Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
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Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
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Re: Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
#2Maybe. Probably, though people asking for billions of dollars can hardly be considered disinterested observers.
The question really isn't "will it work?", but rather "when, how much will it cost to develop, and (most importantly) will commercial power production via fusion ever be cheaper than the alternatives?"
I see no indication tokomaks will ever be commercially viable, even if they can be made to work. The up-front cost to construct a plant will be ruinous under the rosiest of scenarios. It would probably be cheaper to fake base load power with solar cells backed by lead-acid batteries.
And laser ignition? Who knows? I would like to see someone ask these guys "Okay, assume all the technical problem are resolved the way you expect, how much is it going to cost to build a commercial power production plant?"
Re: Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
#3It'll work when someone shows it working. Until then it's just conjecture.
Re: Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
#4The short version: talking about laser inertial fusion energy, estimating 18 months away from POC in the lab, a decade away from utility scale usage if all goes well.
Re: Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
#5It'll work when someone shows it working. Until then it's just conjecture.
It's tempting to say this to avoid getting your hopes up, but there has been solid concrete progress in fusion technology over the last decade. Getting net positive fusion to occur on Earth is an _incredibly_ difficult technical challenge. It's like climbing a scientific mountain, and right now we are a few hundred meters from the top with a few more obstacles to go. So saying you won't believe it until we reach the summit discredits all the progress we have made to date.
This technology is not a matter of 'is it possible?' but 'is it technically feasible?' And the scientific community has been chipping away at the latter for a long time.
Re: Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
#6some related links
Re: Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
#7It'll work when someone shows it working. Until then it's just conjecture.
It's tempting to say this to avoid getting your hopes up, but there has been solid concrete progress in fusion technology over the last decade. Getting net positive fusion to occur on Earth is an _incredibly_ difficult technical challenge. It's like climbing a scientific mountain, and right now we are a few hundred meters from the top with a few more obstacles to go. So saying you won't believe it until we reach the…
Unfortunately due to the complexity and number of challenges, the last rock may fall on your head and knock you back to the bottom again.
I'm not saying it's a valid goal - just until the technology is useful, it's not yet viable.
Compare to unified field theory, the Higgs boson and string theory.
A pessimist is an experienced optimist :)
Re: Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
#8Maybe. Probably, though people asking for billions of dollars can hardly be considered disinterested observers. The question really isn't "will it work?", but rather "when, how much will it cost to develop, and (most importantly) will commercial power production via fusion ever be cheaper than the alternatives?" I see no indication tokomaks will ever be commercially viable, even if they can be made to work. The up-fr…
The billions of dollars of investment is nothing compared to the positive effect that this will have on our society.
The fact that this looks difficult from where we sit is not a good reason to not do the research. Many of the biggest discoveries in history looked impossible before they became ubiquitous.
Re: Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's tempting to say this to avoid getting your hopes up, but there has been solid concrete progress in fusion technology over the last decade. Getting net positive fusion to occur on Earth is an _incredibly_ difficult technical challenge. It's like climbing a scientific mountain, and right now we are a few hundred meters from the top with a few more obstacles to go. So saying you won't believe it until we reach the…
Unfortunately due to the complexity and number of challenges, the last rock may fall on your head and knock you back to the bottom again. I'm not saying it's a valid goal - just until the technology is useful, it's not yet viable. Compare to unified field theory, the Higgs boson and string theory. A pessimist is an experienced optimist :)
What are the practical implications of your pessimism?
Re: Nuclear fusion 'will work' (auto-starting audio)
#10Fusion has always been and always will be 30 years aways...