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No Way to Grow Up

nytimes.com

191–200 of 714 posts

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our taxation system is already set up for these kinds of transactions, and we definitely should be putting more money into teacher salaries and education.

No we should not. They all get a pension. Do you know how much pensions cost? There are people on waiting lists to fill teacher positions. The benefits make up for the low bank deposit.

People don't get this. In Illinois, multiple thousands of my annual property tax dollars directly fund the pensions of local teachers. And then I have to self-fund my 401K to have a chance at retirement - one that could fail to grow or evaporate in the market at exactly the wrong time. Theirs is guaranteed. They will get their salary for life.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#192
post #101

I'm not sure I like this article. They seems to overstate what the sources they link to claim. For example the article says > Some researchers are skeptical that school closures reduce Covid cases in most instances. But when you go to the study they link, it says > Although school closures reduce the number of contacts children have, and may decrease transmission, a study of 12 million adults in the UK found no diffe…

Isn’t “may decrease transmission” the operative part of the citation?

No. They're saying it "may decrease transmission" because there isn't evidence one way or another. They study they linked to didn't test that. Later in the first study, they even say "The role of children in community transmission is not clear".

The study that they're citing (https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n628.short) tests whether living with children increases chances of death from COVID (it doesn't).

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#193

I wonder how all those kids with long covid will view decisions to physically disable them potentially for life so the state could force their parents to work. I wonder how kids mental health copes with the idea that adults will intentionally expose them and others to a deadly disease with no mitigations to make money.

Please share some stats on long covid in kids. e.g. effects that persist more than a few months out that can be reasonably expected to be permanent Surely they exist if you're making a comment like this, right?

The research in kids is much sparser than in adults, but when I looked into this, I saw far smaller, more biased sample sizes than in adults, but very similar PET scans showing hypometabolism in kids brains as has been shown in adults. This first article popped up too discussing long covid in kids when I googled it just now.

"Children with long covid" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC7927578/

"Similar patterns of [18F]-FDG brain PET hypometabolism in paediatric and adult patients with long COVID: a paediatric case series" https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00259-021-05528...

I think you all should learn to respect the enemy rather than dismissing it because it makes you feel bad.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#194
post #156
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There appears to be a weird blind-spot when discussing COVID outcomes - anything short of death appears to be discounted or ignored. So hospital issues, long COVID, etc. just don't exist, so catching it either didn't matter or you're dead. On a planet where that was true, that sort of reasoning would make sense. (As it does if you're trying to encourage other people to ignore risks.) What I don't understand is why so…

The quora answer [1] by Franklin Veaux to question "How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?" explains nicely that it is not binary live/die at all. Mind though that this was written in the beginning of the pandemic when we didn't have the same information as now, so numbers may be imprecise, but the explanation still stands. https://www.quora.com/How-can-a-disease-with-1-mortality-shu...

[deleted]

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#195
post #39

So, is Covid the shock that leads to the education system being reinvented for the better or do school boards just keep bumbling along like before? Do zero-tolerance policies really work? Why are students falling behind in mathematics compared to the rest of the world? Does overloading of take home work produce better test scores, or does it just consume free time and stress out kids? Are teachers ever going to be pa…

It is obvious what will happen. The education system will crumble, inequality will grow, and to make up for having a poorly educated work force we will adopt more automation or AI-assisted tasks with very structured workflows to reduce cognitive requirements. Only elites will be able to afford giving their children strong educations and social experiences, presumably with other elite children. This will allow some ch…

You have described, accurately if glibly, the situation in the West prior to the Industrial Revolution and globalization, which have brought world-historical growth in economic, educational, and spiritual quality-of-life for non-elites.

Over the past ~150 years, our society has been remade; higher education is hardly the esoteric province of the aristocracy and clergy it was ~700 years ago in Europe, and as you imagine it will "obviously" soon again be.

There's no doubt the elite retain advantages of birth. Perfect meritocracy seems at odds with humans' intuitive creation of entrenched hierarchy and autonomic drive to empower and extend one's specific genetic legacy. But even when beset by imperfection, corruption, hypocrisy, etc, a Western non-elite human's life is not likely to turn out "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short," as is it would have in almost any other age. A peasant in Lancashire c. 1350 could reasonably bet many of his children would die, and those that did not would live almost entirely the same life as his own. A working-class American can make the opposite bets just as reasonably.

All this to say: I'm no Whig historian, but it is impossible to deny tangible and massive improvements in the average human's access to education and general quality of life over the past several generations. It is therefore absurd to make "obvious" predictions such as you have, contrary to a pervasive, macro trend, without providing some insightful analysis. (William Gibson's Cassandra cries should not be used as primary evidence...)

