No Way to Grow Up • Hacker News Board

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#641

Post by quadrifoliate » Wed, Jan 05, 2022, 3:55 PM UTC

istjohn wrote: post #561

quadrifoliate wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Making education policy without measuring outcomes in a rigorous way is like doing science without running experiments. It's worse to present an experiment as objective without properly measuring its error bars. As I have pointed out, there are a million different factors that can influence performance on tests. Claiming that you are "measuring outcomes in a rigorous way" from these tests without putting in the tim…

I read you to be dismissing tests outright. If you merely want to stipulate that the test scores are subjected to rigorous statistical analyses that "properly measure its error bars" we are in total agreement.

> If you merely want to stipulate that the test scores are subjected to rigorous statistical analyses that "properly measure its error bars" we are in total agreement.

I am saying that the system should fail open in their absence. "Students' achievement dropped 50 points!" makes for a really potent policy cudgel. "Students' learning dropped 50 points, +/- 40" is silly and meaningless. The former should never be available, unless the +/- is explicitly mentioned.

This is similar to prescription medicines. We have a lot of prescription medicines that do great things, which no one is debating. But without a proper evaluation process, you have zero access to them. Test assessments should be similar in my opinion.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#642

Post by quadrifoliate » Wed, Jan 05, 2022, 3:59 PM UTC

onion2k wrote: post #559

quadrifoliate wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Making education policy without measuring outcomes in a rigorous way is like doing science without running experiments. It's worse to present an experiment as objective without properly measuring its error bars. As I have pointed out, there are a million different factors that can influence performance on tests. Claiming that you are "measuring outcomes in a rigorous way" from these tests without putting in the tim…

As I have pointed out, there are a million different factors that can influence performance on tests. For individuals, yes. But for the entire cohort not really - the results are being compared to previous years, so the error bars should be approximately the same. Children are, on average, the same as two, five or ten years ago, so the test outcomes should be about the same. The article suggests that all children are…

> Children are, on average, the same as two, five or ten years ago, so the test outcomes should be about the same.

The mental state of children today is not the same for those five or ten years ago, for a myriad of reasons; this should be obvious.

> The article suggests that all children are now doing worse on tests than previous years.

Yes. I am also sure they will do worse on a rubric for mental well-being. Unfortunately no one seems to have thought about measuring or improving that, since most of the standardized-test focused measures probably worsen it.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#643

Post by sanedigital » Wed, Jan 05, 2022, 4:00 PM UTC

wayoutthere wrote: post #629

sanedigital wrote: post #627

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My symptoms aren’t even that bad, I’m just exhausted all the time. There are 30-40M symptomatic cases of the flu each year in the US, with the same or worse symptoms as what you just described. There is no "new" normal, cold & flu season just got more complex.

I’ve had the flu. Covid is way worse. We’re already in the new normal; nobody is going back into the office if they don’t have to and that alone will force a realignment of American life. We were slowly headed that way before Covid anyway, the pandemic just made it happen. Companies requiring knowledge workers to be onsite are having huge levels of attrition because the employees have options. One of my clients who w…

I've had both. In 2009 my wife and I both got Swine Flu while in University. That was far and above the worst illness I've ever had. Covid was like a bad cold.

I completely agree with you on the new normal regarding in office, but that wasn't what we were talking about. We were discussing a new normal regarding seasonal infectious disease and the social and economic burden it causes. As COVID becomes endemic, there won't be anything "new" about that normal, it'll look almost identical to the burden caused by the cold and flu prior to 2020.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#644

Post by blindmute » Wed, Jan 05, 2022, 4:03 PM UTC

_jal wrote: post #54

superfrank wrote: post #18

I'm not sure I like this article. They seems to overstate what the sources they link to claim. For example the article says > Some researchers are skeptical that school closures reduce Covid cases in most instances. But when you go to the study they link, it says > Although school closures reduce the number of contacts children have, and may decrease transmission, a study of 12 million adults in the UK found no diffe…

There appears to be a weird blind-spot when discussing COVID outcomes - anything short of death appears to be discounted or ignored. So hospital issues, long COVID, etc. just don't exist, so catching it either didn't matter or you're dead. On a planet where that was true, that sort of reasoning would make sense. (As it does if you're trying to encourage other people to ignore risks.) What I don't understand is why so…

I've yet to see any convincing evidence that long covid even exists, moreso than long flu exists.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#645

Post by quadrifoliate » Wed, Jan 05, 2022, 4:04 PM UTC

ryathal wrote: post #610

quadrifoliate wrote: post #499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're a programmer (like many on this site are), I find it hard to see how you think state assessment tests can be objective or measure real learning for a student in any statistically meaningful way. They make whiteboard coding tests look extremely subjective, fair, and balanced in comparison. I know people who have had to teach 3rd graders to give standardized tests, and reality is that a lot depends on the moo…

Standardized tests work just fine to assess competency. White board interviews probably would to if they were designed and graded by assessment professionals. Those tests are designed to assess competency at a specific level, and they are a lot better at it than many give them credit for. You don't have to be in a great mood to be able to read, especially at a third grade level. These tests are far better than anyone…

> You don't have to be in a great mood to be able to read, especially at a third grade level.

