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No Way to Grow Up

nytimes.com

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Re: No Way to Grow Up

#251

Post by quadrifoliate »

datavirtue wrote: post #138
animal_spirits wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our taxation system is already set up for these kinds of transactions, and we definitely should be putting more money into teacher salaries and education.

No we should not. They all get a pension. Do you know how much pensions cost? There are people on waiting lists to fill teacher positions. The benefits make up for the low bank deposit.

> They all get a pension. Do you know how much pensions cost? There are people on waiting lists to fill teacher positions.

This might be the case in some specific jurisdiction you are in, but is patently not true across the United States. The state I'm in stopped pensions for teachers in the nineties.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#252

Post by nradov »

XorNot wrote: post #232
animal_spirits wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the article does a good job at looking at this as a trade-off. No where in the article do they state outright that there is no change to transmission. The main point is to ask the question "Is avoiding the damage to those that are older worth the damage to those that are younger?"

The question only ever asked by people in no danger (or who believe they're in no danger) of the consequences of what they propose.

There will always be some level of danger. Insisting on eliminating danger is irrational.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#253

Post by crawfordcomeaux »

ianbicking wrote: post #239

I'd love to see an emotionless cost-benefit analysis of different approaches to handling schools in the pandemic. I suspect the cost of closed schools far exceeds what we intuitively think, since it's not just the educational loss now, it's the cost of future mitigations due to the problems we're causing, and a large cost of lost productivity by parents. How many person-hours of lost productivity is there for each da…

First, let's learn to account for emotional, mental, spiritual costs. Then we can talk about the productivity hit.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#254

Post by Const-me »

btown wrote: post #186
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And also the abnormally high ratio of people who die within 1 year of catching Covid from other reasons: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-survivors... 233% increase in chance of death for people less than 65... 183% increase for people 65+: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2021.77843...

The article actually says it's 233% increase in chance of death for people younger than 65, which is even scarier: > For people younger than 65 who were hospitalized with COVID-19, the risk of death in the 12 months after the infection was 233% higher than it was for people who did not have the disease, results published in the journal Frontiers in Medicine have shown. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fme…

The researchers found a strong positive correlation between severe COVID-19 (defined as a COVID-19 hospitalization) and chance of death for any reason.

There're obvious reasons why people of all ages with preexisting health issues are likely to get severe COVID-19 as opposed to asymptomatic, mild or moderate one, and the same people are also more likely to die from other health-related reasons. This would explain the correlation they found.

However, in the "Discussion" section they wrote this:

Based on the evidence that contracting severe COVID-19 infection increases the risk of death after surviving the episode, it is clear that prevention of significant COVID-19 infection is the most effective way to decrease the risk of death following COVID-19

Does anyone understands why exactly is it clear?

Note the graph in the same article shows people with mild COVID-19 have lower risk of death compared to people with no COVID at all.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#255

Post by colinmhayes »

yupper32 wrote: post #99

Honest question: At what point do we give up? I'm in the Bay Area and it'll be coming up on 2 years soon of what basically amounts to a social shut down. -- Many social groups are just not getting together anymore, including most of mine. -- Concerts, sporting events, parties of most sizes, crowded bars/clubs just seem off the table at this point. -- Masks for the majority of it, which makes gym going and working out…

> Concerts, sporting events, parties of most sizes, crowded bars/clubs

Here in Chicago all of these things have been on the table since early summer, albeit masked. Omicron has shut things down again to an extent, but I doubt that'll last through January.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#256

Post by jessaustin »

bpodgursky wrote: post #47
stathibus wrote: post #10

In 30 years these kids will be running the world. I can only hope they'll understand why this happened to them, so the next generation will be a bit wiser.

Unfortunately, through advances in medical technology, the 70 year olds who run the world right now will probably still be running the world in 30 years.

Wow that's dystopian.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#257

Post by rdtwo »

ajmurmann wrote: post #97
wayoutthere wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an attempt at manufacturing consensus by making it seem like these arguments are coming “from the adults in the room” because it’s in the NYTimes. They’re so good at gaslighting their readers (and I say this coming from the left of the NYT, not the right). You’ll start to see liberal politicians using these same talking points in the coming weeks, guaranteed.

"You’ll start to see liberal politicians using these same talking points in the coming weeks, guaranteed." This article's position seems to be more in line with the Republican's general stance on the pandemic. So isn't it a good thing of the left can revise its position?

This is trying to manufacture Consensus on giving up and do natural immunity from the left

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#258

Post by gotstad »

crawfordcomeaux wrote: post #253
ianbicking wrote: post #239

I'd love to see an emotionless cost-benefit analysis of different approaches to handling schools in the pandemic. I suspect the cost of closed schools far exceeds what we intuitively think, since it's not just the educational loss now, it's the cost of future mitigations due to the problems we're causing, and a large cost of lost productivity by parents. How many person-hours of lost productivity is there for each da…

First, let's learn to account for emotional, mental, spiritual costs. Then we can talk about the productivity hit.

While those are important costs to consider, there is no way people will agree on how to measure such things in comparable terms.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#259

Post by ArnoVW »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #196
btown wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article actually says it's 233% increase in chance of death for people younger than 65, which is even scarier: > For people younger than 65 who were hospitalized with COVID-19, the risk of death in the 12 months after the infection was 233% higher than it was for people who did not have the disease, results published in the journal Frontiers in Medicine have shown. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fme…

Thanks for the correction! My mistake - but I would argue it's WAY less scary. Chance of death is already high when you're 80 (4%). An extra 133% is 5.32% chance of death. If you're 16 is 0.02%. An extra 133% is a rounding error.

Extra 133%, not extra 33%.

So from 4% to 9.33%, not 5.33%

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#260

Post by taneq »

chmod600 wrote: post #227

It seems like this is a case where science doesn't tell the whole story. The pro-science stance is very numbers-focused, but ignores hard-to-quantify things that really do matter. People see their kids suffering. Masks do have a cost. Millions of years of evolution say that facial expressions are really important, especially for adolescents. Fear has a cost. And quality of life matters. Everyone knows this. Even the…

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