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Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

nytimes.com

61–70 of 302 posts

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#61
post #56
post #36

Technological progress should cause increasing economic inequality, because the bottom end of the scale is firmly anchored at zero (someone taking a vacation), while technology gives the top end ever more powerful levers. So the interesting question is not why economic inequality is increasing, but why for a few decades in the mid twentieth century the trend was reversed. There are probably several factors at work he…

I think this comment only acknowledges the existence of white collar jobs. You used to be able to pay for a house, a car, and the kids' college education with a factory job. While the wife stayed at home. Now, that scenario is eye-popping unbelievable. You're probably at wal-mart or starbucks if you don't have some sort of specialist skill or a connection into the white collar world. I'm not endorsing a particular so…

[deleted]

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#62
post #12

The primary problem with this type of comparison is that it completely ignores economic mobility. Someone simply isn't born into a given income bracket and stays there for life. Most people's earning potential goes up over time. Speaking for myself, I think I've been in all five quintiles.

I'm not convinced. You have to look at each person's context, because your family's values will take you a long way (or hold you back). And the US seems to have lower mobility than other rich nations: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/08/research...

Every time this study or one like it is trotted out, it drives me nuts. What a society should be looking for is freedom of mobility, not arbitrary mobility.

According to an article on NPR that was linked but then deleted here a minute ago, 80% of Americans think that one can still pull oneself up by their bootstraps. In the article, the subtext was that this mobility study proved that Americans were morons and don't realize how stuck they are.

What hogwash. If we think about what Americans and immigrants are actually seeing that makes them feel so hopeful, it's the opportunity of mobility through one's own efforts.

What opportunity of mobility does not imply is the greatest statistical father-son mobility. That would only be the case if each person born were randomly allotted IQ or EQ or whatever your favored intellectual attribute is for being more likely to succeed. But that's not how genetics work.

Not only that, but each person would have to be born into families with precisely the same quality of upbringing. But neither is that the case. In fact, on average, successful parents have successful habits that they pass on to their children.

The upshot is, the method of this study is absurd. The correlation between your dad's income and your income does not represent freedom of mobility, it's just a lot easier to measure.

One can easily imagine societies arranged with more arbitrary success paths that lead to greater father-son mobility than a meritocratic society organized by families of natural born children.

No money needs to be involved for the preceding to be case.

Now, I actually favor an even greater level of meritocracy. I would be interested in something like a 90% death tax, to be put in a pool and distributed proportionally to children upon a certain birthday. I can see all sorts of problems with the naive version of that idea, but something in that spirit would be fantastic. Let's get rid of family money dynasties.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#63
post #43
post #33

Every time I see this kind of chart, I always wonder why the aggregate income distribution of a population is a metric that anyone ought to be concerned about. What does one person's income have to do with anyone else's - why would you aggregate everyone's separate incomes into a single figure in the first place? And if someone's particular income is insufficient to meet their needs, how do the aggregate population d…

>What does one person's income have to do with anyone else If I make $10/yr I could be the richest man on earth or the poorest. It kind of depends on what everybody else makes too.

Right, but this sort of begs the question: why does it matter whether you're the richest or poorest? Isn't the relevant question the extent to which that $10 worth of wealth satisfies your own needs, irrespective what anyone else may or may not have?

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#64
post #36

Technological progress should cause increasing economic inequality, because the bottom end of the scale is firmly anchored at zero (someone taking a vacation), while technology gives the top end ever more powerful levers. So the interesting question is not why economic inequality is increasing, but why for a few decades in the mid twentieth century the trend was reversed. There are probably several factors at work he…

These data relate to "production and non-supervisory workers" (82% of today's private sector work force). The people you refer to would seem to comprise the other 18%.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#65
post #49
post #36

Technological progress should cause increasing economic inequality, because the bottom end of the scale is firmly anchored at zero (someone taking a vacation), while technology gives the top end ever more powerful levers. So the interesting question is not why economic inequality is increasing, but why for a few decades in the mid twentieth century the trend was reversed. There are probably several factors at work he…

Man, what fantasy world do you live in? Large corporations decrease inequality? [citation needed] Ambitious people started to lose interest? I can't even dignify that with a [citation needed]. Ambitious people have what to do with anything on a national scale? Ambitious people somehow caused, or were party to, the decimation of the middle class, which somehow never once gets mentioned by the actual economists and pol…

Since you're unaware he's also "pg" who created ycombinator.

