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What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

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Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#131

The reality is that no such projection is plausible. Could a human being living in 1903, before the Wright Brothers have predicted a moon landing only 66 years later? Could anyone in 1990 have predicted the smartphone, let alone 1922? Only one prediction is worthy of confidence - the world of technology will increase at an exponential rate...and the world will improve. We lament progress, but few of us would choose 1…

> Could anyone in 1990 have predicted the smartphone

Yes. It was called a communicator in fiction of the day. Did they get the exact details right, or every use case (e.g. replacing flashlights and music players)? No. Some of them used holograms from watches or big old handsets with a screen instead of a keypad but still big ear cups. But a portable device that could be used for voice calls, video calls, information lookup, note taking, certainly existed in fiction prior to the 90s.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#132
post #15

>Similar reforms apply to cooking, a great deal of which will survive among old fashioned people, but a great deal more of which will probably be avoided by the use of synthetic foods. This is very interesting especially if you think "synthetic foods" not just literally but as take out, processed products and such. I know a lot of young professional people who technically never cook. Like almost never and whatever th…

As a person who has been exclusively on something similar to soylent for entire 2021, it is certainly possible today albeit not via 4 pills.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#134

It's interesting to compare this to the WEF future projections: https://www.forbes.com/sites/worldeconomicforum/2016/11/10/s... Especially with regards to this passage:: "In 2022 [economic development] will be as finished as it is to-day in England. American wealth will then be either developed or known, and all of it will belong to somebody. There will be no more opportunity in America than there is in England to-da…

> Welcome To 2030: I Own Nothing, Have No Privacy And Life Has Never Been Better Let me translate “you are slaves and you rent everything. We base your ability to purchase on a social credit score. But we let you rent houses in our artificially limited VR world.” I don’t make much of predictions like these. It’s ALWAYS a safe bet to assume people will lose liberty. To the point the FED was created in 1913, research w…

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Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#135
post #104

> The people of 2022 will probably never see a wire outlined against the sky... Haha, so wrong. All I see is power lines everywhere, and I can't unsee them. SO ugly.

Actually he may have been right - they're still there, but I never notice them because they just blend into the background now.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#136
post #15

>Similar reforms apply to cooking, a great deal of which will survive among old fashioned people, but a great deal more of which will probably be avoided by the use of synthetic foods. This is very interesting especially if you think "synthetic foods" not just literally but as take out, processed products and such. I know a lot of young professional people who technically never cook. Like almost never and whatever th…

As a person who has been exclusively on something similar to soylent for entire 2021, it is certainly possible today albeit not via 4 pills.

Ok I will bite, what are you on ?

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#137
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In none of the hard Sci-Fi I read as a child did they say "I needn't worry for light, as I had my portable cellphone" Will you have AR displays that hide the information an make a room otherwise appear devoid of technology? Yes...because normal people don't fetishize technology and HGTV tells me it should be hidden from sight. Will it be a display projected on your contact lenses, a mist excreted from a rod with lase…

70s and 80s scifi media frequently depict floppy disks being used well into the 22nd century and beyond, despite the fact that optical and solid state storage did exist in some form back then. Either is is done to make the scenes relatable to the contemporary audience, or human beings really lack the abiltiy to imagine things they have no empirical experience with.

TV/Movie scifi is mostly the last place you'd look for bold imaginings of future technology. Star Trek had a few hits with communicators, PADDs, and touch screen controls, but generally designs are very much of their time.

It's very obvious with modern scifi where controls are usually holographic projections with cyan grids and twirly animations. After a while these designs become lazy tropes - like villains who wear chunky black leather.

Compare with something like Olaf Stapledon's Last and First Men, which is far more adventurous about possible futures.

The background problem is that the 20th century was set up for an explosion of invention by the late 19th, with Maxwell/Heaviside leading the charge and eventually leading to game changer developments like relativity and quantum theory. In math Boolean algebra fell out almost by accident from attempts to find a theory of computability which eventually led to modern computing.

These were all bedrock insights which completely changed what was possible in the physical world.

Where's the modern equivalent? There isn't one. Insights at that level more or less stopped happening after the discovery of DNA and the creation of Shannon's Information Theory.

Quantum Gravity might be the next game changer, but it also might not, and in any case it's an unknown distance away. The rest is detail work, not ground breaking transformation.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#138

And in almost one hundred years, we still haven’t made much progress on the fundamental questions in quantum mechanics, other than perhaps Bell’s theorem in the 60s. I wonder if Einstein, Dirac, et al. would have thought in the early 1930s that the measurement problem would remain unresolved and that there would still not be a consistent theory for QM and GR almost a century later.

His comments about the slowing pace of scientific advancement really struck me. I have felt the same thing, often. That in 1922, we were actually somewhat close to the end of discovering all the really interesting things about physics: that is, those things which really shook up our understanding of the universe, but were still somehow comprehensible to our little human brains. I'm beginning to think that it wasn't just overenthusiasm that led me to be pretty disappointed when I went to get a PhD in science - it's that I grew up reading about the results of the most interesting period, scientifically, that man has ever had, which is now over.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#139
What stands out to me is the prescience in the speed and penetration of technological advancements juxtaposed with an apparent blind spot for the advancements in social change. Even the most dire or utopian science fiction of the early to mid 20th century seems to reasonably accurately predict technological changes but somehow expects that future social structures will somehow fall into place or adapt to the technology. They imagine these wild technological advancements and bludgeon them into their current-day social mores.

