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One of my favourite simple plots: https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2013/05/Life-expectancy-b...
What's with that huge drop in life expectancy between 1910-1920?
The 1918 flu epidemic killed even more (3 times as many), but not weighted as young; together it was a big hit on life expectancy.
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The author must have taken inspiration from Death Note.
A similar website, http://www.deathclock.com/ , has been around for a very long time. Since at least before the Death Note manga came out.
This is so depressing, and I am left with just over 60%.I can't imagine how someone would feel with just 10% or even less..
I just spent 8 years in jail simply because I was broke. What a waste of some of the best years of my life.
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Makes sense to me. Consider that at 91-92 years you will have exceeded the expected number of years for your cohort.
> Makes sense to me. That a person alive now is expected to die in the past? > Consider that at 91-92 years you will have exceeded the expected number of years for your cohort. The correct method for estimating remaining life is using life expectancy at current age not life expectancy at birth , since you want to know how long one is expected to live given that they have not, in fact, died already. At 92, life expect…
This seems an uncharitable interpretation. Instead, I expect that the value shown is the "expected age of death" - "current age", which if your current age is beyond the average results in a negative number.
FWIW and as you note, this isn't the most useful result since alive people can't die in the past unless we accept some sci-fi premises.
> The correct method
While we're on the topic... More correct? Many factors that would improve the prediction weren't collected and used but a better prediction would take those into account.
So... Yes, your suggested method seems more useful and accurate yet I wasn't going for that goal so much as noting that it made sense to be that a lazy/naive/PoC/first implementation might get a negative result using exactly the formula above.
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"Most adults" fall under "life expectancy after reaching adulthood" rather then "longevity". Adult young people and middle aged people died a lot more then today. Whether due to incidents that were more common and harder to treat or sicknesses. If you limit the stats to "adults never never got seriously sick and never got injured" then the comparison is completely meaningless. Yeah, people did evolved to live longer,…
Sure, all adults fall under life expectancy from their current age. It’s always a Bayesian statistic. The comment you replied to might be off by ~10 or even ~20 years -- depending heavily on what year and location we’re talking about -- but it’s still a valid point and it has always been true that surviving childhood to be 20 years old gave you a dramatically higher probability of leading a long life. The plot @kqr p…
Yes, but not that much. Mythology on HN makes them live basically as long as we do live. Completely ignoring adult accidents rates, ability to fix them or sicknesses and deaths while giving births. Ignoring sicknesses from stuff missing in food.
And of course using nebulous "past" as if forrest communities in 240 had same lifespan as 1950 city middle class. You imply deep past and all people. Then you argue by recent past excluding most common causes of death.
If you look at estimated length of life after adulthood, it is still lower then what was written here. If we were in the past, some of us would fall from roof, died of minor wound infection, tetanus, whatever we get vaccines for now, got tuberculosis or other now treatable sickness. Some of us would die while giving birth.
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Exactly. I hit 40 a few years back, and I’m statistically likely to live at least that long again. A lot happened in 40 years, and I was not in control of my life for just shy of half of that. The next 40 is going to be interesting.
>>The next 40 is going to be interesting. The next 20-25 will be interesting for you - after that you will just be telling people to get off your lawn, and making doctors appointments. ;>)
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Yeah, fair point. I'll try to improve that. Any idea on how you'd want to see it done?
Ex: A down arrow button attached directly to the right side of the year input field. Make it a deeper blue and then wrap a 1 or 2 pixel wide rectangle around the field itself of that same color.
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Sure, all adults fall under life expectancy from their current age. It’s always a Bayesian statistic. The comment you replied to might be off by ~10 or even ~20 years -- depending heavily on what year and location we’re talking about -- but it’s still a valid point and it has always been true that surviving childhood to be 20 years old gave you a dramatically higher probability of leading a long life. The plot @kqr p…
> dramatically higher probability of leading a long life Yes, but not that much. Mythology on HN makes them live basically as long as we do live. Completely ignoring adult accidents rates, ability to fix them or sicknesses and deaths while giving births. Ignoring sicknesses from stuff missing in food. And of course using nebulous "past" as if forrest communities in 240 had same lifespan as 1950 city middle class. You…
You’ve complained about my examples without providing any evidence of your argument at all. I’m not sure what your argument is either. Plato wrote about people living to be 80 years old. Bone samples from ancient native Americans show people living to 80 years old.
It’s an actual fact that surviving childhood before the last century produced a posterior probability that was dramatically higher than the at-birth life expectancy, where dramatically means 20-30 years longer life expectancy, precisely because something like 50% of people died between birth and adulthood. 50% is obviously a proxy for a number I don’t know exactly but could be anywhere from, say, 10% to 90% depending on when and where.
“Until the middle of the 20th century, infant mortality was approximately 40–60% of the total mortality. Excluding child mortality, the average life expectancy during the 12th–19th centuries was approximately 55 years. If a medieval person survived childhood, they had about a 50% chance of living 50–55 years, instead of only 25–40 years.”
“Paleolothic : Based on the data from modern hunter-gatherer populations, it is estimated that at 15, life expectancy was an additional 39 years (total 54), with a 60% probability of reaching 15.”
“Classical Greece : Based on Athens Agora and Corinth data, total life expectancy at 15 would be 37–41 years. Most Greeks and Romans died young. About half of all children died before adolescence. Those who survived to the age of 30 had a reasonable chance of reaching 50 or 60. The truly elderly, however, were rare. Because so many died in childhood, life expectancy at birth was probably between 20 and 30 years.”
“Early Middle Ages Europe : Life expectancy for those of both sexes who survived birth averaged about 30—35 years. However, if a Gaulish boy made it past age 20, he might expect to live 25 more years while a woman at age 20 could normally expect about 17 years. And anyone who survived till 40 had a good chance at another 15 to 20 years.”
“Medieval Islamic World : Average age of scholars was 56–84.3 years”
Etc., etc., etc.
https://thedeathclock.co/results?life_expectancy=81&dob=1991...