What makes group decisions go wrong and right
1–10 of 22 posts
Re: What makes group decisions go wrong and right
#2I am pretty dubious about "GroupThink" as something distinct from "politics" and "social pressure".
The canonical example is Bay Of Pigs where apparently no-one in Kennedys cabinet thought "what if the invasion fails".
I bet loads of people thought it. In fact they all thought it. It's just that no one at the decision making table was secure enough to raise the problem.
(Well that is the definition of group think. it is also the definition of failed politics, or social / peer pressure and failure to create psychological safe spaces, to have adequate feedback mechanism, etc etc)
It's important - but having a one of the cabinet raise issues is not solving the whole political decision making structure.
Democracy is still needed
Re: What makes group decisions go wrong and right
#3> results—theoretical at this point, tested mathematically and with computer simulations
I was about to say "these results are extremely unlikely to be replicable" until I saw that phrase: there are no results. She had some models. This sort of thing is hard to devise an experiment for.
I was once in a very complicated experiment designed to "prove" that group decision making was better : your group was at a house in the woods and you were trapped in an Australian bushfire. You had to pick 10 items as being important to your survival, both on your own and collectively as part of a group. Then those results were compared to the "experts" ranking; the experts being Australian fire fighters with tons of experience in this.
(Side note: I think of this every time there really IS an Australian bushfire.)
Afterwards, our boss said "I was really pleased that our group really came together and arrived at the results collaboratively."
I said "Yeah, but we all died!"
Re: What makes group decisions go wrong and right
#4> results—theoretical at this point, tested mathematically and with computer simulations I was about to say "these results are extremely unlikely to be replicable" until I saw that phrase: there are no results. She had some models. This sort of thing is hard to devise an experiment for. I was once in a very complicated experiment designed to "prove" that group decision making was better : your group was at a house in…
I find the "wisdom of crowds" vs. groupthink thing really interesting. Wisdom of crowds is definitely a thing but under fairly narrow conditions that I've never seen rigorously defined although I think people have some sense for it.
When it works it tends to work really well (e.g. http://bitmason.blogspot.com/2012/04/crowdsourcing-predictio...) but it's not very generalizable.
ADDED: To your example, I'm guessing there weren't any real experts in the group (or they were very outnumbered). So there was no "wisdom" of diverse experiences bringing something to the table.
Re: What makes group decisions go wrong and right
#5I am pretty dubious about "GroupThink" as something distinct from "politics" and "social pressure". The canonical example is Bay Of Pigs where apparently no-one in Kennedys cabinet thought "what if the invasion fails". I bet loads of people thought it. In fact they all thought it. It's just that no one at the decision making table was secure enough to raise the problem. (Well that is the definition of group think. it…
> It's just that no one at the decision making table was secure enough to raise the problem.
'The five dysfunctions of a team' is a good book about this topic. You need trust to have an efficient team. Collaboration does not work when people does not feel safe.
Re: What makes group decisions go wrong and right
#6> results—theoretical at this point, tested mathematically and with computer simulations I was about to say "these results are extremely unlikely to be replicable" until I saw that phrase: there are no results. She had some models. This sort of thing is hard to devise an experiment for. I was once in a very complicated experiment designed to "prove" that group decision making was better : your group was at a house in…
I find the "wisdom of crowds" vs. groupthink thing really interesting. Wisdom of crowds is definitely a thing but under fairly narrow conditions that I've never seen rigorously defined although I think people have some sense for it. When it works it tends to work really well (e.g. http://bitmason.blogspot.com/2012/04/crowdsourcing-predictio... ) but it's not very generalizable. ADDED: To your example, I'm guessing th…
> I'm guessing there weren't any real experts in the group
You're right. It was overwhelmingly SV types.
Re: What makes group decisions go wrong and right
#7I am pretty dubious about "GroupThink" as something distinct from "politics" and "social pressure". The canonical example is Bay Of Pigs where apparently no-one in Kennedys cabinet thought "what if the invasion fails". I bet loads of people thought it. In fact they all thought it. It's just that no one at the decision making table was secure enough to raise the problem. (Well that is the definition of group think. it…
Probably didn't apply to Bay of Pigs but something that's somewhat distinct is a desire for consensus.
It's somewhat a cultural thing (where culture can mean country/company/team). But there can be situations where someone (and it may actually be multiple people) have misgivings about an apparent consensus but feel that unanimity is more important than having a knock-down argument over some minor point. This isn't even always the wrong call--again doesn't apply to Bay of Pigs.
Re: What makes group decisions go wrong and right
#8Santa fe university has some interesting papers on groupthink as a complexity problem, and their podcast 'complexity' deals with it in several episodes.
Mirta Galesic does research in social decisionmaking, and if you're interested i would recommend the Complexity podcast episode with her https://open.spotify.com/episode/7m3lEMqnkEDgZcKesiepcn?si=A...
Re: What makes group decisions go wrong and right
#9Santa fe university has some interesting papers on groupthink as a complexity problem, and their podcast 'complexity' deals with it in several episodes. Mirta Galesic does research in social decisionmaking, and if you're interested i would recommend the Complexity podcast episode with her https://open.spotify.com/episode/7m3lEMqnkEDgZcKesiepcn?si=A...
Small correction in case others wanted to go down this rabbit hole (which I’d recommend!): It’s Santa Fe Institute, not a university
Re: What makes group decisions go wrong and right
#10> results—theoretical at this point, tested mathematically and with computer simulations I was about to say "these results are extremely unlikely to be replicable" until I saw that phrase: there are no results. She had some models. This sort of thing is hard to devise an experiment for. I was once in a very complicated experiment designed to "prove" that group decision making was better : your group was at a house in…
Traffic jam? In the woods? Further: I could see how cell towers would be overloaded in the past, but these days everyone are internet connected 24/7, so there must be enough capacity for everyone.