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Lab Leak 2.0?

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Re: Lab Leak 2.0?

#161

Post by chana_masala »

yyx wrote: post #152
chana_masala wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might find the work of David Gelernter (computer scientist) interesting. He's not a creationist, but he has abandoned the theory of evolution. > Suppose, then, that every bacterium that has ever lived contributes one mutation before its demise to the history of life. This is a generous assumption; most bacteria pass on their genetic information unchanged, unmutated. Mutations are the exception. In any case, there…

It took 4 billion years to get to this point. Plenty of time.

If you read the full review, it's not at all.

Re: Lab Leak 2.0?

#162

Post by myblake »

d23 wrote: post #79

I'm open minded, but my bullshit detectors started going off around the point where it was casually implied that we all know and it is widely accepted that delta was leaked from a lab. I tried googling it but could find nothing. Then I looked at the two sources the author links: > https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4371212 > https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4382708 Neither of these have nearly enough evidence…

It was really poorly worded and confused me too until I saw the dates on the articles linked out.

Re: Lab Leak 2.0?

#163

Post by chana_masala »

yellow_postit wrote: post #153
chana_masala wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might find the work of David Gelernter (computer scientist) interesting. He's not a creationist, but he has abandoned the theory of evolution. > Suppose, then, that every bacterium that has ever lived contributes one mutation before its demise to the history of life. This is a generous assumption; most bacteria pass on their genetic information unchanged, unmutated. Mutations are the exception. In any case, there…

This is Intelligent Design dressed up in hand wavy math that builds on misrepresentation of cited studies and the fossil record. Read with a strong dose of skepticism.

Can you expand on the misrepresentation of studies and fossil record?

Re: Lab Leak 2.0?

#164

Post by medimikka »

klipt wrote: post #140
testplzignore wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is confusion on what the author meant by "leaked". The Delta variant was already spreading, yes. The author is saying - and the first link above essentially states this - that a lab worker was infected with Delta while in a lab. (Though it's not stated whether that worker was quarantined immediately, or if they could have possibly spread it to others.) So what's the point? 1,000,001 people have Delta in…

I'm guessing it's impossible to get the lab leak rate down to 0. And assuming there are currently thousands of labs studying covid, even with a low leak rate there could be some leaks. But of an already existing virus, so not so bad.

If it can happen in a lab studying an existing type, it can happen in labs studying GoF. The 1977 pandemic was a "leak" of sorts that seems to have originated from a prisoner camp known to give reduced sentence times to inmates willing to participate in medical research. The "leaking" doesn't have to happen from a vial or mouse, the avenues are numerous (Marburg "leaked" when African green monkeys, imported for non-viral research, were handled incorrectly without infectious precautions).

> But of an already existing virus, so not so bad.

Millions of drivers every day. Hundreds of accidents. Many quite light. Still, the presence of light accidents outlines the possibility of heavy ones. And that's why "phew, got lucky this time" should lead to better protection not a "not so bad, nothing happened" attitude, IMHO.

Re: Lab Leak 2.0?

#165

Post by kurthr »

medimikka wrote: post #160
ufo wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another thing that the blog post appears to be unaware of is that the absence of samples showing the step-by-step evolution towards omicron doesn't mean that this didn't happen. A lot of places in the world don't have the resources to do covid testing and genomic surveillance.

Yes, this is true. But it's also somewhat narrow. Consider this: days after the successful sequencing of Omicron, similar cases were reported in dozens of countries, having arrived there just before or just after the announcement. We know, that it's "just before," because references are being kept and re-analyzed in those cases, and none of the countries with the resources for genomic surveillance has any data on ear…

But, the point is it was growling so fast you wouldn't expect it to show up in other places until the "knee" of the exponential showed up there as well. SA being just a couple of weeks ahead is a lifetime for Omicron.

Re: Lab Leak 2.0?

#166

Post by abecedarius »

ayjchan wrote: post #37

This is Alina Chan, one of the co-authors of Viral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19. In defense of a natural origin of Omicron, this study describes the remarkable evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during convalescent plasma treatment of an immunosuppressed patient for 3-4 months; the mutations also reduced sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03291-y We know that there is a…

What do you think of this suggestion that labs in southern Africa are not the only relevant ones?

