Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado • Hacker News Board

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#131

Post by gpm » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 4:49 PM UTC

callumprentice wrote: post #123

Can anyone point me to a reliable source that explains in layman's terms why one cancels out the other and it's not possible to have both (say) delta and omicron at once. Somewhat tongue in cheek, but since cancellation seems to be the case, could we not create a version that was 100x more transmissible than omicron but completely benign? Cane toads in Australia aside ;)

> could we not create a version that was 100x more transmissible than omicron but completely benign? Cane toads in Australia aside ;)

You overestimate our abilities to make viruses that do what we want, let alone to make viruses that do what we want and won't evolve into viruses that do what we don't want after being released into the wild.

This is also basically saying "can't we make a transmissible vaccine", and as much as I like vaccine mandates, I think there would be significant ethical issues with that.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#132

Post by rich_sasha » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 4:49 PM UTC

OJFord wrote: post #94

rich_sasha wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far in the UK hospitalisations are increasing, but not dramatically so. There's also brouhaha about how London (where the wave is the worst) is at its peak, or already on the way down. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ [bear in mind, the hospitalisation number is not quite what it seems. It is "people in hospital who happen to have Covid", not "people who got Covid so bad they need to be hospitalised". So if you ha…

Hm, that's [that 'bear in mind'] correct: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/about-data#daily-and... Just wanted to check that since (at at least one London hospital) they're on different wards (as in, even discounting that obviously you don't want 'broken leg with covid' on a general 'broken bones' ward with neg/query patients) so seems odd to me they'd report data like that vs. those needing treatment for it.

My understanding is, there's a fair few people at hospital with "bad Covid" who aren't in Intensive Care. For example, if you have steroids and Remdesivir given to you, you already need to be hospitalised.

So there's at least three categories: people with really bad Covid, people with Covid bad enough they can't be at home, but not (at the time) awful, and people who don't suffer with Covid at all but could infect others, and something else is wrong with them.

I think they are all challenging to the healthcare system in different ways. Ultimately, if you project a complex situation onto R^1, it can't be too accurate.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#133

Post by rhino369 » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 4:49 PM UTC

benjaminwootton wrote: post #103

Surely this is the end of the pandemic? With an estimated 300k+ cases per day here in the UK, that is 10 million this month on top of everyone who has already had it. It’s as though nobody is ready to acknowledge the elephant in the room that Covid is nearly finished. Or am I missing something?

>Or am I missing something?

The possibility that a new variant arises that substantially evades both Delta and Omicron immunity.

But it will probably turn endemic after this. There won't be any virgin hosts anymore.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#134

Post by nickysielicki » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 4:49 PM UTC

benjaminwootton wrote: post #103

Surely this is the end of the pandemic? With an estimated 300k+ cases per day here in the UK, that is 10 million this month on top of everyone who has already had it. It’s as though nobody is ready to acknowledge the elephant in the room that Covid is nearly finished. Or am I missing something?

It’s just politicians trying to save face at this point. Trillions of dollars lost and total debasement of western currencies was all to arrive at the natural solution to a virus that was destined to become endemic from the very start: let it play out.

Two administrations, one from both parties. Same fed chair. Same people at the CDC and WHO. It’s not partisan. It’s institutional failure.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#135

Post by antidaily » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 4:50 PM UTC

polski-g wrote: post #128

causality0 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the fact you can catch it over and over. My wife is currently battling Omicron after we both had covid at the start of last year. Fully vaccinated and boosted three weeks ago, caught it anyway. With an infected population this massive mutations happen fast enough to cause a new wave before the old one burns out.

You can also catch the cold over and over. 1 or 2 colds a year is pretty typical.

Or crabs. Not me, a buddy of mine.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#136

Post by butterisgood » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 4:50 PM UTC

benjaminwootton wrote: post #103

Surely this is the end of the pandemic? With an estimated 300k+ cases per day here in the UK, that is 10 million this month on top of everyone who has already had it. It’s as though nobody is ready to acknowledge the elephant in the room that Covid is nearly finished. Or am I missing something?

Yes it is now endemic.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#137

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 4:50 PM UTC

mprovost wrote: post #49

rich_sasha wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far in the UK hospitalisations are increasing, but not dramatically so. There's also brouhaha about how London (where the wave is the worst) is at its peak, or already on the way down. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ [bear in mind, the hospitalisation number is not quite what it seems. It is "people in hospital who happen to have Covid", not "people who got Covid so bad they need to be hospitalised". So if you ha…

The "peak" in London last week (if it really was the peak) had 1 in 10 people infected. Those are huge numbers, even if most people don't need hospitalisation.

[deleted]

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#138

Post by throw10920 » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 4:50 PM UTC

ipspam wrote: post #125

benjaminwootton wrote: post #103

Surely this is the end of the pandemic? With an estimated 300k+ cases per day here in the UK, that is 10 million this month on top of everyone who has already had it. It’s as though nobody is ready to acknowledge the elephant in the room that Covid is nearly finished. Or am I missing something?

Quoted post unavailable.

You might make some valid points, but it's really hard to see them when you don't cite sources, and when you deliberately use inflammatory language like "cronies" - and that's against the spirit of HN anyway.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#139

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 4:51 PM UTC

rafale wrote: post #107

nradov wrote: post #93

The CDC publishes a weekly chart showing the proportions of circulating variants for the US as a whole. The Delta variant had previously driven most other variants near extinction, and now Omicron is doing the same to Delta. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#circulatingVariant...

Our savior Omicron. The ultimate vaccinator. Nature finally had mercy on us.

[deleted]

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#140

Post by politician » Thu, Jan 06, 2022, 4:51 PM UTC

KennyBlanken wrote: post #108

__turbobrew__ wrote: post #4

omicron has solidly taken over Vancouver BC. Anecdotal evidence: in the past two years (except this past week) I have only known 1 person who got covid. In the past week I know over 20 people who have got covid. I sincerely hope that this is the beginning of the end of covid lockdowns. omicron is taking the world by storm and I wouldn't be surprised if the entire world gets it in the next few weeks.

Last night on NPR there was a scientist cautioning people who think this means the end because it'll burn itself out. His point was that nobody predicted delta, and nobody predicted omicron. There's no telling how serious the next variant will be (and arguably there's much greater chance of a variant given how many people are getting infected.)

Wasn't the point of Dr. Strangelove a warning against excessive worrying about a theoretical future viz a viz the mine shaft gap?