Live data from Hacker News

What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

loc.gov

541–550 of 659 posts

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#541
post #283

Going to be "that guy" and say that almost everything he accurately predicted was already commonplace or on the rise in the 1920s. - Commercial flights had started a decade earlier. There were even successful transatlantic flights. - The women empowerment and feminism movement was in full swing. Women had just got the right to vote. A large percentage had careers and even unions. - Wireless radio and telegraph were e…

While "food pills" are obviously wrong, I think the general concept of "prepared food" vs "cooking" is decently accurate.

Paper mache furniture no but disposable furniture, yeah, kind of.

Private dwellings you could maybe stretch to make some sort of comparison to rates of renting vs owning but that is a stretch.

On nationalized industries and trust busting we seem to have gone against his prediction.

Regarding "no more opportunity" I think the possibility of The Information Age was not even in the same dimension as this guy's RADAR.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#542
post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not the case, but people keep wringing their hands about how inflation robs the poor of the ~$500 they have in their savings accounts, while ignoring how much it helps the middle-class mortgage owner who is in fixed-rate debt for a million dollars. They get away with it because they don't make the distinction between price inflation and asset inflation. The cost of bread doubling is a huge problem for the poor,…

Let's use an example that might look familiar. If inflation robs the poor person of the $500 and helps the middle class person with a mortgage.... all other things being equal, we transferred wealth from the poor person to the middle class person. yay, with me so far? By the same account, if the middle class person is helped a little bit by inflation, (but also has some cash) the rich person who is leveraged many tim…

> If inflation robs the poor person of the $500 and helps the middle class person with a mortgage.... all other things being equal, we transferred wealth from the poor person to the middle class person. yay, with me so far?

No, I'm not with you, because it's not the poor person who is fronting a million bucks in cash that the middle class person borrows, in order to buy the house.

For the obvious reason that he doesn't have a million dollars to lend out.

FYI, corporate debt is ~60% of household debt in the United States. (~10T vs 15T). Corporate cash balances are ~4T, and household cash balances are ~5T. [1] Net corporate debt is ~6T, and net household debt is ~10T.

You look at these numbers, and you tell me - who benefits more from having debt inflated away?

[1] https://www.valuepenguin.com/banking/average-savings-account...

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would have been perfectly Constitutional until the Supreme Court changed their interpretation of the 2nd Amendment in the Heller case. > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_of_Columbia_v._Heller

IANAL, but I think there was no interpretation until the Supreme Court made that ruling. The Second Amendment was in a quantum state before that, both an individual right and not. When it becomes necessary to clarify something, then SCOTUS collapses the wave function in that particular area of law.

Nah Heller is the outlier here. Here's the Wikipedia page for its precedent, Miller: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#544

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think he did. Alimony and child support do apply to women as well as men in the US, though it's obviously not equally distributed today. Even if we assume that's not because of a flawed system, I can think of several reasons it might be the case. For example, any or all of the following could cause that in a fair system: * wage earners are still disproportionately men * women tend to be much more likely to re…

Men pay ~95% of the dollars given/taken for child support in this country. It applies to women but only in a very very marginal way. Men going from >99% to 95% of child support costs isn't really a noteworthy change and doesn't align with a prediction that it would be meaningfully different.

[deleted]

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s probably a waste of time to argue this, but the arguments for central banking were the same as the arguments put forth by Alexander Hamilton. More stability, greater resilience, etc. The arguments against it were vague references to tyranny, orchestrated by people whose wealth is generated from resource extraction and inherited wealth.

Inflationary monetary policy is wealth transfer into the upper class without most people realizing it. Wealth, be it institutions or individuals, will always push for central banking as it entrenches their power.

> Inflationary monetary policy is wealth transfer into the upper class

No, it is a means of wealth transfer to the government without raising taxes. Where does the trillions in deficit spending come from? Inflation!

The politicians, of course, know this. But they keep up the misdirection by blaming it on greedy capitalists and/or unions.

