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Oh, 2022

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Re: Oh, 2022

#191

Post by NelsonMinar »

gman83 wrote: post #22
walrus01 wrote: post #12

Regarding spacex in this, my starlink terminal recently hit a milestone of 0.00% ICMP loss to terrestrial ISP things in the pacific northwest. Averaged over 5, 6 hour periods. 20 icmp pings every 60s, basically a default smokeping install set to once a minute. Previously it was running somewhere around 0.15% to 0.60% which was still totally usable... if you put a similar test setup on a noisy/oversubscribed coaxial c…

Last time I checked, there were dozens of commercial satellite ISPs ramping up their launches. Do these companies have a plan to deal with potential collisions and the potential space debris that would cause?

Do you have a list of these? I'm aware of Amazon's Kuiper and also ViaSat / OneWeb. Neither are available yet.

Yes, they have a plan to deal with collisions.

Re: Oh, 2022

#192

Post by zola »

cstross wrote: post #78
gmuslera wrote: post #19

Should be be worried that the author of Accelerando complains about things going too fast? Future is complex, and not only "good" developments happens and start changing everything faster than ever before, bad ones does too. And we aren't rational enough to avoid the bad ones. Anyway, I'm more worried about the consequences of climate change that are not the slow rise of the global sea level than about COVID. That is…

I wrote Accelerando from 1998-2004. That's a third of a lifetime ago. It's normal to slow down as you grow older!

Thank you for writing Accelerando.

Re: Oh, 2022

#193

Post by rjsw »

kkjjkgjjgg wrote: post #173
nostrademons wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends where we are in history. With functioning political and legal systems, police, public order, and general protection of property rights and taboo against violence, the rich benefit from immigration. It provides a more abundant, cheaper workforce, and societal institutions can prevent any negative consequences. If those political institutions collapse, there is nothing scarier than an angry mob of starving peop…

Sure but "the klept" according to the article are doing their benefitting (stealing) now, according to the article. And the institutions are still kind of working. There would also presumably be enough poor already to form a scary mob, even without immigration.

The current systems redirects the anger of the poor against the "other poor".

Re: Oh, 2022

#194

Post by walrus01 »

NelsonMinar wrote: post #191
gman83 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last time I checked, there were dozens of commercial satellite ISPs ramping up their launches. Do these companies have a plan to deal with potential collisions and the potential space debris that would cause?

Do you have a list of these? I'm aware of Amazon's Kuiper and also ViaSat / OneWeb. Neither are available yet. Yes, they have a plan to deal with collisions.

There's not dozens for broadband internet. A lot more if you count companies intending to build low throughput non realtime m2m data networks with cubesat size things.

Announced but not implemented Leo other than SpaceX include amazon, Russia, china, telesat.

Re: Oh, 2022

#195

Post by danielheath »

elihu wrote: post #123

> "Looking further afield: it seems likely that the end of internal combustion engines will be in sight. Some countries are already scheduling a ban on IC engines to come in after 2030—electric cars are now a maturing technology with clear advantages in every respect except recharge time. Once those IC cars are no longer manufactured, we can expect a very rapid ramp-down of extraction and distribution industries for…

Closer to 40% than 50% from the most recent numbers I've seen, and that's of volume shipped, not volume*distance (Australia to China / India being a relatively short route that carries quite a lot of the coal).

That wouldn't disappear entirely if you electrified everything; coal is widely used for producing steel (1kg blast-furnace steel uses 750g met-grade coal, this is ~10% of imports in China) and preparing cement (producing 1kg cement uses 500g coal).

However, mass electrification would still be a dramatic drop in shipping.

Re: Oh, 2022

#196

Post by JulianMorrison »

elihu wrote: post #123

> "Looking further afield: it seems likely that the end of internal combustion engines will be in sight. Some countries are already scheduling a ban on IC engines to come in after 2030—electric cars are now a maturing technology with clear advantages in every respect except recharge time. Once those IC cars are no longer manufactured, we can expect a very rapid ramp-down of extraction and distribution industries for…

From the comments on Charlie's site, and not by me:

Wyvernsridge | January 9, 2022 19:06 | Reply 8:

I love these kinds of posts! I would, however, caution about thinking that the end of ICE car manufacturing will be dictated solely by government diktat. It will most likely come earlier and more chaotically because of manufacturers being unable to source parts and components to continue making those cars.

