Oh, 2022 • Hacker News Board

Re: Oh, 2022

#121

Post by TranquilMarmot » Sun, Jan 09, 2022, 10:51 PM UTC

JetSetWilly wrote: post #106

> (We don't remember how awful chickenpox was because (a) we're generally vaccinated in infancy and (b) it's not a killer on the same level as its big sibling, Variola, aka smallpox. But the so-called "childhood diseases" like mumps, rubella, and chickenpox used to kill infants by windrows. There's a reason public health bodies remain vigilant and run constant vaccination campaigns against them Don't understand that…

I live in the US and got Chickenpox as a child, I think from a classic "Chickenpox party". I'm not sure if I was also vaccinated against it or not...

I got Shingles at 25 (I'm 30 now). I didn't believe it at first because I thought Shingles was an "old person's disease". I remember going to the doctor the day it started, and he just prescribed me some painkillers. I said, "I don't think I'll need those I don't feel too bad." He just looked me in the eyes and said, "Oh, you will." It was awful. Some of the worst pain I've ever been in. I laid in bed for almost a week basically hallucinating.

Apparently, Shingles can come up multiple times in your life. I wonder if getting exposed to Chickenpox again would decrease the odds... I don't spend any time around children, so I don't think that's likely to happen to me haha.

Re: Oh, 2022

#122

Post by jeffbee » Sun, Jan 09, 2022, 10:53 PM UTC

walrus01 wrote: post #12

Regarding spacex in this, my starlink terminal recently hit a milestone of 0.00% ICMP loss to terrestrial ISP things in the pacific northwest. Averaged over 5, 6 hour periods. 20 icmp pings every 60s, basically a default smokeping install set to once a minute. Previously it was running somewhere around 0.15% to 0.60% which was still totally usable... if you put a similar test setup on a noisy/oversubscribed coaxial c…

Note that this would also be the observable effect of simply prioritizing ICMP while dropping other protocols.

Probably a better thing to observe is loss and congestion on normal TCP sockets, using retransmit counters, congestion window collapse, etc.

Re: Oh, 2022

#123

Post by elihu » Sun, Jan 09, 2022, 10:54 PM UTC

> "Looking further afield: it seems likely that the end of internal combustion engines will be in sight. Some countries are already scheduling a ban on IC engines to come in after 2030—electric cars are now a maturing technology with clear advantages in every respect except recharge time. Once those IC cars are no longer manufactured, we can expect a very rapid ramp-down of extraction and distribution industries for petrol and diesel fuels, leading to a complete phase-out possibly as early as 2040."

At this point the proposed bans are on the sale of new vehicles that run on fossil fuels. As far as I know, no one is planning to outright ban ICE vehicles yet. Headline writers consistently get this wrong, because making the policy sound more extreme than it is attracts ad views.

> "As about half of global shipping is engaged in the transport of petrochemicals or coal at this point, this is goin to have impacts far beyond the obvious."

Huh, that's a lot. If that's correct, it's a lot more than I would have guessed.

Re: Oh, 2022

#124

Post by onychomys » Sun, Jan 09, 2022, 10:54 PM UTC

makomk wrote: post #108

ErikAugust wrote: post #76

“If the SARS family of coronaviruses had emerged just a decade earlier it's quite likely we'd be on the brink of civilizational, if not species-level, extinction by now—SARS1 has 20% mortality among patients, MERS (aka SARS2) is up around 35-40% fatal, SARS-NCoV19, aka SARS3, is down around the 1-4% fatality level. If SARS1 had gone pandemic we might plausibly have lost a billion people within two years.” That’s a sc…

The problem with that thought is that having such high fatality rates is a problem for a virus that hopes to become a pandemic - it's hard for a disease to spread silently through the population if several out of every ten people infected end up in the hospital, even with a delay, and of course pretty much all developed countries have contact tracing systems in place even if that fact got downplayed after they didn't…

> is that having such high fatality rates is a problem for a virus that hopes to become a pandemic

Somebody forgot to tell that to smallpox, which had something like a 25 or 30% IFR before vaccines came around. And there were lots and lots of pandemics of that!

Re: Oh, 2022

#125

Post by vkou » Sun, Jan 09, 2022, 10:55 PM UTC

makomk wrote: post #108

ErikAugust wrote: post #76

“If the SARS family of coronaviruses had emerged just a decade earlier it's quite likely we'd be on the brink of civilizational, if not species-level, extinction by now—SARS1 has 20% mortality among patients, MERS (aka SARS2) is up around 35-40% fatal, SARS-NCoV19, aka SARS3, is down around the 1-4% fatality level. If SARS1 had gone pandemic we might plausibly have lost a billion people within two years.” That’s a sc…

The problem with that thought is that having such high fatality rates is a problem for a virus that hopes to become a pandemic - it's hard for a disease to spread silently through the population if several out of every ten people infected end up in the hospital, even with a delay, and of course pretty much all developed countries have contact tracing systems in place even if that fact got downplayed after they didn't…

That depends on how long it takes you between the moment when you are contagious, and the moment that you drop dead.