The notion that it is for monetary stability is also propaganda. Milton Friedman in "Monetary History" showed that instability increased after the creation of the Fed.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#546
post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's use an example that might look familiar. If inflation robs the poor person of the $500 and helps the middle class person with a mortgage.... all other things being equal, we transferred wealth from the poor person to the middle class person. yay, with me so far? By the same account, if the middle class person is helped a little bit by inflation, (but also has some cash) the rich person who is leveraged many tim…

> If inflation robs the poor person of the $500 and helps the middle class person with a mortgage.... all other things being equal, we transferred wealth from the poor person to the middle class person. yay, with me so far? No, I'm not with you, because it's not the poor person who is fronting a million bucks in cash that the middle class person borrows, in order to buy the house. For the obvious reason that he doesn…

You need to stop viewing money in amounts and start viewing it as % of total available money in existence.

In our contrived example, now the middle class person owns a bigger slice of the pie after the pie doubled in size due to their leverage.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very hard conversation to have on HN. It is impossible to consider that the whole of society has been created and planned in advance. To think that the upper classes manage everyone (they always did), that the schooling system produces people that are incapable of seeing the outside the box (and yet believe that they are free, nay - they 'know' it), that finance is the main weapon in the wealth extraction,…

"This is a very hard conversation to have on HN." Yes because it implies there is a conspiracy requiring God-like abilities to plan the long term outcomes of a multitude of decisions and actions many of which have conflicting goals. What is more probable, that the current situation just emerged organically or that some elite group has conspired and executed flawlessly to make the world just like it is ? There are sub…

No. God-like abilities are not required.

But lots of wealth and a clear long-term plan is.

Do you think that those individuals that own corporations, would be interested to gain greater control and wealth? Wouldn't it be good to transform society in a way that is most beneficial to them? Do you think that those individuals would be pretty ruthless in their execution of their plans? And that they would also try to be secretive? Of course.

Do you think that politicians can be encouraged to vote one way or another? Those on the blue team and on the reds? Given lots of money, lobbyists, etc? Or threats? I think it would be naive to think that they do not.

And if you control governmental policy, what would you work on? Education - to train obedient workers? Finance? The legal system? All of those.

Would you create or buy the media companies to ensure that your message is always provided, and that any negative exposure is squashed? Or get people talking about all the wrong things? Yes again.

Would you seek to increase dependence on government or increase people's self-reliance? Increase dependence on government, of course! What is the direction of travel do you think?

Would you even create a ready way to smear those who do raise the reality of the situation. A handy handle that allows you to dismiss those who are sharing information that you don't like. This too has been done - and the handle is 'conspiracy theorist'. This smear allows you to ignore whatever evidence might be being presented, and allow you to carry on with your day - no further investigation required!

My view is that if you have a good handle on human nature, specific goals and lots of wealth, it is actually not that hard to create the fish bowl. You will have created a class (the majority) of people who are too invested (financially, emotionally, spiritually) in the unnatural system you have provided. They will go to the schools you created, learn the values you want, just like their parents.

If you control the terrain, and provide the method that people use to "verify" information for themselves (and the method is accept the evidence free claims given, maybe occasionally double check something on Wikipedia) you can really go very far! No one checks anything - we are so invested in this we have to trust that "they've got this".

The truth is that "they" look at you and I as cattle. And they are just executing their best herd-management procedures. And - I think - they have been running things like this for a long time.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about horseshoe theory?

Nazism is far-right and authoritarian. Socialism is just far-left, but not necessarily authoritarian. Soviet-style socialism was very authoritarian and that's why it got its bad reputation. And you can be authoritarian and not even be on the left-right axis - Saudi Arabia is an example, as is Afghanistan now.

Both of those countries are theocratic and extremely socially conservative, which places them on the far right.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And agriculture itself is less work than we think of. Medieval peasants worked less hours than we do. https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/users/rauch/worktime/hours_...

> And agriculture itself is less work than we think of. That depends entirely upon the ratio of agriculture to other industries in a society and the level of automation. People operating today's corporate farms in the US probably work fewer hours than their 1920s analogues, but produce far more output. People operating today's small/"family" farms are probably about on par in terms of hours worked, but still produce…

It doesn't. People working today's farms (corporate and self operated) AFAICT put in more hours than their 1920s analogues as much more of their time is consumed by the other parts of the business rather than working the fields component.