Thinking about today, where the topic of the day is distributed trustless computing and so on, it's easy to imagine now the cat's out of the bag that in 100 years, old institutions like banks, notaries, record-keeping (Hansards etc) could be obsolete, knowledge becomes distributed and every human commands one or more nodes in a constant system of cross-referencing - clients and servers cease to be relevant as a concept, information is just a pool you dip into as needed (with helpful AI assistants to bring things to your attention and/or demand your attention). It could be so pervasive it wouldn't garner a second's thought in the mind of a 2122 individual. Information is just there, always, forever, and always cross-checked for correctness. Duh. (not saying this is even an ideal future, or likely, but it's a trend that's easily extrapolated)

But if that did come to pass, how does that change the fabric of society in 2122? Does the relationship between society and the products it demands and produces change significantly? Does the status-quo stay more or less the same between the workers and the organisers? Do we find a way to deal with cultural differences globally or adopt the "metaverse" and slowly fragment into virtual islands of relative ideological same-ness? These are much harder things to predict, just how in 1922 the idea of not having servants at home to do the bidding of the family matriarch seemed so far-fetched that even an imagined hundred years of progress couldn't fully erase the notion; what concepts do we see as being so firmly entrenched in our culture(s) today that no upheaval of technology could convince us they'd also be on the way out, if not obsolete, in 100 years.

I love seeing these old predictions as much for what they got right as for what they missed. I showed my 12 year old daughter this article and we had a light-hearted conversation about it but she said something that struck me; "society probably won't even be here in 100 years" - I hope that isn't true, it's not something I've directly taught her to believe, but we're surrounded on all fronts by media filled with dire predictions of humanity's collapse and self-destruction on a daily basis, so I'm going to have to work to instil some hope. I am heartened slightly as historically it seems we're really bad at predicting how society as a whole will change long-term, so I do hope we're wrong on the old boiled frogs / status-quo inertia analogies, and that our species makes some giant leaps in terms of collective environmental and social responsibility in the next 100 years.

Nothing really profound I know just a dad pondering his kids futures, fingers crossed we figure some things out.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#140
post #90

It's interesting to compare this to the WEF future projections: https://www.forbes.com/sites/worldeconomicforum/2016/11/10/s... Especially with regards to this passage:: "In 2022 [economic development] will be as finished as it is to-day in England. American wealth will then be either developed or known, and all of it will belong to somebody. There will be no more opportunity in America than there is in England to-da…

United States does rank below the UK in terms of social mobility. The notion that that is because the economic development of the country is "finished" seems weird. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/Global_Social_Mobility_Report....

"United States does rank below the UK in terms of social mobility."

It always did, because the US had slaves, and ex-slaves who had no much opportunity to 'climb'.

The US now also has a giant class of a specific kind of migrant - Latinos from Central America, who are completely different than those from Spain or Cuba and the rest of the world. They exist in a kind of 'separate' USA and while technically might have the opportunities others have, they live in a system that is not suited to exploiting them. They are happy in their version of he US, they're family oriented, patriots - but not going to college or after the white collar trades like migrants from 'everywhere else'.

Those two cohorts make the US 'very different' in terms of social mobility, and so you have a situation a bit akin to Brazil etc..

Canada and Australia are 'Immigrant States' without those cohorts, and newcomers do reasonably well or somewhere approaching 'normal' after one or two generations.

I'll bet social mobility among non-African American and Latino Americans, is about on part with Canada or Australia, and maybe even a little bit better than UK, and most of Europe (even Sweden) which also have vestiges of class.

Some indicative data here [1]. You can see mobility gap between Black and White in the US, it's very crude and subject to interpretation, but it does line up with PISA standardized testing results which show the same, that non-Black/Latino America is actually 'a lot like' Europe or Japan in terms of so many outcomes. 2018 PISA test scores here [2] (download the PDF).

FYI I'm not 'endorsing' or 'supporting' any kind of system here, just pointing out that the the US has a 'multi system dynamic' different than other places and it's essential to understanding how it works esp. on a comparative basis. FYI a lot of E/S European countries are poor, and represent similar kind of 'isolated communities' which is why gini coefficient etc. for the entirety of the EU is much worse than it is for any individual EU state.

From 1922 until today - most of our progress has been incremental. Other than satellites, and maybe computers, it seems as though they ave predicted a lot. Maybe not quite the social impact of them however.

What will change in 2122?

If we have successful Fusion at scale, it could change a lot of things.

If not, maybe it won't be that different: longer lives, more fashion. Maybe we figure out Climate Change and get plastics out of he ocean, but we'll probably still be arguing about 'what is normal'

Eventually, we'll be able to colour our skin, eyes, hair very readily, we'll have cosmetic limbs (i.e. pair of wings that don't to much but flap a bit). And maybe mechanical uterus - where you provide the eggs and sperm and it will make a baby in 9 months. If the identity wars are a bit complicated now just wait.

We will send a probe to Alpha Centuari and they'll be a small station on Mars, but it will be boring and young people won't even care.

Reduced population in the West and massive population booms in Africa and some other spots will crate some odd international dynamics. Africa will be much better off, but mostly still corrupt with crackpot leaders and nuclear weapons. One of them will use one on their neighbouring country.

[1] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/02/14/no-room-a...

[2] https://www.oecd.org/pisa/publications/pisa-2018-results.htm

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