Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Oh, 2022

antipope.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

211–220 of 557 posts

Re: Oh, 2022

#211

Post by InvaderFizz »

baud147258 wrote: post #112

> leading to a complete phase-out [of ICE] possibly as early as 2040 I have a hard time believing this, if it's something that's supposed to happen globally, including for all good transportation, which is a category where I don't remember seeing much electric vehicles. And as for it happening globally, that'd mean everywhere on the globe, there'd be enough electricity to supply all the needs for transportation and a…

If you read it in a more realistic fashion, and see the implementations that are happening today, it makes much more sense.

Governments are rolling out policies that vehicles manufactured after 2030/2035/2040, etc will not be eligible for vehicle registration.

This makes much more sense than banning existing fleets, as the vast majority of any car fleet will be replaced over the period of a decade. (Average US car lifespan is 12 years).

This serves as a slow ramp up time, as well as less political pushback. Will the electric grids be able to keep up? Mostly. Will electricity prices increase as a result of demand that is costly to build new generation sources to satisfy, almost certainly.

Most of these "green" policies are taxing those with little upfront capital to invest (bottom two quintiles) and subsidizing those with capital.

Are these policies going to impact me or my family? Not really. I'm specifically investing tens of thousands of dollars in my home to reduce my grid costs to negligible levels and make my home non-grid dependent. The grid is mediocre, at best, where I live. Also, there is no net metering, so I need batteries to service a large portion of my non-solar generating hours.

Re: Oh, 2022

#212

Post by postmeta »

j0057 wrote: post #61

> low-lying coastal nations like Bangladesh And lots of other places. About 1 billion people live along coastlines at 20 meters or less above sea level, and 200 million at 5 meters or less. I live in a wealthy country but well within the 5 meters range and am already having to think about whether it wouldn't be more prudent to sell my house today, now that it's still worth something, and emigrate to somewhere with a…

what model predicts 5m rise in 100 years?

Re: Oh, 2022

#213

Post by nsonha »

posts like this are the worst for meaningful discussion. Imagine a person comes at you and dump all sort of thoughts about everything under the sun in one go, most of the time mixing informed opinions with those on fields they have no expertise in. Who are you, the president? An activist with no agenda (all of them)? A generic "scientist"? A wise person? I would run from that as quickly as I can.

I wouldn't assume a person doing that wants to have any conversation, they have a speech and just want a megaphone (an approving audience) to relay their speech.

Re: Oh, 2022

#214

Post by scatters »

Houshalter wrote: post #130

Just take the last thing in this article. It links to an obscure blog by some crazy person that hasn't updated in 4 years. What's the point of this? Cruelly mocking some mentally ill person's posts from years ago, as proof that "the future is unpredictable"? Or claiming brexit is economically worse than covid. Massively disrupting the world economy for 2 years is less bad than some regulatory changes in a single coun…

Stross is writing as a UK-based author; obviously Brexit is having a worse effect than Covid on the UK economy.

Re: Oh, 2022

#215

Post by tomrod »

> (Apologies for slow load time: this blog runs on an ancient, slow Athlon box and this entry is currently being hammered by Hacker News readers.)

Much as I like Antipope, this looks like blaming others for something that is easily remedied.

I think his predictions on climate & politics are sound. I wonder if there is a listing of climate priorities for mitigation. Interrupting crops sounds like the top of the list.

Re: Oh, 2022

#216

Post by hinkley »

danielheath wrote: post #195
elihu wrote: post #123

> "Looking further afield: it seems likely that the end of internal combustion engines will be in sight. Some countries are already scheduling a ban on IC engines to come in after 2030—electric cars are now a maturing technology with clear advantages in every respect except recharge time. Once those IC cars are no longer manufactured, we can expect a very rapid ramp-down of extraction and distribution industries for…

Closer to 40% than 50% from the most recent numbers I've seen, and that's of volume shipped, not volume*distance (Australia to China / India being a relatively short route that carries quite a lot of the coal). That wouldn't disappear entirely if you electrified everything; coal is widely used for producing steel (1kg blast-furnace steel uses 750g met-grade coal, this is ~10% of imports in China) and preparing cement…

We can't keep making steel with coal either. It's slowly shifting over to other reduction agents.

Re: Oh, 2022

#217

Post by Houshalter »

scatters wrote: post #214
Houshalter wrote: post #130

Just take the last thing in this article. It links to an obscure blog by some crazy person that hasn't updated in 4 years. What's the point of this? Cruelly mocking some mentally ill person's posts from years ago, as proof that "the future is unpredictable"? Or claiming brexit is economically worse than covid. Massively disrupting the world economy for 2 years is less bad than some regulatory changes in a single coun…

Stross is writing as a UK-based author; obviously Brexit is having a worse effect than Covid on the UK economy.

The UK is still under covid restrictions and went into a huge amount of debt during the crisis. The events are not remotely comparable.

Re: Oh, 2022

#218

Post by supperburg »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #144
supperburg wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t need to show you, go listen to the Stanford professor. Lex Fridman podcast in the past week or two. Am I an idiot for believing a current Stanford professor? Is it not a reputable source?

You're not an idiot for believing the professor, but you could stand to apply more critical thought to the question, and look for additional sources before thoughtlessly propagating what you heard on a podcast. Just because "a professor" says something doesn't mean you should reflexively believe it. As an example, a Stanford professor by the name of Dr. Scott Atlas was a prominent voice within the Trump administratio…

"Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University

Re: Oh, 2022

#219

Post by supperburg »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #151
josephcsible wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was already explained upthread: "the death count is exaggerated because the criteria for a Covid death is that a person is dead and also tests positive for Covid regardless of how the person really died."

This is a lie, likely a deliberate one. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-94-percent-covi... You should go back to the person who told you this lie and ask them why they did it. A simple accounting of excess deaths ( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm ) is all you need to dispel the notion of a 0.02% fatality rate.

Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University

That’s from sep 2020. I think professor Bhattacharya is aware of the numbers.

Re: Oh, 2022

#220

Post by solveit »

rektide wrote: post #199
krapp wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's a shit system though, deeply dehumanizing ways of treating each other. The system was already deeply dehumanizing. "Block early, block often" is simply the inevitable and, frankly, only reasonable reaction to years of dealing with psychopaths, assholes and trolls on the internet. I only wish Hacker News came with its own killfile. Mine would be hundred of entries long by now.

Quoted post unavailable.

"Why don't you do it?" is not a put-down I like very much, but when you say stuff like this

>yeaahhhh sorrrryyyy, i just see basically zero attempts to build systems that do better. there's a vast lack of trying in my view. calling this all inevitable & necessary is a dry, shrivelled response that accepts the fat nothingburger of effort anyone has put in to trying anything better.

I feel compelled to ask: "Have you tried?"

Post reply on HN