Live data from Hacker News

What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

loc.gov

51–60 of 659 posts

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#51

The reality is that no such projection is plausible. Could a human being living in 1903, before the Wright Brothers have predicted a moon landing only 66 years later? Could anyone in 1990 have predicted the smartphone, let alone 1922? Only one prediction is worthy of confidence - the world of technology will increase at an exponential rate...and the world will improve. We lament progress, but few of us would choose 1…

In none of the hard Sci-Fi I read as a child did they say "I needn't worry for light, as I had my portable cellphone"

Will you have AR displays that hide the information an make a room otherwise appear devoid of technology? Yes...because normal people don't fetishize technology and HGTV tells me it should be hidden from sight.

Will it be a display projected on your contact lenses, a mist excreted from a rod with lasers shined upon it, or a projector with a funky short throw lens? Man, I've got no clue...but all the fiction I've seen with fantastic display technology shows: We'll will it into existence.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#52
What I find fascinating about these predictions is that a lot of them came to pass around 1970 and then fell back. For example nationalisation of utilities and railways (here in the UK), communal living (tower blocks), and so on.

Not to mention "a great liberalism of mind and the freedom to say anything"....

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#53
post #33

This is surprisingly accurate, reserved and balanced through the lens of society as well as science. I was expecting something more fanciful like flying horses or whatnot.

Yeah, I think he had a good understanding of the implications of the newer technology of his day.

You don't know what you don't know so there's nothing about computers here, but most of this article was really well done.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#54

The reality is that no such projection is plausible. Could a human being living in 1903, before the Wright Brothers have predicted a moon landing only 66 years later? Could anyone in 1990 have predicted the smartphone, let alone 1922? Only one prediction is worthy of confidence - the world of technology will increase at an exponential rate...and the world will improve. We lament progress, but few of us would choose 1…

A telco executive's astute predictions

"Just what form the future telephone will take is, of course, pure speculation. Here is my prophecy: In its final development, the telephone will be carried about by the individual, perhaps as we carry a watch today. It probably will require no dial or equivalent and I think the users will be able to see each other, if they want, as they talk. Who knows but it may actually translate from one language to another?" - Mark Sullivan, April 9, 1953

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#55
post #13

It's striking that most of his true predictions were already in place in the sixties, a mere 40 years after the article was written (and some, much earlier). When we think about the distant future we simply think about tomorrow.

I think it's very easy to dismiss the creeping surge of the future...You have computers EVERYWHERE, and with the Cloud - somewhere else...but you also have access to a significant percentage of the music recorded over the last 80 years, the ability to predict future health issues by sending some spit to someone via the mail, the internet from SPACE, and a supply chain where it's easier to make a $.62 knicknack half a world away, put it in a container on a boat and it can be requested and sent to you same day, using your cellphone....while it wirelessly sends that music to your ears using devices that remove unwanted environmental noise.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#56
post #13

It's striking that most of his true predictions were already in place in the sixties, a mere 40 years after the article was written (and some, much earlier). When we think about the distant future we simply think about tomorrow.

> It's striking that most of his true predictions were already in place in the sixties In first world countries, may be. Now more of them are true for more and more people all around the globe too.

“The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed.

The Economist, December 4, 2003”

― William Gibson

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#57
He got a lot of things right but, like everyone else, they didn't predict the internet and its consequences.

Does anyone know of a proper prediction of the internet? And I don't mean predicting handheld devices or wireless networking. Predicting the decentralized communication part that makes distance irellevant and upgrades point to point communication to group.

And its consequence that it's very easy now to find a group that shares your biases :)

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#58
post #15

>Similar reforms apply to cooking, a great deal of which will survive among old fashioned people, but a great deal more of which will probably be avoided by the use of synthetic foods. This is very interesting especially if you think "synthetic foods" not just literally but as take out, processed products and such. I know a lot of young professional people who technically never cook. Like almost never and whatever th…

> This is very interesting especially if you think "synthetic foods" not just literally but as take out, processed products and such. I know a lot of young professional people who technically never cook. Like almost never and whatever they have at home is just snacks, if you hungry > order. There are a lot people like these.

Anecdata – I'm on of these people. I live in central Stockholm, Sweden, and almost any hour of the day I'm able to either order in or go out and buy a meal. I don't even recall last time I cooked at home. Last time anyone cooked at my place was when a friend of mine who's also a chef stopped by for a visit. My kitchen is fully equipped, there's no want for tooling or space. I more or less never go grocery shopping, and when I do shop it's for whatever snacks and fruits I might want at home. Sometimes I buy bread and other things to make sandwiches, but that's maybe once every couple of months and it's the extent to which I shop for groceries.

But when I go to my summer home on a small island with no grocery store, I cook every single day. I think it's a combination of necessity (you have to buy groceries and anything else back on the mainland, and it's a trek) and the fact that usually I'm not alone in the summer house, my brother is usually there too so I have someone to cook for.

I really enjoy cooking, I can spend hours doing it and I don't even mind the tedious tasks like peeling potatoes or chopping onions and other things. I just never do it at home, for myself. Why should I, when I can just as easily order in? That way I don't have to throw out groceries that inevitably go bad because as a single person it's hard to shop just what I need, everything is in large multi packs. Even a loaf of bread will go bad before I'm able to eat it all.

It's odd, but for me it really is very location dependent. It was the same when I lived in London, I don't think I cooked at home even once during those years.

Re: What the world will be like in a hundred years (1922)

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do any of those even come close to 1822-1922 changes of aviation, global telecommumications, ubiquitous electricity, cars, Quantum Mechanics, and so on? Space exploration, nuclear propulsion and satellites are great, but their impact on people’s daily lives is far smaller than the above, imo. I think the author was largely correct.

Personal Computers (and smartphones, etc) are the largest change by far.

They are definitely the biggest change in the past century and on par with those big innovations I mentioned, so I wouldn’t want to undersell them as they’ve been a major disruptive change to most / all fields.

However, they wouldn’t exactly be incomprehensible to someone from the early 1900’s, since they already had the telegraph, telephony, and fax machines which could send pictures over a long distance came very soon after this article was written.

Whereas I think a person from the early 1800’s would genuinely struggle with understanding the modern world.

Post reply on HN