m sea level rise by 2100. It appears that neither are considering the possibility of an entire ice sheet melting?

[1]: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6...

[2]: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/...

Re: Oh, 2022

#450

Post by jacquesm »

erosenbe0 wrote: post #435
jacquesm wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The answer is pretty simple, though you may not like it: lots of people will die.

Plenty of people already currently die from poverty, disease, lack of sanitation, poor nutrition, and conflicts. So maybe the number of these preventable deaths stays about constant as poverty improves but climate worsens?

No. If you start forcibly moving people in those numbers out from some of the real estate that we've invested 100's of years of hard work and income into then that number will not stay about constant. These are the most productive parts of our planet that we're talking about.
Post reply on HN