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Do climate models predict extreme weather?

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Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#121

Post by generalizations »

diamondlovesyou wrote: post #119
labster wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a climatologist by education and a dabbler in politics, I think you are radically misjudging the ability of most people to have rational discussions about unwelcome statistics. If you say severe weather will increase by 20% due to climate change, people will hear that there’s an 80% chance weather will stay the same. And they say I’m just being alarmist. When I say that this storm may have been enhanced by climate…

I address this mostly to this comment's siblings: the fact that you're upset about the lying bit only reinforces labster's point. I say this based on the comments thinking that the lie is actually meant to deceive, getting distracted with the word "lie" and its connotations, and missing the broader issue. The issue is that the general population can't be reasonably expected to understand how climate change works, and…

> to those that need to hear it, it says what it needs to say to get them to understand what needs to be done

This only works if truth is used. The labster seems to be assuming they have credibility; but if they're lying, or if they're associated with liars, they'll lose it (if they haven't already).

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#122

Post by generalizations »

Breazy wrote: post #97
enkid wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give a specific example of what you are talking about? What noble lies were being told about COVID? I heard a lot of "we don't knows, but here is the best bet" which were not lies, but all of the lies I heard absolutely were not noble in that they were not for the public's best interest, but rather for the best interest of the individual saying them.

"Stop wearing masks, they don't work."

No post body was provided.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#123

Post by [deleted] »

enkid wrote: post #89
whiddershins wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my view, the problem with the noble lie, which you are engaging in, is that it has been an unmitigated disaster with regards to Covid messaging. As it became obvious some officials were willing to lie, this opened the door to many people having no idea who to trust. I believe public trust in leaders and institutions is at an incredible low, and I’m not sure how it can be repaired. Regardless of whether you think p…

Can you give a specific example of what you are talking about? What noble lies were being told about COVID? I heard a lot of "we don't knows, but here is the best bet" which were not lies, but all of the lies I heard absolutely were not noble in that they were not for the public's best interest, but rather for the best interest of the individual saying them.

[deleted]

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#124

Post by matthewdgreen »

mbfg wrote: post #92

My understanding from the video is: the climate models stink, and everyone in the science understands this but has difficulty communicating this. The real world is more extreme than the models. But we have no way to extend the models to cover the seen extremes, nor do we know how to cap the possible extremities in any model. Do i have that right?

We’ve terraformed the crap out of the world in ways that are guaranteed to have massive and significant effects, and climate scientists are racing to try to predict where the worst impacts will fall. This is an incredibly difficult thing to do because while in the aggregate the damage we’ve done is visible, weather is chaotic and the problem is near impossible. Instead of seeing modelers as our best, if highly imperfect, guides to weathering this storm we are (predictably) using the imperfection of their models as an excuse to do nothing about the problem, even though the overall effect of our actions is extremely obvious.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#125

Post by dmingod666 »

generalizations wrote: post #114
labster wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a climatologist by education and a dabbler in politics, I think you are radically misjudging the ability of most people to have rational discussions about unwelcome statistics. If you say severe weather will increase by 20% due to climate change, people will hear that there’s an 80% chance weather will stay the same. And they say I’m just being alarmist. When I say that this storm may have been enhanced by climate…

One of the big arguments against climate change is the suspicion they "the scientists are lying". You're taking away the credibility of the entire field.

1 - Making predictions about the future with certainty is not something that is generally considered in the realm of mortals. 2 - People can distrust models as being inaccurate and bad at predicting the future.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#126

Post by generalizations »

dmingod666 wrote: post #125
generalizations wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the big arguments against climate change is the suspicion they "the scientists are lying". You're taking away the credibility of the entire field.

1 - Making predictions about the future with certainty is not something that is generally considered in the realm of mortals. 2 - People can distrust models as being inaccurate and bad at predicting the future.

1. Nobody's talking about that.

2. Of course they should be able to.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#127

Post by sanxiyn »

godelski wrote: post #103
sanxiyn wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your point that we can check prediction against reality is well taken, but honestly I think we got lucky. Knowing what we know, 50-year-old model shouldn't have been accurate. It didn't model aerosol, which we now know to be important. It's just that errors happened to cancel out.

I think you're looking to have an answer and seeking to justify that answer. There's not just one model. There's dozens of competing ones. So we have to draw one of two concussions. If climate is only model able by chance, we got lucky a lot of times. Someone should be buying a lot of lottery tickets because the science community is way luckier than the expected value. That dozens of independent research teams were a…

I am saying while 40-year-old model is likely accurate by skill, it was luck 50-year-old model produced similar results to 40-year-old model. The reason is aerosol. Agreement of multiple models doesn't invalidate this because all 70s models didn't include aerosol.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#128

Post by Breazy »

mikeyouse wrote: post #115
Breazy wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are better at sniffing out lies than they are at sniffing out whatever good intentions might have motivated those lies.

I really don’t think that’s true. Tens (hundreds?) of thousands of additional Americans are dead from Covid because they believed easily disprovable lies about the safety and efficacy of vaccines by people who have reputations for lying. Most people believe anyone they consider to be an authority. It’s too exhausting otherwise.

I didn't say people are good at sniffing out lies. I said that people are better at sniffing out lies than they are at sniffing out good intentions between those lies.

I'll phrase it another way: When you tell a lie, some people will see through it and some people will believe it. Of those who see through it, some will believe you had good intentions for lying, and some won't. These proportions all vary depending on the exact nature of the lie and the audience receiving it, but it's virtually always the case that [see through the lie] > [see through the lie AND believes it well intentioned]

Or put another way: Every time you tell a white lie, you burn your own credibility because some people will see through your lie and won't be inclined to excuse you for it.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#129

Post by dmingod666 »

contravariant wrote: post #83
xyzzyz wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, scientists lying for the benefit of stupid masses. Worked great for public health experts over past 2 years, I'm sure it'll work great for climatologists too.

Well, either way you provide a good example of the exact problem, I suppose.

Are you saying there were no white lies involved? I recollect a series of events that involved people happily spewing Nobel lies especially at the start of the pandemic.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#130

Post by onos »

tasty_freeze wrote: post #56

Statistics are tricky to think about, even for people with technical educations. Something that was a lightbulb moment when someone was discussing professional baseball players. I forget the exact point the blog was making, but it came down to this: many things in life, like the ability to throw or hit a baseball, falls on a distribution that is close enough to a gaussian distribution. But when talking about professi…

If this logic applies here then the increase in “extreme events” almost seems like a non statement. The distribution has shifted (as everyone agrees, though some debate cause) and consequently we will get more extreme events.
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