Oh, 2022
antipope.org
Oh, 2022
1–10 of 557 posts
Re: Oh, 2022
#2Charlie Stross is a hard science fiction author, I believe his works (like Accelerado) have been quite influential and inspiring for many hn users. I believe it could be interesting to discuss his (pessimistic) take on this year.
Re: Oh, 2022
#3Ah, "feco-chiropteroid crazy" is my new favourite expression. Thank you, Charlie Stross!
Re: Oh, 2022
#4Charlie Stross is a hard science fiction author, I believe his works (like Accelerado) have been quite influential and inspiring for many hn users. I believe it could be interesting to discuss his (pessimistic) take on this year.
And decade.
Re: Oh, 2022
#5Charlie Stross is a hard science fiction author, I believe his works (like Accelerado) have been quite influential and inspiring for many hn users. I believe it could be interesting to discuss his (pessimistic) take on this year.
He is by far one of the most interesting bloggers on my RSS feeds, and I would also recommend reading the comments - in which he participates actively.
Re: Oh, 2022
#6> Quite possibly the Antarctic ice shelves will be destablized decades ahead of schedule, leading to gradual but inexorable sea levels rising around the world. This may paradoxically trigger an economic boom in construction
this is known as the broken window fallacy
Re: Oh, 2022
#7> Quite possibly the Antarctic ice shelves will be destablized decades ahead of schedule, leading to gradual but inexorable sea levels rising around the world. This may paradoxically trigger an economic boom in construction this is known as the broken window fallacy
I think this is the psychology behind a lot of investors. Breaking even after an unnecessary loss is seen as good.
Re: Oh, 2022
#8Charlie Stross is a hard science fiction author, I believe his works (like Accelerado) have been quite influential and inspiring for many hn users. I believe it could be interesting to discuss his (pessimistic) take on this year.
He's also a HN user: https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=cstross
Re: Oh, 2022
#9These predictions are like puzzle pieces that don't fit together.
If 50% of the population are COVID invalids, who's going to be doing the (building) work for a new economic boom? You can't seriously say "I'm going to make predictions - but let's just ignore the most important health event for over a century."
So - mRNA vaccinations. If you can vaccinate against AIDS, flu, cancer (being investigated...), and the rest, you get a bimodal population where a fair proportion of those born before Vaccination Day are cripples, and potentially everyone born after is super-immune to many killer diseases.
The important word being "potentially."
Political implications? Just a bit.
If there's a permanent Moon base - so what? Does anything really change? How? (What - in practical and economic terms, as opposed to symbolically - did the ISS change?) Can you even have a self-sustaining Moon base without relying on Earth. (Hint: not for a long time.)
Cars: I really don't think many people are going to be thinking about cars in 2030-2040. Cars are useless if your roads/buildings are flooded/burning.
Robots? Possibly. (See also: economic boom. Kind of)
But behind this the real issues are psychological. The planet without toxic media and mad billionaires is a much nicer place than the planet with them. Many of the biggest trad-media offenders will be dead by 2030. Will they be replaced? Will there be a Metaverse Abstinence movement? Can one be engineered?
I'd like to believe we can beat the raccoons yet.
Re: Oh, 2022
#10> Quite possibly the Antarctic ice shelves will be destablized decades ahead of schedule, leading to gradual but inexorable sea levels rising around the world. This may paradoxically trigger an economic boom in construction this is known as the broken window fallacy
I don't think it is at all. It falls under the 'that which is seen' in Bastiat's original parable.
> I grant it; I have not a word to say against it; you reason justly. The glazier comes, performs his task, receives his six francs, rubs his hands, and, in his heart, blesses the careless child. All this is that which is seen.
What Stross does not say is that because rising sea levels are good for the construction industry they are therefore good in general. That would be an example of the broken window fallacy.
In most cases broken windows truly are good for glaziers, but that doesn't mean that we should break windows.