Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado • Hacker News Board

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#211

Post by parkingrift » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 5:15 PM UTC

ianhawes wrote: post #86

parkingrift wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's probably better to have a 50% hospitalization rate and an R value of 0.8 than a 5% hospitalization rate and an R value of 2. After 3 'generations' of spreading the second situation already has more hospitalizations. Sure, but those aren’t the only choices. Over the last 30 days the daily case average has increased by 500%. During that same time the daily average hospitalized has risen 100%. And the test positi…

The testing positivity rate is relatively useless at this point. For example, in my State, there is no way to report a positive test from a rapid result. Only PCR tests administered by a medical professional are considered valid for statistical purposes, even though the government is giving out free rapid tests.

I don't think it's useless. I think it's a pretty good indication that there are many multiples of actual cases for every confirmed case. If covid cases have risen 5,000% in 30 days, but hospitalizations have only risen 100%, that's an extraordinarily positive outcome.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#212

Post by s1artibartfast » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 5:15 PM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #148

CodeGlitch wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a good take on it: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-latest-nhs-backlog-is-... > Professor Andrew Hayward, of University College London, earlier told Sky News that it is unlikely there will be a variant more severe than Omicron. He said: "This one will be hard to outcompete... given how successful it is." Professor Hayward added that for a "variant to stick", it needs to have "some advantage over the exist…

This doesn't make any sense, unless the variants directly compete against each other. But what we've seen with Omicron is that it can infect someone who just had Delta. So if there's a mutation that can infect someone that had Omicron, but is more severe that mutation can flourish, even if it is less transmissible than Omicron. It just flourishes in parallel.

They do directly compete, this s Is why delta is shrinking in these places.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#213

Post by etchalon » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

monological wrote: post #113

etchalon wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if we can say it's "over". People were saying the same thing after the Delta waves started subsiding and behold … Omicron.

But now we’ll be able to reach herd immunity. Very mild and highly transmissible. This is the best possible outcome.

There's no reason to believe that we'll achieve herd immunity to anything beyond Omicron. There's a reason Flu vaccines are a thing you get every year, even if you've had the flu.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#214

Post by elif » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

hitpointdrew wrote: post #142

benjaminwootton wrote: post #103

Surely this is the end of the pandemic? With an estimated 300k+ cases per day here in the UK, that is 10 million this month on top of everyone who has already had it. It’s as though nobody is ready to acknowledge the elephant in the room that Covid is nearly finished. Or am I missing something?

>Surely this is the end of the pandemic? Yes, welcome to the endemic. Covid is here to stay, it doesn't matter if 100% of the world were vaccinated tommrow, covid would not go away. It doesn't matter if you get the vaccination or not, in your life time you WILL get covid (just like the flu, no one escapes it, you typically get the flu about every decade or so regardless of shots). We need to just accept this and move…

I think that may be a completely rational perspective from within the United States... however, from the perspective of countries with effective containment strategies, that sounds prematurely defeatist, and also ignores the vast good that comes from containing spread for mutagenic purposes.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#215

Post by cduzz » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

jaywalk wrote: post #192

causality0 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the fact you can catch it over and over. My wife is currently battling Omicron after we both had covid at the start of last year. Fully vaccinated and boosted three weeks ago, caught it anyway. With an infected population this massive mutations happen fast enough to cause a new wave before the old one burns out.

You say "over and over" but Omicron is the first variant that actually evades immunity (both natural and vaccine-induced) in a meaningful way. What we don't know is the level of immunity that an Omicron infection will provide. It could actually confer immunity to both itself and previous variants, which would effectively end the pandemic.

If something's a one a million event, happening billions of times per day, it'll happen pretty much constantly.

This one, omicron, seems to mostly infect nasal passages and upper respiratory tract. The next, maybe after spending 2 years spreading across all the weasels of upper winchester county, may affect the lungs again.

This is a lottery that's less fun to play...

(edited for clarity)

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#216

Post by pikma » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

TylerE wrote: post #187

pikma wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was it worse than a flu for them, or roughly similar?

Normal flu for my dad, a bit worse than that from mom. She basically hasn't gotten out of bed for about 8 days except to use the bathroom.

Gee, 8 days is a lot, yeah that feels like worse than a flu. I hope they both feel better soon.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#217

Post by gopalv » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

Scoundreller wrote: post #159

pier25 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fully vaccinated and boosted three weeks ago, caught it anyway. Vaccines do not prevent contagion but reduce the chances of severe symptoms. Also AFAIK vaccines do not lower transmission either.

If a vaccine reduces your cough/oozing orifice severity, wouldn’t that reduce transmission?

> wouldn’t that reduce transmission?

Lowered symptoms on droplets would be better, but a lot of in-person workplaces have a "do you have a fever?" check before they issue you any sick leave.

Not having a fever and looking like a mild cold in winter would cause at least my cousin's employer to ask her to come in and wear a mask at work (manufacturing, so she wears a P100 respirator anyway).

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#218

Post by zucked » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 5:16 PM UTC

bratwurst3000 wrote: post #152

Just giving my 2 cents. Got boosted 3 weeks ago. Now I have covid. Everything is fine, feels like the least ill i ever was from anything. But I wanted to state that omnicron is a beast. I did wear a ffp2 mask with nearly every social contact and if we didnt wear mask we would test ourself. I am sure I got it from the streets from people passing by. That said I am in the french alps and it was vacation time here. And…

Similar story - boosted mid Nov. Travelled over Christmas. Have been wearing K95 masks as properly as I can as often as I can when out in public. No real symptoms to speak of, but took a PCR just to be sure. Bing! Positive.

Not sure from where I got it, but the contagiousness of Omicron is impressive.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#219

Post by stormbrew » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 5:17 PM UTC

jaywalk wrote: post #194

phonypc wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmmm... mild symptoms after being vaccinated. It's almost like the vaccine worked or something. How weird.

Plenty of unvaccinated (the vast majority, in fact) also experience mild symptoms. It's almost like you've got an unfalsifiable way to always say "it worked!"

> Plenty of unvaccinated (the vast majority, in fact) also experience mild symptoms.

This is true of essentially all diseases except some very very rare exceptions that also tend to burn out very quickly. That's just how disease spread works, mild cases help the virus propagate. It's not like the virus is a mustache twirling villain that wants to murder you, it takes a fairly specific balance to obtain long term survival.

> It's almost like you've got an unfalsifiable way to always say "it worked!"

There's plenty of evidence to support the idea that "it works", and actually quite a lot of evidence to contradict the idea that "it doesn't work". Severe outcomes are blatantly more common, per capita, in people who are not vaccinated. The only way you get to any other conclusion is if you just plain don't trust any evidence presented, in which case there is literally nothing that is falsifiable for you and you may as well believe covid-19 is evil unicorns or something.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#220

Post by causality0 » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 5:17 PM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #196

causality0 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the fact you can catch it over and over. My wife is currently battling Omicron after we both had covid at the start of last year. Fully vaccinated and boosted three weeks ago, caught it anyway. With an infected population this massive mutations happen fast enough to cause a new wave before the old one burns out.

"battling Omicron" Can you give us some indication of how severe your symptoms are? Mostly we're hearing that if you've been vaccinated and/or you've had covid in the past that omicron is relatively mild.

Muscle aches, chest pain, headache, and severe coughing fits that won't let her sleep and scare me when I hear them from the other room. After being awake for two days and one of them dropping her blood oxygen to 87 I made her go to the emergency room where they gave her prescription cough medicine that finally let her sleep.

Omicron is less dangerous than Delta. It's still dangerous.