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Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

nytimes.com

11–20 of 302 posts

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#11
post #8

What happened in the late 70s?

Reagan (1981-1989).

To be fair, Carter's reign wasn't exactly an economic wonder-time, and I don't think Reagan was influencing the economy that much as governor.

I do think there's a political dimension to the change, but laying the blame at Reagan's feet exclusively seems like simple political point-scoring.

Edit: it's funny seeing this comment getting down-modded. I think I'm significantly more liberal than most people here, but it looks like people are upset that I called out empty partisanship? I fail to see anything particularly inflammatory about what I wrote.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#12

The primary problem with this type of comparison is that it completely ignores economic mobility. Someone simply isn't born into a given income bracket and stays there for life. Most people's earning potential goes up over time. Speaking for myself, I think I've been in all five quintiles.

I'm not convinced. You have to look at each person's context, because your family's values will take you a long way (or hold you back).

And the US seems to have lower mobility than other rich nations: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/08/research...

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#13

So the working class has been taken to the slaughterhouse? My billion dollar question: What happened at the end of the 70's / beginning of the 80's?

in short ronald reagan tax breaks and labor market deregulation: paul krugman has essentially a whole book on why this occurred (http://www.amazon.com/Conscience-Liberal-Paul-Krugman/dp/039...) It is an amazing book that really changed my view of labor unions. i would recommend it to anyone. heres an example from his blog: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/30/more-about-the-r...

he has a lot of stuff on his blog discussing tax policies and their effect on things like income growth.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#14

The primary problem with this type of comparison is that it completely ignores economic mobility. Someone simply isn't born into a given income bracket and stays there for life. Most people's earning potential goes up over time. Speaking for myself, I think I've been in all five quintiles.

Your observation is a known flaw with this line of thinking. In fact, it's such a powerful rejoinder I'm really surprised the NYT didn't address it.

If I remember correctly, movement among quintiles in the US is such that the average person moves through many. Yes, there are the permanently wealthy, and the permanently poor, but they are the exceptions rather than the rule. So when people say "the rich get richer" what they really mean is that the income segment defined by that qunintile, over all, got richer. Individual people, however, move around a lot, as anybody who has participated in the economy in the last couple of decades can attest.

I know I'm not sourcing my statement. Apologies. I'm simply relying on several rebuttals to this type of graph I've read over the years. Hopefully somebody else will be able to provide some more substance and move the discussion along.

EDIT: Random Google link: http://www.urban.org/publications/306775.html

These studies of relative mobility have produced remarkably consistent results, with regard to both the degree of mobility and the extent of changes in mobility over time.[5] Mobility in the United States is substantial according to this evidence. Large proportions of the population move into a new income quintile, with estimates ranging from about 25 to 40 percent in a single year. As one would expect, the mobility rate is even higher over longer periods—about 45 percent over a 5-year period and about 60 percent over both 9-year and 17-year periods.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#15

So the working class has been taken to the slaughterhouse? My billion dollar question: What happened at the end of the 70's / beginning of the 80's?

The easy conjecture is to point to a combination of trickle down economic policies and the rise of cheap digital replacements, but I don't have a good analysis to back this up.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#16

The primary problem with this type of comparison is that it completely ignores economic mobility. Someone simply isn't born into a given income bracket and stays there for life. Most people's earning potential goes up over time. Speaking for myself, I think I've been in all five quintiles.

The other issue is the that level of consumption of everyone in every household income quintile in the United States has steadily been going up (in a way not fully reflected in the consumer price index or other gauges of consumer behavior), so almost everyone has more stuff, more space, and more comfort and health than people in the "same" income quintile did in my childhood. There may indeed be some structural, societal problems caused by uneven income distribution (what I have liked about the United States and Taiwan, the two countries I have lived in the longest, is that they have tended to have better Gini coefficients

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/indicators/161.html

than some other countries around the world), but there will ALWAYS be some people who make more money than some other people living in the same country, and the main issue is to help each country and all the people living in each country gain prosperity over time, which has been the general worldwide trend.

http://www.theworldeconomy.org/

http://www.economist.com/node/18679001

To reply to a question in another comment below:

So the working class has been taken to the slaughterhouse?

No. Americans of all income levels still enjoy unparalleled prosperity compared to most people around the world, and the high rates of voluntary immigration into the United States even from countries that are themselves prosperous show that something about the overall mix of living conditions here isn't "slaughtering" people but rather meeting many people's aspirations on balance, in some way that makes moving far away from home an appealing idea.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#17

So the working class has been taken to the slaughterhouse? My billion dollar question: What happened at the end of the 70's / beginning of the 80's?

End of the postwar boom? Following WWII the US dollar became the world's reserve currency, this created a situation of constant demand for USD. The raised the value of the US dollar and made resources cheap for the US. (It's also allowed us to abuse the currency quite a bit. This will not last.)

Demographic changes which had been happening for years continued: in 1945 16% of the total labor force worked in agriculture, by 1970 only 4% did (it's In the 70s and 80s huge amounts of industry moved out of the country, first to Mexico and then to Asia, seeking cheaper labor. The rest of the world starting catching up with us, they were moving from agriculture to industry too. This made the more expensive labor of the US less competitive. The US economy shifted to something we couldn't use Chinese labor for: building houses(and weapons) for each other.

The postwar period was really an exceptional time. Lots of things happened really. I don't think you can really attribute the changes that came at the of the 70s to a single event or policy.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#18
This analysis also ignores actual purchasing power (non-core inflation). Wages may have stagnated, but purchasing power for non-core goods has soared.

Free trade is a powerful cause of both wage stagnation and purchasing power. Sure, eliminate free trade and the working class will see wages go up; but they'll spend those wages on $4000 plasma TVs and $50,000 economy cars.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#19
post #7
post #2

Is anyone able to explain this chart for me? When they say that the 'Top Fifth' are all of the people in the labor force making over USD112541, does that mean that 20% of American workers make more than that? That's pretty astounding to me, if it is indeed the case. At a labor force size of about 154 million people, that means that over 30 million people are making over USD112541. I know that a good number of people…

These are household income quantiles, not personal income quantiles. It's not stated on the chart, but that lines up better with: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_...

Yes -- many families have shifted from single to dual-earner in order to maintain the same standard of living, so the household income charts really understate the decline in individual wages over this period.

Re: Share of Income Gains by Quintile - Great Depression til Now

#20

The primary problem with this type of comparison is that it completely ignores economic mobility. Someone simply isn't born into a given income bracket and stays there for life. Most people's earning potential goes up over time. Speaking for myself, I think I've been in all five quintiles.

You are introducing an additional variable that doesn't make any sense to include. Even if mobility is greater now than it was (something of which I am skeptical), the fact remains that the top quintile is still only ever 20% of the population. If one new person moves into the top quintile, that means someone else has moved out.

"Most people's earning potential goes up over time." This is generally true, but it goes up like compound interest. If you start high, it tends to get massively high by the time you retire. If you start in the middle range, the results are much less impressive. If you stay poor for very long after being done with school, your gains tend to be miniscule.

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