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A First Lesson in Econometrics (1970) [pdf]

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Re: A First Lesson in Econometrics (1970) [pdf]

#11
Econometrics is one of the most discredited branches of academics that exists. These were the people who were waving their models around in the early 1990s, trying to tell people that NAFTA would have no effect on manufacturing jobs in the United States. They also promoted elimination of Glass-Steagall and the deregulation of the housing market, resulting in the subprime fraud-based economic disaster of 2008.

There's a reason the neoclassical economists are hidden away in business schools, not in the actual science departments - it's because they'd have to endure the ridicule of anyone with basic training in science and math. When your models predict the opposite of what actually occurs, time and time again, well, you're supposed to recognize that there are fundamental flaws in them and go back to basics.

Imagine if, in the late 1970s, all the climate researchers had predicted several decades of global cooling thanks to human activity, and had turned out to be entirely wrong, yet made no effort to re-examine their basic assumptions about how the world works. That's what neoclassical economists are doing with their econometric model nonsense.

Re: A First Lesson in Econometrics (1970) [pdf]

#13

Econometrics is one of the most discredited branches of academics that exists. These were the people who were waving their models around in the early 1990s, trying to tell people that NAFTA would have no effect on manufacturing jobs in the United States. They also promoted elimination of Glass-Steagall and the deregulation of the housing market, resulting in the subprime fraud-based economic disaster of 2008. There's…

Not sure why you're downvoted.

Re: A First Lesson in Econometrics (1970) [pdf]

#14

Econometrics is one of the most discredited branches of academics that exists. These were the people who were waving their models around in the early 1990s, trying to tell people that NAFTA would have no effect on manufacturing jobs in the United States. They also promoted elimination of Glass-Steagall and the deregulation of the housing market, resulting in the subprime fraud-based economic disaster of 2008. There's…

This is silly. Econometrics is the basis for much of what we now call data science, and good causal inference. It has bugger all to do with nafta.

Re: A First Lesson in Econometrics (1970) [pdf]

#15

Econometrics is one of the most discredited branches of academics that exists. These were the people who were waving their models around in the early 1990s, trying to tell people that NAFTA would have no effect on manufacturing jobs in the United States. They also promoted elimination of Glass-Steagall and the deregulation of the housing market, resulting in the subprime fraud-based economic disaster of 2008. There's…

Not sure why you're downvoted.

Likely because it's a confused comment not having any relationship to the posted article, and it demonstrates lack of even a basic understanding of what econometrics is. (Source: I teach econometrics classes in a college of arts and sciences, which I share with math, statistics, physics, chemistry, and biology departments.)

Re: A First Lesson in Econometrics (1970) [pdf]

#16

Econometrics is one of the most discredited branches of academics that exists. These were the people who were waving their models around in the early 1990s, trying to tell people that NAFTA would have no effect on manufacturing jobs in the United States. They also promoted elimination of Glass-Steagall and the deregulation of the housing market, resulting in the subprime fraud-based economic disaster of 2008. There's…

This comment is totally uninformed and completely wrong.

Econometrics is the study of making inferences about economic models from data. Making inferences from data is fundamental to everything economists have done for a long time. Econometricians are essentially applied statisticians. Indeed, I can think of many econometricians I personally know who have joint appointments in university statistics departments. Your claim that they are "hidden in business schools" is completely incorrect.

Econometricians are unlikely to have made predictions about NAFTA. You provide no source for your claim that they did. Nor are they likely to have advocated against Glass-Steagall. You provide no evidence for this claim either.

If you think econometricians have no training in science or math, you are also totally and completely wrong. (Again: do you think so many econometricians would have joint appointments _in statistics departments_ if that were true?)

I would also invite you to visit any seminar in a prominent university economics department in the United States, not just the econometrics seminar. Outside of pure game theory, every seminar series in every department is thoroughly empirical: what is the data, how are the parameters in the model identified, etc.

Or go talk to the economists who work at any of the large tech firms! Facebook, Google, and Amazon all have economics groups. Amazon's is to my knowledge the largest. They hire many econometricians every year and have consulting relationships with many of the leading academic econometricians. Would they put so much money into "one of the most discredited branches of academics that exists"? No, they would not.

You don't have the slightest idea what you are talking about.

Re: A First Lesson in Econometrics (1970) [pdf]

#17

Econometrics is one of the most discredited branches of academics that exists. These were the people who were waving their models around in the early 1990s, trying to tell people that NAFTA would have no effect on manufacturing jobs in the United States. They also promoted elimination of Glass-Steagall and the deregulation of the housing market, resulting in the subprime fraud-based economic disaster of 2008. There's…

I think you’re mainly focusing on macro and it’s not completely unwarranted. That said, micro stuff is fascinating to say the least, and very pertinent to data science. In fact, much of “data science” projects until 2012-13ish were handled by economists.

Re: A First Lesson in Econometrics (1970) [pdf]

#18

This was made me laugh. So many times I read ‘it should then be obvious that…’ What the?! No it isn’t. Text book authors must hate students.

My monetary economics professor in grad school was teaching a paper and told us that when the authors claim it's obvious, that means it's not obvious. So he wrote out the derivation over the weekend and gave us a four-page, single-spaced handout with all the equations behind that single "obvious" result.

Re: A First Lesson in Econometrics (1970) [pdf]

#20

This was made me laugh. So many times I read ‘it should then be obvious that…’ What the?! No it isn’t. Text book authors must hate students.

My monetary economics professor in grad school was teaching a paper and told us that when the authors claim it's obvious, that means it's not obvious. So he wrote out the derivation over the weekend and gave us a four-page, single-spaced handout with all the equations behind that single "obvious" result.

This result is trivial so the derivation is left as an exercise.
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