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Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

covid19.colorado.gov

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Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#81

Post by pjc50 »

__turbobrew__ wrote: post #4

omicron has solidly taken over Vancouver BC. Anecdotal evidence: in the past two years (except this past week) I have only known 1 person who got covid. In the past week I know over 20 people who have got covid. I sincerely hope that this is the beginning of the end of covid lockdowns. omicron is taking the world by storm and I wouldn't be surprised if the entire world gets it in the next few weeks.

It appears to be infeasible to stop omicron through non-extreme lockdown measures. What I'm not yet clear on is:

- to what extent does recovering from Omicron prevent Delta?

- how long does that immunity last?

We probably are going to have to live with this, but I'm not sure many countries have caught up to the healthcare staffing implications of that.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#82

Post by shmel »

oakesm9 wrote: post #65
samwillis wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in the UK there seems to be some sort of cold that is ticking all the same symptom boxes as Omicron (sore throat, headache, nasal congestion, cough) but “isn’t Codiv”. My whole family had it before Christmas. I would describe it a rotten cold, we all sat on the sofa for like 5 days but weren’t bed bound, tested negative with LFTs the whole time (each did one at least every other day for a week). We isolated anyw…

The official guidence is that LFT are only to be used if you DO NOT have symptoms. If you have symptoms you should instead be getting a PCR (lab) test. Official guidence: > There are different tests you can get to check if you have coronavirus (COVID-19). The test you need depends on why you're getting tested. > The 2 main tests are: > PCR tests – mainly for people with symptoms, they're sent to a lab to be checked >…

Well, the symptoms according to the NHS are fever, cough and loss of smell/taste. If you have runny nose and sore throat, you don't have coronavirus symptoms. Technically. So you take a LFT, right?

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#84

Post by gz5 »

Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD, has a nice substack from perspective of an epidemiologist. Two notable recent Omicron posts on that substack:

The potentially scary aspects: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affa...

The potentially good news: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/there-is-good...

Obviously it is still early, but imo those 2 posts give a decent lay of the land.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#85

Post by gjs278 »

Semaphor wrote: post #64
sdze wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germans are notoriously „under-tested“

My sister recently had her PCR anniversary of 100 tests. OTOH, I’m at 2 quick tests and one PCR, but I work from home and only leave for stores. Not sure about the under-tested in general, all the public testing stations were always super busy.

No post body was provided.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#86

Post by ianhawes »

parkingrift wrote: post #69
rocqua wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scary thing is. Milder disease is a constant factor improvement in hospitalization. But faster spreading (higher R value) is an exponential worsening in hospitalization. It's probably better to have a 50% hospitalization rate and an R value of 0.8 than a 5% hospitalization rate and an R value of 2. After 3 'generations' of spreading the second situation already has more hospitalizations.

> It's probably better to have a 50% hospitalization rate and an R value of 0.8 than a 5% hospitalization rate and an R value of 2. After 3 'generations' of spreading the second situation already has more hospitalizations. Sure, but those aren’t the only choices. Over the last 30 days the daily case average has increased by 500%. During that same time the daily average hospitalized has risen 100%. And the test positi…

The testing positivity rate is relatively useless at this point. For example, in my State, there is no way to report a positive test from a rapid result. Only PCR tests administered by a medical professional are considered valid for statistical purposes, even though the government is giving out free rapid tests.

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#87

Post by ngcc_hk »

_Microft wrote: post #44
tomp wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe but “exponential growth” is a conspiracy theory promoted by epidemiologists. In reality, growth follows the S-curve, so a milder, faster spreading disease will also saturate the population (flatten the S-curve) much sooner, so overall the impact will be much less.

You want to keep the number of cases in a range that the health care system still can deal with. Reaching the the flat part of an S-curve (i.e. infecting everyone as fast as possible) is NOT desirable because that leads to many cases in very short term.

That what I hope for. It looks like uk is like this. But is USA like this?

Re: Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado

#88

Post by shmel »

CodeGlitch wrote: post #68
akmarinov wrote: post #6

If it’s milder than Delta - then that’s good right? Or do the increased cases lead to more hospitalizations than Delta?

Here's a good take on it: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-latest-nhs-backlog-is-... > Professor Andrew Hayward, of University College London, earlier told Sky News that it is unlikely there will be a variant more severe than Omicron. He said: "This one will be hard to outcompete... given how successful it is." Professor Hayward added that for a "variant to stick", it needs to have "some advantage over the exist…

I remember 6 months ago some researchers also said that Delta was so contagious that it is very unlikely that even more contagious variant arises. Oh well, sometimes unlikely events happen.
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