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Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

covid19.colorado.gov

631–640 of 703 posts

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, yeah, you're right. It was probably just the cold that myself, my son, and my wife got after being exposed to someone that had symptomatic, PCR tested Covid. I'm sure it was just a coincidence that we then all three tested positive for covid.

Wow…You definitely missed the entire point of that comment.

Did I? If I did ... sigh. But I'm not convinced! But I also wouldn't be surprised :)

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#632

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, yeah, you're right. It was probably just the cold that myself, my son, and my wife got after being exposed to someone that had symptomatic, PCR tested Covid. I'm sure it was just a coincidence that we then all three tested positive for covid.

Whoosh

I'm not convinced it wooshed! But I also wouldn't be surprised :)

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#633
post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is all about the fact that Omicron infects people who already have T-cells and aren't immunologically naive. The way out of the pandemic is our memory B-cells and T-cells. What does immunologically naive mean? And how do B-cells and T-cells help us get out of the pandemic? Trying to learn as much as possible, thanks.

B and T cells are memory cells. Your body has intrinsic, innate and humoral defense mechanisms, along with circulating neutralizing antibodies. Intrinsic and innate defenses are early and quick and children and young people have strong defenses there and they can shred viruses quickly (and sometimes so fast that people don't form any humoral memory to the infection). If you ever get a '24 hour flu' where you feel lik…

The spam filter analogy landed for me, thank you! Really appreciate the H1 anecdote as well, I did not know that.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want to lookup data on the average age of unvaxed patients currently in the ICU but so far have not found any.

That's not the metric you should look for (at least you don't need to). You should look at the average age of unvaccinated people. That way you can estimate the prior probability of infection. You can go here: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-cover... From that, you can figure out that there are more people unvaccinated under 12 years old, than in the entire rest of the population, by a large ma…

Its good to see that its mostly young people who are at lower risk that are of the unvaxed, however the majority of ICU cases in Canada are still of the unvaxed, so that's why I am curious what is the average age of the unvaxed in the ICU. If 92-99% of people over 60 are vaxed, but its the 60+ demographic of unvaxed taking up ICU spaces, what more can be demanded by the government? Forcing younger people who are unvaxed might not reduce ICU cases very much.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why are our hospitals overloaded with covid patients?

They aren’t

Are you suggesting that the footage of crowded hospitals and horror stories from my own family members who work in healthcare are entirely fabricated?

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#636

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point that is the best case. COVID zero is a pipe dream, there are just too many vaccine refusers and too many people refusing to do anything to avoid spreading the virus. If COVID follows the typical evolutionary pattern of viruses and becomes less dangerous, we can get back to normal life -- the question is how long that will take.

I'm not sure what basis you have for assuming it will evolve to be less dangerous, Since it still leaves most of its host alive I can't think of a mechanism that would prevent it from staying equally deadly, except of course that most of the population will have some degree of immunity. This pandemic will inevitably end, after which Covid-19 may stay endemic, but Covid-19 becoming endemic and the pandemic ending aren…

It's not an absolute but it is a strong tendency which seems evident with omicron.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muller's_ratchet

Noteworthy exception in virology is Marek's Disease: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek's_disease

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterpoint; My mum nearly died of Covid, six weeks in hospital, four of which were in ICU. On leaving we discovered she no longer had epilepsy.

I'm probably being stupid, but are the down votes due to scepticism about the veracity of my comment?

My guess is because it was not a counter-point to what the previous poster wrote. Although what they wrote does not exactly address the comment being replied to either.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#638
post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Omicron didn’t kill 800 000 people. There’s also vastly more immunity (whether through vaccines or previous infections). Let’s wait and see but there’s hope it’s a different, milder disease.

(You are right of course. With the data we have now, we are quite certain that Omicron is much milder. Hopefully no lockdown is needed.) But, personally, I would like to avoid getting Omicron, as long term effects are still unclear: does "long Omicron" exist, does it affect vaccinated, and if yes how common and severe is it. There are some recent news about long Covid: it could be micro-clots.

There’s some evidence that most “long covid” symptoms (everything except loss of smell) in most people who claim to have it are not due to covid:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2787741

Specifically, reporting long covid symptoms correlates with thinking you had covid, and not as much with actually having had covid.

Of course this doesn’t mean there aren’t some real severe cases out there, but it’s probably not nearly as widespread as it seems.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#639
post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nurses take years of training. where are you going to get them during a global pandemic on immediate notice when literally every area needs additional nursing resources? nurses and doctors are leaving due to the stress of a long term pandemic. are you asserting we can just force them back into labor? that's fairly dictatorial of you. it still doesn't change that we would only revert to original levels, it would not b…

Huh didn’t say anything about forcing, please be careful about putting words in peoples mouths. I said incentivized with pay, quite the opposite of forcing.

its the natural outcome to your argument. there simply is no way to increase the supply of highly trained specialists within even a year timeframe.

'incentives' won't help. there simply isn't enough supply in aggregate. and they are not leaving because of a lack of pay they're leaving due to the stress of dealing with assholes on the daily. cash isn't going to fix that problem.

the only option left in such a scenario is literally mandating they return to work. which doesn't nothing be return you to initial workforce levels it doesn't increase capacity.

we're seeing this right now with the national guard 'mobilization' in some areas. they're literally doing nothing but sitting with patients and other menial tasks that don't require training. they're basically just in the way.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#640
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scary thing is. Milder disease is a constant factor improvement in hospitalization. But faster spreading (higher R value) is an exponential worsening in hospitalization. It's probably better to have a 50% hospitalization rate and an R value of 0.8 than a 5% hospitalization rate and an R value of 2. After 3 'generations' of spreading the second situation already has more hospitalizations.

An R value of .8 would quickly go extinct.

Exactly!
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