Massive [citation needed]. It seems reasonably obvious that mood will affect ability of reading, especially when you can't measure it directly; you're probably doing so via some questions that ask about comprehension. Have you not seen all the conversations about adults burning out at their jobs during the pandemic? Why do you expect children to be totally unaffected?

> These tests are far better than anyone wants to admit at showing how terrible our schools are in the U.S.

The science around this is extremely flimsy, and is mostly supplemented by random strident declarations like yours. Learning is a complex topic even in adults, and influenced by many environmental factors. It's staggering to me that people (usually without an education degree) can casually claim to know a lot about how it's happening in children, who learn at a far faster rate than adults.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#646

Post by blindmute » Wed, Jan 05, 2022, 4:05 PM UTC

btown wrote: post #186

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And also the abnormally high ratio of people who die within 1 year of catching Covid from other reasons: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-survivors... 233% increase in chance of death for people less than 65... 183% increase for people 65+: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2021.77843...

The article actually says it's 233% increase in chance of death for people younger than 65, which is even scarier: > For people younger than 65 who were hospitalized with COVID-19, the risk of death in the 12 months after the infection was 233% higher than it was for people who did not have the disease, results published in the journal Frontiers in Medicine have shown. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fme…

If you get hospitalized from covid, you're already a sickly person, so this isn't surprising. More of a correlation than a cause.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#647

Post by toolz » Wed, Jan 05, 2022, 4:07 PM UTC

hhmc wrote: post #579

toolz wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US staffed beds are down 7% for the year, what makes you think it's not getting worse?

For one, I don’t live in the US

Well that really doesn't have anything to do with this conversation.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#648

Post by flerchin » Wed, Jan 05, 2022, 4:09 PM UTC

SuoDuanDao wrote: post #366

flerchin wrote: post #273

At least for us, in the early days, I understood the school closures to be about protecting the sometimes elderly staff, and the children from unknowns. Now that vaccinations are widely available to both the staff and kids, I would like to see a more rigorous adherence to the rigor of the before times. Regular bus schedules, and regular lunch times, and generally doing sports and activities, within the bounds of circ…

Nearly everyone is experiencing more baseline stress these days. I doubt a more predictable daily schedule would be all that reassuring against a backdrop of cascading supply chain disruptions and spiralling political dialogue. I'm not a parent but I like the sentiment behind the saying, 'Talk to your kids about the changing world order, before someone else does'.

> I'm not a parent

This is clear. Predictable daily schedules are quite reassuring for kids. Supply chain disruptions and politics are not even on their radar.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#649

Post by CountDrewku » Wed, Jan 05, 2022, 4:17 PM UTC

throwawaylinux wrote: post #307

CountDrewku wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Teachers and administrators want schools open. ...and therefore politicians want schools open. This is just false. The largest teacher unions in the country have been pushing school closures. This means many teachers, administrators and politicians also want school closures. Until like the last week politicians have been reluctant to even suggest schools reopen https://news.yahoo.com/fauci-teachers-unions-odds-over-…

You could be right about that, but re: your link, Fauci is not a politician, he's a bureaucrat. No doubt they are subject to politicization / political bias and pressure too, but he doesn't seem completely partisan and one sided, he "has acted as an advisor to every U.S. president since Ronald Reagan"[wikipedia], so it's hard to gauge the political response to the mood of constituents based on what he's saying, in my…

Biden has been parroting the same stance since he's been in office. They're not about to go against a large part of their voting base. When the teacher's unions want something they usually bow to it.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#650

Post by CountDrewku » Wed, Jan 05, 2022, 4:20 PM UTC

galaxyLogic wrote: post #269

CountDrewku wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can say the opposite about the other side as well... Anything short of eradication (which is impossible) means nonstop lockdowns, masking, vaccine mandates and making the unvaccinated pariahs. What I don't understand is why you would shut down schools and enforce silly unhelpful mask mandates on them when the science shows children do not spread the disease in any meaningful way and are not badly affected by it.…

You make several strong claims in your post: 1. Shutting down schools does not help prevent the spread 2. Mask-mandates do not help (prevent the spread) 3. Science shows children don't spread the disease in any meaningful way 4. Children are not badly affected 5. Mask-mandates are "silly" Can you give us links to data that shows each of your five (5) claims to be correct?

https://adc.bmj.com/content/105/7/618

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200710100934.h...

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32430964/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32914746/

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.26394

Yep and that's just a handful of easily found studies showing that children aren't in very low risk of COVID infecting them and/or causing any serious ailment. Therefore, the rest of your points are moot.