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Oh, 2022

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Re: Oh, 2022

#111

Post by ceejayoz »

JamisonM wrote: post #87
redisman wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t that kind of nonsensical reasoning? The viruses evolved how they evolved. I don’t see how the decade they emerged in makes a difference? It didn’t cause a pandemic because of the properties of the virus. Not because of the “decade”

It is nonsensical but not because of the way the viruses evolved - if SARS1 or MERS had been capable of causing a genuine pandemic with their fatality rate then the response would have been different, so it wouldn't have been a mass extinction event! With SARS1 we actually managed to make a vaccine - we just didn't end up needing it.

> if SARS1 or MERS had been capable of causing a genuine pandemic with their fatality rate then the response would have been different, so it wouldn't have been a mass extinction event!

That depends quite a bit on how rapidly it spreads. If COVID had started with Omicron's level of infectiousness, it'd have been a dramatically more deadly pandemic.

Re: Oh, 2022

#112

Post by baud147258 »

> leading to a complete phase-out [of ICE] possibly as early as 2040

I have a hard time believing this, if it's something that's supposed to happen globally, including for all good transportation, which is a category where I don't remember seeing much electric vehicles. And as for it happening globally, that'd mean everywhere on the globe, there'd be enough electricity to supply all the needs for transportation and agriculture.

Re: Oh, 2022

#113

Post by soupfordummies »

> (Apologies for slow load time: this blog runs on an ancient, slow Athlon box and this entry is currently being hammered by Hacker News readers.)

Lol, and yet it still loads lickety split compared to something like cnn.com for instance.

Re: Oh, 2022

#114

Post by BlueTemplar »

ErikAugust wrote: post #76

“If the SARS family of coronaviruses had emerged just a decade earlier it's quite likely we'd be on the brink of civilizational, if not species-level, extinction by now—SARS1 has 20% mortality among patients, MERS (aka SARS2) is up around 35-40% fatal, SARS-NCoV19, aka SARS3, is down around the 1-4% fatality level. If SARS1 had gone pandemic we might plausibly have lost a billion people within two years.” That’s a sc…

The extinction part is hyperbole though - with 7 billion humans out there it would need to hit fatality rates of 99.9...% for a decent chance of the human species to be completely wiped out. And also assuming that it would persist and/or spread well enough to also wipe out the various uncontacted tribes on 2-3 continents.

Re: Oh, 2022

#115

Post by ceejayoz »

voldacar wrote: post #6

> Quite possibly the Antarctic ice shelves will be destablized decades ahead of schedule, leading to gradual but inexorable sea levels rising around the world. This may paradoxically trigger an economic boom in construction this is known as the broken window fallacy

No, the fallacy is "the economic boom is good, so climate change is OK".

Noting the existence of the boom isn't the fallacy. Advocating for it is.

Re: Oh, 2022

#116

Post by pja »

aerovistae wrote: post #64

Personally, I stopped reading after this: > If the SARS family of coronaviruses had emerged just a decade earlier it's quite likely we'd be on the brink of civilizational, if not species-level, extinction by now—SARS1 has 20% mortality among patients, MERS (aka SARS2) is up around 35-40% fatal, SARS-NCoV19, aka SARS3, is down around the 1-4% fatality level. I It felt sensational to me to the point the I could no long…

The bubonic plague killed a third of the population of Europe. I imagine that felt pretty apocalyptic at the time & it had a long term impact on the entire region.

A plague that killed a third of those infected spread by modern international travel would be catastrophic. Medieval Europe got to spread the impact out over decades. Killing a third of the population in a year or two would be much worse.

Re: Oh, 2022

#117

Post by supperburg »

slg wrote: post #97
supperburg wrote: post #81

So wrong. “If” sars1/2 had gone pandemic. The reason they didn’t is because they don’t make you infectious in an asymptomatic way like cov19. It wasn’t an “if.” They never will. And also, covid 19 is not 1 to 4 percent lethal. It’s more like 0.02 percent lethal. A Stanford professor said so. But he could have said we were lucky to not have gotten hit by a different virus that kills 80% and travels asymptomatically. T…

>And also, covid 19 is not 1 to 4 percent lethal. It’s more like 0.02 percent lethal. We have had roughly 860k COVID deaths in the US. At a 0.02% fatality rate that would equate to 4.3b cases. So are you suggesting the US death total is exaggerated or that the average American has already had COVID 10+ times?

The Stanford professor who I saw on a recent lex Friedman podcast confirmed what many people already suspected: the death count is exaggerated because the criteria for a Covid death is that a person is dead and also tests positive for Covid regardless of how the person really died. And also that cases were massively undercounted because of the fact that many people never have symptoms bad enough to justify any concern, testing or a hospital visit. That’s what he’s asserting and it’s true.

He said when you sample randomly and follow positive testers to their conclusion, the lethality rate is something like 0.02%. I’m sorry that it upsets you to hear something you don’t already agree with

Re: Oh, 2022

#118

Post by kkjjkgjjgg »

Do the rich, a ka "the klept" as he calls them, really suffer the most from unchecked immigration? It seems rather doubtful to me, as presumably immigrants would compete with and provide cheap labor?

Re: Oh, 2022

#119

Post by JoeAltmaier »

supperburg wrote: post #117
slg wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And also, covid 19 is not 1 to 4 percent lethal. It’s more like 0.02 percent lethal. We have had roughly 860k COVID deaths in the US. At a 0.02% fatality rate that would equate to 4.3b cases. So are you suggesting the US death total is exaggerated or that the average American has already had COVID 10+ times?

The Stanford professor who I saw on a recent lex Friedman podcast confirmed what many people already suspected: the death count is exaggerated because the criteria for a Covid death is that a person is dead and also tests positive for Covid regardless of how the person really died. And also that cases were massively undercounted because of the fact that many people never have symptoms bad enough to justify any concer…

It's specious to claim knowledge of things unmeasured? Dial it back a bit there - maybe 'somewhat undercounted'. And is that criteria made up too? Show me.

Re: Oh, 2022

#120

Post by supperburg »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #119
supperburg wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Stanford professor who I saw on a recent lex Friedman podcast confirmed what many people already suspected: the death count is exaggerated because the criteria for a Covid death is that a person is dead and also tests positive for Covid regardless of how the person really died. And also that cases were massively undercounted because of the fact that many people never have symptoms bad enough to justify any concer…

It's specious to claim knowledge of things unmeasured? Dial it back a bit there - maybe 'somewhat undercounted'. And is that criteria made up too? Show me.

I don’t need to show you, go listen to the Stanford professor. Lex Fridman podcast in the past week or two. Am I an idiot for believing a current Stanford professor? Is it not a reputable source?
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