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Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

covid19.colorado.gov

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Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#411

Post by umvi »

benjaminwootton wrote: post #103

Surely this is the end of the pandemic? With an estimated 300k+ cases per day here in the UK, that is 10 million this month on top of everyone who has already had it. It’s as though nobody is ready to acknowledge the elephant in the room that Covid is nearly finished. Or am I missing something?

> Surely this is the end of the pandemic?

Depends on if politicians believe they can lift restrictions without negatively reflecting their career or not. There's a lot of Twitter mobs out there promoting "extreme caution" that will tank your political career if you aren't catering enough to their caution-comfort-level.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#412

Post by spurgu »

stormbrew wrote: post #273
jaywalk wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Severe outcomes are blatantly more common, per capita, in people who are not vaccinated. With omicron? I have not seen any data to support that.

I mean, it's pretty early to be drawing conclusions about this with omicron. Especially since it hit right as people in most of the vaccinated world were hitting 5-6mo since their second shots. That doesn't mean it's "unfalsifiable" it just means it hasn't been yet. That said, I don't think the null hypothesis is suddenly "vaccines do nothing" for some reason. It's clear enough it spreads more easily but that doesn't…

> I mean, it's pretty early to be drawing conclusions about this with omicron.

No it's not. Late November was too early. In mid-December we could start drawing conclusions. At this point things are becoming quite clear - we see similar trends everywhere, not just South Africa.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#413

Post by CamperBob2 »

nradov wrote: post #255
jmspring wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

I encourage everyone eligible to protect themselves by getting vaccinated, but the current thinking is that new variants are most likely to evolve in immunocompromised patients who experience prolonged infections. The vaccines aren't very effective for them. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-ma... It's also possible for new variants to evolve in animal hosts, then spread back to humans. https:…

The vaccines would (probably) have been effective on whoever gave the immunocompromised patient the disease, though.

It's not all about the individual.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#415

Post by CamperBob2 »

pier25 wrote: post #317
Scoundreller wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a vaccine reduces your cough/oozing orifice severity, wouldn’t that reduce transmission?

Technically yes, but see this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29826355

Exactly, and that comment is why mask usage in public is still important. The two-pronged approach of masking and vaccination was always going to be our best way out of this, and nothing about Omicron fundamentally changes that.

Try not to get sick. If you do get sick, don't spread it. If you do spread it, try to spread less of it. Defense in depth.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#416

Post by twox2 »

HNDen21 wrote: post #392
phonypc wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmmm... mild symptoms after being vaccinated. It's almost like the vaccine worked or something. How weird.

I have 5 people in the house, 1 vaccinated, 4 not.. the ones that were not had a 2 day fever... the one vaccinated (me) had no fever but just a cough for 3-4 days. All in all just like a mild flu

Anecdotal stories don't paint an accurate picture. I live in NYC and had Covid xmas week. It was ROUGH. (I'm double jabbed.) I also know unvaxxed people (0 shots) that just had a little sniffle and bounced back in 2 days. I also know of a seemingly healthy young lady that tested positive and died 3 days later.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#417

Post by lukifer »

parthdesai wrote: post #384
shrikant wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Congratulations. Both my wife and I (double vaxxed for 5 months, not boosted yet although were just about to do so) caught Omicron-flavoured Covid in the lead-up to Christmas and it wiped us out each for 2-3 days each, with a combination of fatigue, aches, fever, and violent coughing. Certainly worse than any cold or flu we've had up until that point. I still have a pretty nasty cough and a throat inflammation. Aren'…

so the answer is to stay locked down and screw over small businesses and tons of workers every winter because a subset of people have harsher symptoms?

Every policy has tradeoffs. We could save around 20,000 lives per year (in the US) with a simple policy change: just cap all speed limits at 45 mph.

I think it's a fair critique that some lockdown measures go too far (particularly those with low efficacy, or "safety theater"), but it's more helpful to take about specifics, rather than "lockdowns good" or "lockdowns bad".

At some point (and maybe it's now?), we'll need to shift our thinking from "pandemic" to "endemic". COVID is going to be with us from now on, and will start to look more like flu season (viruses tend to evolve to be less deadly over time). And I don't say that to trivialize it; COVID has given me much greater awareness of the impact of the seasonal flu on the elderly and the immuno-compromised.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#418

Post by teachrdan »

politician wrote: post #140
KennyBlanken wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last night on NPR there was a scientist cautioning people who think this means the end because it'll burn itself out. His point was that nobody predicted delta, and nobody predicted omicron. There's no telling how serious the next variant will be (and arguably there's much greater chance of a variant given how many people are getting infected.)

Wasn't the point of Dr. Strangelove a warning against excessive worrying about a theoretical future viz a viz the mine shaft gap?

...the missile gap?

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#419

Post by peder »

shrikant wrote: post #260
spurgu wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have omicron right now (4-5 months after 2nd jab, so pretty much no effect from that) and it's just like a common cold (certainly wouldn't call it "battling omicron"). I have zero problems with getting this each year.

Congratulations. Both my wife and I (double vaxxed for 5 months, not boosted yet although were just about to do so) caught Omicron-flavoured Covid in the lead-up to Christmas and it wiped us out each for 2-3 days each, with a combination of fatigue, aches, fever, and violent coughing. Certainly worse than any cold or flu we've had up until that point. I still have a pretty nasty cough and a throat inflammation. Aren'…

This is one of the most privileged takes I've ever read. OH GOOD HEAVENS. You were sick for a whole 2-3 days. Best lockdown the country to avoid what most people experience 1+ times per year.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#420

Post by nradov »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #413
nradov wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I encourage everyone eligible to protect themselves by getting vaccinated, but the current thinking is that new variants are most likely to evolve in immunocompromised patients who experience prolonged infections. The vaccines aren't very effective for them. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-ma... It's also possible for new variants to evolve in animal hosts, then spread back to humans. https:…

The vaccines would (probably) have been effective on whoever gave the immunocompromised patient the disease, though. It's not all about the individual.

Unfortunately there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect the immunocompromised. They will all be exposed.

The main benefit of vaccines is in reducing symptom severity. They only produce a limited and temporary reduction in transmission risk.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/94646

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y

https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

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