If you are contagious on day 2, symptomatic on day 17, and drop dead on day 180, such a disease will happily spread through a population, despite having a 100% fatality rate. There will be no evolutionary pressure for that virus to become less lethal, just like how there's no evolutionary pressure for people to live to 200.

Re: Oh, 2022

#126

Post by slg » Sun, Jan 09, 2022, 11:03 PM UTC

supperburg wrote: post #117

slg wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And also, covid 19 is not 1 to 4 percent lethal. It’s more like 0.02 percent lethal. We have had roughly 860k COVID deaths in the US. At a 0.02% fatality rate that would equate to 4.3b cases. So are you suggesting the US death total is exaggerated or that the average American has already had COVID 10+ times?

The Stanford professor who I saw on a recent lex Friedman podcast confirmed what many people already suspected: the death count is exaggerated because the criteria for a Covid death is that a person is dead and also tests positive for Covid regardless of how the person really died. And also that cases were massively undercounted because of the fact that many people never have symptoms bad enough to justify any concer…

How would explain the excess deaths models[1] that often show that if anything the COVID deaths are undercounted?

If the current COVID death total isn't accurate, what would be your ballpark estimates for the real death and case totals in the US?

[1] - https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

Re: Oh, 2022

#127

Post by VectorLock » Sun, Jan 09, 2022, 11:03 PM UTC

jeffbee wrote: post #122

walrus01 wrote: post #12

Regarding spacex in this, my starlink terminal recently hit a milestone of 0.00% ICMP loss to terrestrial ISP things in the pacific northwest. Averaged over 5, 6 hour periods. 20 icmp pings every 60s, basically a default smokeping install set to once a minute. Previously it was running somewhere around 0.15% to 0.60% which was still totally usable... if you put a similar test setup on a noisy/oversubscribed coaxial c…

Note that this would also be the observable effect of simply prioritizing ICMP while dropping other protocols. Probably a better thing to observe is loss and congestion on normal TCP sockets, using retransmit counters, congestion window collapse, etc.

Was going to mention that a lot of ISPs de-prioritize ICMP but I get a sense that OP might be aware of that.

It'd be cool to see what a long running mtr in TCP mode says about Starlink.

Re: Oh, 2022

#128

Post by maxerickson » Sun, Jan 09, 2022, 11:03 PM UTC

TranquilMarmot wrote: post #121

JetSetWilly wrote: post #106

> (We don't remember how awful chickenpox was because (a) we're generally vaccinated in infancy and (b) it's not a killer on the same level as its big sibling, Variola, aka smallpox. But the so-called "childhood diseases" like mumps, rubella, and chickenpox used to kill infants by windrows. There's a reason public health bodies remain vigilant and run constant vaccination campaigns against them Don't understand that…

I live in the US and got Chickenpox as a child, I think from a classic "Chickenpox party". I'm not sure if I was also vaccinated against it or not... I got Shingles at 25 (I'm 30 now). I didn't believe it at first because I thought Shingles was an "old person's disease". I remember going to the doctor the day it started, and he just prescribed me some painkillers. I said, "I don't think I'll need those I don't feel t…

There's a shingles vaccine, though it's only approved for over 50: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/shingles/public/shingrix/in...

Doesn't seem to be much out there about whether that is because of insurance coverage or if that is the population they tested in or if there are additional factors.

Re: Oh, 2022

#129

Post by Houshalter » Sun, Jan 09, 2022, 11:03 PM UTC

aftbit wrote: post #102

From the linked counterfactuals from 2017: >Quietly and without any fuss Ruth Bader Ginsberg has had a stroke: Pence indicates that her replacement will be a pro-life fundamentalist Christian. (Goodbye Roe v. Wade and, quite possibly, Griswold v. Connecticut.) Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally.

Predicting the supreme court would become more conservative during a conservative presidency and senate was not a hard prediction. Ginsberg was known to be in poor health, but I guess you could count that as a successful prediction.

But the other details are all wrong. There hasn't been a Protestant on the supreme court in awhile, let alone a fundamentalist.

Re: Oh, 2022

#130

Post by Houshalter » Sun, Jan 09, 2022, 11:04 PM UTC

Just take the last thing in this article. It links to an obscure blog by some crazy person that hasn't updated in 4 years.

What's the point of this? Cruelly mocking some mentally ill person's posts from years ago, as proof that "the future is unpredictable"?

Or claiming brexit is economically worse than covid. Massively disrupting the world economy for 2 years is less bad than some regulatory changes in a single country? "A crewed moonbase by 2031"?