Edit: I'd like to point out that this wasn't some kind of appeal to authority to support pg's arguments, so kindly explain the down mods.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#66
post #61
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this comment only acknowledges the existence of white collar jobs. You used to be able to pay for a house, a car, and the kids' college education with a factory job. While the wife stayed at home. Now, that scenario is eye-popping unbelievable. You're probably at wal-mart or starbucks if you don't have some sort of specialist skill or a connection into the white collar world. I'm not endorsing a particular so…

[deleted]

[deleted]

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#67
post #61
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this comment only acknowledges the existence of white collar jobs. You used to be able to pay for a house, a car, and the kids' college education with a factory job. While the wife stayed at home. Now, that scenario is eye-popping unbelievable. You're probably at wal-mart or starbucks if you don't have some sort of specialist skill or a connection into the white collar world. I'm not endorsing a particular so…

[deleted]

[deleted]

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#68

This analysis also ignores actual purchasing power (non-core inflation). Wages may have stagnated, but purchasing power for non-core goods has soared. Free trade is a powerful cause of both wage stagnation and purchasing power. Sure, eliminate free trade and the working class will see wages go up; but they'll spend those wages on $4000 plasma TVs and $50,000 economy cars.

Wages may have stagnated, but purchasing power for non-core goods has soared.

And why is this all that relevant, especially considering that purchasing power for core goods (which you don't mention) has probably declined?

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#69
Funny, I was just in a discussion with some folks on this very issue, so enjoy the citation bomb. In short: total compensation isn't outstripping productivity by a substantial degree.

First, start with "The relative stickiness of wages and prices" by David E. Spencer. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5814/is_n1_v36/ai_n2... It provides important background to the discussion of whether wages or prices 'stick' more, and provides an overview of the debate through '98.

Next, we turn to Martin Feldstein's paper, "Did wages reflect growth in productivity", 2008. http://www.nber.org/papers/w13953 He highlights two common errors with studies that find wages rose substantially slower than productivity. First, he explains that such studies focus on wages rather than total compensation. Without comparing productivity to total compensation, such studies are dangerously flawed. Second, such studies tend to poorly select the deflator when comparing productivity & compensation. Basically, the price index that's used to determine compensation is different than the price index used to calculate productivity.

For an even more recent discussion of the same problem, but within the context of Russia's economy, read "Productivity and Cost of Labor: How Statistical Illusions Are Born" by R. Kapeliushnikov, May '10 http://mesharpe.metapress.com/index/BW00W218X2143504.pdf. He explains:

  It seems that many of them are unaware of the difference between the 
  producer real wage and the consumer real wage. The former is estimated
  by deflating the nominal wage using the producer price index (PPI) or 
  the GDP deflator; the latter, by deflating the nominal wage using the
  consumer price index (CPI). One reflects the change in the price of 
  labor from the perspective of firms; the other, the change in the pur-
  chasing power of wages from the perspective of employees. Therefore, if 
  we want to answer the question of how expensive or cheap labor is for 
  firms, we should use the producer real wage, not the consumer real wage.
Hopefully this helps in evaluating the claims made by the EPI (the source of the data used by the NYT). I'm not familiar with any direct responses to their latest data, but Feldstein reaches a different conclusion over much of the same time period: While there's some lag in total compensation, it's not dramatically different than the rise in productivity.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#70
post #56
post #36

Technological progress should cause increasing economic inequality, because the bottom end of the scale is firmly anchored at zero (someone taking a vacation), while technology gives the top end ever more powerful levers. So the interesting question is not why economic inequality is increasing, but why for a few decades in the mid twentieth century the trend was reversed. There are probably several factors at work he…

I think this comment only acknowledges the existence of white collar jobs. You used to be able to pay for a house, a car, and the kids' college education with a factory job. While the wife stayed at home. Now, that scenario is eye-popping unbelievable. You're probably at wal-mart or starbucks if you don't have some sort of specialist skill or a connection into the white collar world. I'm not endorsing a particular so…

The disappearance of blue collar jobs is most probably due to the fact that it is cheaper to put them in faraway countries where minimum wages either don't exist, or are ridiculously lower.
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