The auto industry is basically a pyramid where OEMs [ie the car companies] depend on module/system [Tier1] suppliers as well as component suppliers [Tier 2] and Parts suppliers [Tier 3]. Those relationships are built on contracts that span out to five years and beyond. Today, contracts are being negotiated for 2025-2030. Those contracts, if happening at all, are being done for much lower quantities of units. After all, an EV does not need a cast-aluminium gearbox assembly. The manufacturers within those tiers are highly competitive among themselves and they know they need to find alternative to manufacture and remain viable well in advance of 2030. For OEMs this means trouble finding components, and paying much higher prices for those than they used to [ie the suppliers are costing in the risks]. This means that ICE car prices will skyrocket at the same time that EV prices go mainstream.

Re: Oh, 2022

#197

Post by coldtea »

stickfigure wrote: post #83
gman83 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last time I checked, there were dozens of commercial satellite ISPs ramping up their launches. Do these companies have a plan to deal with potential collisions and the potential space debris that would cause?

"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly hugely mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." (RIP Douglas Adams)

Since space debris in the satellite zone is already a problem, that's not a solution.

Re: Oh, 2022

#198

Post by Apocryphon »

YMMV, but feels to me that cstross's Cassandra pessimism has increased rapidly each year, with good reason, but some of these pieces are overly-sensationalist. I still remember his whole bit in 2017 about how Hurricane Harvey was going to destroy Houston - how'd that turn out?

http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2017/08/houston-...

But I will say his 2015 piece, "A different cluetrain", still holds up with grimmer and grimmer shades of beige*:

http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2015/02/a-differ...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9106983

* a 2013(!) piece: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2013/02/politica...

Populist demagogues and pandemics might come and go, but the automated, over-financialized, post-political bureaucratic intelligence state is here to stay so long as civilization looks the way it does now. That piece has a lot more deep, systems-oriented thinking. I'd say cstross' pre-2016 predictions still hold up so much better than the more "ripped from the headlines" attempts in these later pieces. His 2017 three-parter in particular has some embarrassingly sensationalist, hand-wavy stuff.

Re: Oh, 2022

#199

Post by rektide »

krapp wrote: post #187
rektide wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a shit rubbish reality that the only moderation option is infinite, is forever. Sever ties. End it. Write someone off as garbage. Your comment is way way too cancel culture for me. It hurts a lot having one bad exchange & having the door slammed in your face. Especially if it's some topic you feel strongly about, that you were trying to engage in. You may be right that it's a better tact than engaging. It's a shi…

>It's a shit system though, deeply dehumanizing ways of treating each other. The system was already deeply dehumanizing. "Block early, block often" is simply the inevitable and, frankly, only reasonable reaction to years of dealing with psychopaths, assholes and trolls on the internet. I only wish Hacker News came with its own killfile. Mine would be hundred of entries long by now.

No post body was provided.

Re: Oh, 2022

#200

Post by AnotherGoodName »

walrus01 wrote: post #12

Regarding spacex in this, my starlink terminal recently hit a milestone of 0.00% ICMP loss to terrestrial ISP things in the pacific northwest. Averaged over 5, 6 hour periods. 20 icmp pings every 60s, basically a default smokeping install set to once a minute. Previously it was running somewhere around 0.15% to 0.60% which was still totally usable... if you put a similar test setup on a noisy/oversubscribed coaxial c…

I'll go as far as to say that Starlink is now so good i honestly believe it's going to change the other industries and not just its own.

As an example I've been looking at properties outside of suburbia since testing a friends Starlink terminal. I know i can get proper broadband on par with cable anywhere. It's changed my personal long term future plans. I think it's going to change a lot of things.

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