We rich, lucky ones, likely as not great-grandchildren of semi-literate factory peons, seem, generally, to exist in a cynical milieu which thoughtlessly assumes inevitable dystopia (an anti-Whig history!). But recent negative trends in, for instance, the Gini co-efficient, are minuscule vibrations within a relentlessly positive curve [https://ourworldindata.org/income-inequality].

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#196
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And also the abnormally high ratio of people who die within 1 year of catching Covid from other reasons: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-survivors... 233% increase in chance of death for people less than 65... 183% increase for people 65+: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2021.77843...

The article actually says it's 233% increase in chance of death for people younger than 65, which is even scarier: > For people younger than 65 who were hospitalized with COVID-19, the risk of death in the 12 months after the infection was 233% higher than it was for people who did not have the disease, results published in the journal Frontiers in Medicine have shown. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fme…

Thanks for the correction!

My mistake - but I would argue it's WAY less scary.

Chance of death is already high when you're 80 (4%). An extra 133% is 5.32% chance of death.

If you're 16 is 0.02%. An extra 133% is a rounding error.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#197

I am very thankful that my youngest graduated high school in 2020. The last couple of months were screwed up, but there wasn't much real education lost by then; most seniors pretty much check out after Spring Break anyway. I really feel for the kids who are younger. The effects of this are going to be with us for decades.

> The effects of this are going to be with us for decades. Unlikely. The evidence from kids who get sick enough to miss a lot of school is that at worst it takes three years for them to be indistinguishable from those with uninterrupted school attendance. Even unstructured homeschoolers, who have little to no explicit instruction of any kind, are only on average a grade level behind average children[1]. The last hist…

> The evidence from kids who get sick enough to miss a lot of school is that at worst it takes three years for them to be indistinguishable from those with uninterrupted school attendance.

Is this really true if the entire class missed a few years? It is very different having one kid who missed a lot and then later interacts with kids who all didn't miss a lot, and a class where every kid is behind a couple of years.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#198

[RANT] At this point I've lost faith in my generation, my parents' generation, and everything in between and outside of that. I don't care what your degree says or does not say. I don't care about your credentials. I don't care about your politics. Everyone has been wrong. MY YOUNG CHILDREN SHOULD NOT HAVE TO CONTINUE WEARING MASKS AT SCHOOL WHEN THEY ARE VACCINATED. That is no way to grow up indeed.

> At this point I've lost faith in my generation, my parents' generation, and everything in between and outside of that. I don't care what your degree says or does not say. I don't care about your credentials. I don't care about your politics. Everyone has been wrong. MY YOUNG CHILDREN SHOULD NOT HAVE TO CONTINUE WEARING MASKS AT SCHOOL WHEN THEY ARE VACCINATED. That is no way to grow up indeed.

And I don't want my kid anywhere near yours then. Mask are not to protect them. Mask are to protect others. Just because someone is vaccinated does not mean they can't spread viruses.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#199

Honest question: At what point do we give up? I'm in the Bay Area and it'll be coming up on 2 years soon of what basically amounts to a social shut down. -- Many social groups are just not getting together anymore, including most of mine. -- Concerts, sporting events, parties of most sizes, crowded bars/clubs just seem off the table at this point. -- Masks for the majority of it, which makes gym going and working out…

The answer is simple: it will stop when people decide it is over. Only non-compliance on massive scale will solve this. Science clearly said that Covid will be with us forever. We know that vaccines didn't stop the spread in even a single country. There is nothing else to wait. Take back your freedom now.

Re: No Way to Grow Up

#200
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern society is just the result of countless generations of the human tendency to quantify. We just have so many things quantified now that our problems tend to be more "using the wrong quantifications" rather than "not having the right quantifications."

> Modern society is just the result of countless generations of the human tendency to quantify. Is it? I see no evidence to justify this statement at all. Care to show some? The vast majority of how society is organized seems to eschew quantification in favor of descriptive qualification. Most laws, and governance, for example are formed that way. The use of metrics in governance has been dramatically increasing as o…

> The vast majority of how society is organized seems to eschew quantification in favor of descriptive qualification.

> The use of metrics in governance has been dramatically increasing as our methods of quantification have developed, but that is definitely a modern development.

These two statements seem slightly contradictory. If quantified metrics in governance has increased as our ability to quantify things has increased, then it would seem that laws did not favor descriptive qualification, they merely relied on it due to lack of ability to quantify.

Or put another way: The only times we don't quantify things is when we cannot.

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