> Omicron COVID was in Italy as early as 2021-10-13 – 7 weeks before alarm from South Africa.

> per upthread, Italy also where SARS-CoV2 immune-escape gain-of-function variants bred, since 2020, in less-than-max-biosecurity labs.

https://twitter.com/gojomo/status/1473471612112441344

(IANA biologist)

Re: Lab Leak 2.0?

#167

Post by d23 »

Sevaris wrote: post #98
d23 wrote: post #79

I'm open minded, but my bullshit detectors started going off around the point where it was casually implied that we all know and it is widely accepted that delta was leaked from a lab. I tried googling it but could find nothing. Then I looked at the two sources the author links: > https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4371212 > https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4382708 Neither of these have nearly enough evidence…

I feel like you're unfairly biased. The author doesn't say what you think they do. All they're saying is that there was a lab leak of delta in 2021 as an example of lab leaks being possible. They do not argue that this was the source of delta, nor that this was the source of any other strain. Just that it happened. Sorry, the hysteria on HN is ridiculous. At least read the damn thing and try to be objective about it.

Where to even begin with this. I'm unfairly biased because I misread what he said? After re-reading, I can see that he may not have been making the point I thought he was making. I'd argue he should make a point like that more clear, but fine, it's on me that I misinterpreted.

> the hysteria on HN is ridiculous.

"Hysteria"? How do you get hysteria from my response? Because I asked for citations for what I thought was an extreme claim?

> At least read the damn thing

I did. Reading it was a pre-requisite for posting my response, which cited specific links he included.

> and try to be objective about it.

Asking for high quality sources was my attempt to be objective.

--

Edit: Actually, you know what, I take it back. If you write a sentence like this, it's on you if it's misinterpreted:

"For example, we know that the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 leaked out of a lab in Taiwan in late 2021."

Heck, I'm not even sure it wasn't the author's intent at this point.

Re: Lab Leak 2.0?

#168

Post by jazzyjackson »

beardedwizard wrote: post #11

So how are they keeping all the scientists involved in such a leak quiet? How many of these scientists are there?

Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown!

(on a serious note: the answer is, the scientists don't have to know about a leak for it to have happened, the important part is that they don't want to know. That is, China prefers if this question goes unanswered.)

Re: Lab Leak 2.0?

#169

Post by medimikka »

kurthr wrote: post #165
medimikka wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this is true. But it's also somewhat narrow. Consider this: days after the successful sequencing of Omicron, similar cases were reported in dozens of countries, having arrived there just before or just after the announcement. We know, that it's "just before," because references are being kept and re-analyzed in those cases, and none of the countries with the resources for genomic surveillance has any data on ear…

But, the point is it was growling so fast you wouldn't expect it to show up in other places until the "knee" of the exponential showed up there as well. SA being just a couple of weeks ahead is a lifetime for Omicron.

100% agreed. Again, this is a possibility, not a certainty. But I'd be loath to dismiss it, just as I am not willing to dismiss a reservoir origin. In the end, the author does make a good point: we need mandatory disclosures of GoF research and a general ban on GoF financing of labs who aren't working in full disclosure mode.

Ideally, we should not have this discussion because the GoF leak is impossible. Sadly, as secretive as this research is, as much money as we funnel into labs in China and Russia, and as reluctant as oversight authorities (such as the WHO) are to even consider leaks, the best response would be a general ban on GoF and GoF financing.

Re: Lab Leak 2.0?

#170

Post by [deleted] »

ufo wrote: post #157
chana_masala wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might find the work of David Gelernter (computer scientist) interesting. He's not a creationist, but he has abandoned the theory of evolution. > Suppose, then, that every bacterium that has ever lived contributes one mutation before its demise to the history of life. This is a generous assumption; most bacteria pass on their genetic information unchanged, unmutated. Mutations are the exception. In any case, there…

By this logic, artificial selection is also impossible and therefore pugs, tomatoes, and fancy pigeons cannot exist.

[deleted]
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