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Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

covid19.colorado.gov

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Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#551

Post by barbs »

awb wrote: post #445
benjaminwootton wrote: post #103

Surely this is the end of the pandemic? With an estimated 300k+ cases per day here in the UK, that is 10 million this month on top of everyone who has already had it. It’s as though nobody is ready to acknowledge the elephant in the room that Covid is nearly finished. Or am I missing something?

It doesn’t appear to be competing with COVID as much as supplementing it. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article25678686... Omicron is infecting fully vaccinated people and those with previous infection. In the early cases detected in SA, many had already had COVID and/or Delta. It would be amazing if an Omicron infection produced antibodies that fought off COVID & Delta, as that could rapidly bring rel…

> It would be amazing if an Omicron infection produced antibodies that fought off COVID & Delta, as that could rapidly bring relief to the pandemic, but I haven’t seen that suggested anywhere yet.

There has been a study that suggests Omicron infection provides protection against previous variants. This correlates with data from the UK that suggests Omicron is displacing Delta.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYLbJ0H8zdc (link to study in description).

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#553

Post by everybodyknows »

johnchristopher wrote: post #71
CodeGlitch wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a good take on it: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-latest-nhs-backlog-is-... > Professor Andrew Hayward, of University College London, earlier told Sky News that it is unlikely there will be a variant more severe than Omicron. He said: "This one will be hard to outcompete... given how successful it is." Professor Hayward added that for a "variant to stick", it needs to have "some advantage over the exist…

> He said: "There's no advantage to the virus itself becoming more severe." I thought the virus doesn't care about becoming more or less sever since its transmission capability is all that matters to it and symptoms are hidden (thus increasing transmission between individuals) in the first days of infection and that's what evolution is driving him to be: more transmissible. The fact symptoms appear sooner than delta…

Stats for symptom onset delay need to be disaggregated by vaccination status. Search text for "Kato" here:

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-12

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#554

Post by paganel »

CPLX wrote: post #514
gz5 wrote: post #84

Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD, has a nice substack from perspective of an epidemiologist. Two notable recent Omicron posts on that substack: The potentially scary aspects: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affa... The potentially good news: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/there-is-good... Obviously it is still early, but imo those 2 posts give a decent lay of the land.

I'm not a big fan of this new trend of some random Twitter personality suddenly becoming the go-to source of information on COVID. Granted, it seems true that she's actually an epidemiologist, though not unusually notable as an assistant professor at a mainstream state school. As far as I know she doesn't have unusual access to information, or a hands on role, she's drawing from public sources and doing analysis. Whi…

If it matters almost the same thing has been happening in my country (Romania), only that around these parts of the world we have FB as a replacement for Twitter.

I personally regard it as a coping mechanism for the people that follow these newly created Covid personalities, the bad thing is that in most of the cases the mainstream media copy-pastes those posts/messages and presents them as the truth, even though there are many devils hidden in the statistical details most of the time.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#555

Post by throwaway64643 »

_ea1k wrote: post #483
uhtred wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are the gatekeeper on feeling sick, now?

No, but he's fundamentally right. The symptoms described are no worse than a moderate flu.

People forget that it knocks so many people down at once in a short time, and with quarantine rules in force. It is more contagious than flu/cold. Imagine what would happen every year in winter if this becomes the new normal.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#556

Post by jatone »

awb wrote: post #500
lamontcg wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're thinking about it all wrong. Omicron and Delta are the same virus, and there's not particularly any good data that Omicron is less intrinsically virulent than Delta. Omicron infects those who are unboosted, and likely reinfects a lot of the population that is >6 months recovered from prior single infection. It is all about the fact that Omicron infects people who already have T-cells and aren't immunologically…

> It is all about the fact that Omicron infects people who already have T-cells and aren't immunologically naive. The way out of the pandemic is our memory B-cells and T-cells. What does immunologically naive mean? And how do B-cells and T-cells help us get out of the pandemic? Trying to learn as much as possible, thanks.

not a biologist, but my current understanding:

immunologically naive means that your body has no prior exposure to a virus (or its variants). basically it means it has NFC how to deal with it. so it basically has to brute force its way to a defense against the strain.

This is why you saw people with early covid cases having their immune system go haywire and a lot of the treatments for covid focused on dampening the immune system to prevent it from killing the patient.

once you've seen a virus and its variants a few times your body has 'remembers' strategies on how to fight the virus. and launches those strategies against it. sometimes depending on the mutations those strategies are less effective (omicron) and your body has to create new strategies.

B-cells and T-cells are how the body store and deploy these strategies.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#557

Post by damontal »

redanddead wrote: post #460
clcaev wrote: post #440

Don't forget about long covid. My covid infection was mostly gone in 3 days; yet 7 days after that I'm in the ER for peripheral neuropathy. Several days later I am still here with perhaps permanent loss of function. There are a few other youngsters like me with covid complications on the neurology floor, most with less than 2 comorbidities. Oh yea, the ER was packed, 6h to triage.

Wasn't there some kind of anticoagulant therapy that helped persons with long covid? it was posted here yesterday I think

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357428572_Combined_...

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#558

Post by nradov »

tasty_freeze wrote: post #526
nradov wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently in October 2020 Joe Biden believed that there was a federal solution to COVID. What has changed since then? "We're eight months into this pandemic, and Donald Trump still doesn't have a plan to get this virus under control. I do." https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1316894374500962305

I can't speak for him, and obviously tweets are short enough they can't contain it either. But apparently the plan was (a) to use federal funds and manpower to get vaccines spread as widely as possible. There was an early goals of 100M doses in the first 100 days, which was met, and another goal was set and met [1]. Another factor was sending the message: this isn't a "Democrat hoax", that it is real, is killing peop…

So what you're saying is that Biden's plan was essentially the same as Trump's plan, which also focused on using federal funds and manpower to produce and distribute vaccines as widely and rapidly as possible.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#559

Post by technothrasher »

timr wrote: post #528
sterlind wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But it's still misleading, because a lot of these hospitalizations are going to ERs for testing. I don't think this is correct. Going to the ER is not the same as being admitted to the hospital. From everything I've read, ER visits are not counted as hospitalizations anywhere.

Yes, they are. They count anyone admitted to a hospital in NYC, at any time, for any duration: https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/blob/ced762b25... > Hospitalization counts reflect the total number of people with COVID-19 ever admitted to a hospital, not the number of people currently admitted. If you go to the ER and make it to a treatment area, you're admitted. These are bright-line distinctions. Nobody…

Really? Is this a NYC thing? Any hospital I’ve ever been in has considered the ER an outpatient service, and you are only admitted to the hospital if they transfer you from the ER to inpatient care. Do they consider other outpatient services, like, say, yearly physicals, an admission as well?

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#560

Post by paganel »

henrikschroder wrote: post #444
elif wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that may be a completely rational perspective from within the United States... however, from the perspective of countries with effective containment strategies, that sounds prematurely defeatist, and also ignores the vast good that comes from containing spread for mutagenic purposes.

What effective containment strategies? Pretty much every country's strategies have completely collapsed due to Omicron. Australia currently has a wildly exponential growth of cases and twice the number of daily cases/capita compared to Sweden, to take two countries at each end of the "containment" spectrum. And that's despite Australia being in the middle of summer, despite Australia being isolated in the middle of t…

> What effective containment strategies?

I think NZ and especially China are the only ones left. I think NZ has relaxed its restrictions about 2-3 months ago and to be honest I'm a little surprised they haven't yet followed Australia's path with the exponential number of Omicron cases, but imo the very big question remains China, I have no idea how they plan to handle this going forward.

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