They do create significantly more for their time, true. But this idea that exists that automation has given us more free time isn't quite borne out by the evidence.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#550
post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"United States does rank below the UK in terms of social mobility." It always did, because the US had slaves, and ex-slaves who had no much opportunity to 'climb'. The US now also has a giant class of a specific kind of migrant - Latinos from Central America, who are completely different than those from Spain or Cuba and the rest of the world. They exist in a kind of 'separate' USA and while technically might have th…

>Latinos from Central America, who are completely different than those from Spain or Cuba and the rest of the world. They exist in a kind of 'separate' USA and while technically might have the opportunities others have, they live in a system that is not suited to exploiting them. They are happy in their version of he US, they're family oriented, patriots - but not going to college or after the white collar trades lik…

"immigrants from Central/South America follow the same path of assimilation as immigrants from anywhere else do."

Their experience, on the whole is different.

For some obviously much more than others.

Latino Household income is 1/2 that of other recent migrant groups of colour i.e. Asians [1], who fare better than 'White Americans', a simple fact which makes your 'it's all racism' immediately, well, probably wrong.

Latino Americans are more likely to live in a segregated version of America almost due to their own choices, much like many other groups have historically, and much like 'micro enclaves' (i.e. Armenian, Persian, Chinese, Turkish) form among migrant communities across North America, UK, Australia, Germany etc. - the difference being, their cohort is enormous. Entire cities, or regions of cities are formed by relative newcomers from Central America, that doesn't happen with other migrant groups.

Latino Americans fare considerably more poorly in school, and in terms of academic achievement; the independent test scores (to which I referred) point to that, and there's ample evidence of that otherwise.

The 'it's all because of racism argument' holds little water, obviously, because other 'migrants of colour' in the US do actually very well. Would you imply that Latinos face 'racism' but migrants from India don't? That's not a very sound argument.

There's even more detailed data to refute your argument, right in the 2018 PISA references I provided. While migrants across the board fare more poorly in school than regular citizens, in the US, Canada, UK (aka Anglosphere) - once you normalize for income, migrants overall actually do as well as or better than local kids. The same is not the case in Germany or Finland (ostensibly #1 place for education). This is really strong evidence that actually, migrants tend to have 'opportunity' at least in the Anglosphere, at least the level of education.

China, India, and Europe have high, even elite standards for education at least for a minority, and migrants from those places are likely to be from the upper tranches of that spectrum. Canada mostly accepts only those with a University degree.

Migrants from Central America not only come from nations with very poor educational standards, but they're also individually, very poor. Many people cross the US border with literally nothing, often as refugees.

The contrast between Latino Americans and others holds even for rates of crime, where Latino Americans are over-represented in almost all forms of crime, while their counterparts, migrants from other nations, are actually underrepresented in crime data.

Latino Americans, unlike African Americans, are not represented as much pop culture, music, sports and media nearly to the same extent, almost as though 'they don't exist' - or rather they do, but in 'their own media'. Even during the 'Oscar's So White' uproar, nobody wanted to point out that nary 100% of the Latino prize winners were not American. Nobody seemed to care.

Go ahead and name for me some Black SNL cast members. That's easy. Now name the Latinos ones. Much harder. I can't think of a single one other than Fred Armisen who has a bit of 'Latino Heritage'.

If you take a moment to visit those areas of Texas and California, you'll realize how vast the submersion in 'Another America' many of them live in, and that it forms an existential artifact of their integration experience, which is very much unlike those of other migrants.

(Again, it's not entirely the case, obviously there are millions of Latino Americans who live as 'statistically normative Americans')

"To the extent that there's no opportunity to climb it's because of racist attitudes like yours. "

I think it's probably people screaming about this or that and throwing names around that is 'a core problem'.

Latino America is 'different enough' from the other cohorts, and they are 'big enough' that this implies differing policy measures, approaches etc..

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_U...

Post reply on HN