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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#261

Post by dnissley »

mrkramer wrote: post #112

I do not understand why Facebook ranks at the top when they have near monopoly in internet social networking industry. Twitter, Snapchat and TikTok combined do not have market cap even close to FB plus FB has plenty of space and time to further monetize Instagram and WhatsApp. TikTok is only real competition to FB so far. I voted for Netflix; too much competition and original content is expensive to make.

This comes down to the fact that a lot of people dislike facebook -- it says nothing about their how well they are doing as a business.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#262

Post by president »

missedthecue wrote: post #33
artemonster wrote: post #15

I have loads of friends who started to cancel their netflix subs and went back to piracy because they grew tired of searching for a way to watch something legally. Now its disney, hbo, prime, whatever. Screw all of this.

I remember when a Netflix subscription was like having Blockbuster inside your living room. Now its mostly just Netflix originals which aren't necessarily bad but maybe not worth it's own subscription every month.

Agreed but the younger generation has started to grow up on Netflix original shows/TVs.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#263

Post by RussianCow »

b9a2cab5 wrote: post #230
jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

Netflix is already on the way down. They infused all of their new shows with wokeness. Every new show feels like woke concepts are shoehorned in without regard for their impact on the story that's told. Look at the Witcher for an example. Or if you want to see this kind of shift happening over the course of a show, look at Madam Secretary. Season 1 didn't feature any of this crap and showed a strong woman main charac…

I don't totally agree that this is a problem, but to be fair, every network is doing this. Even previously silly and light-hearted TV shows like Brooklyn Nine-Nine have become noticeably heavier as they try to shed light on real-world social issues. There's nothing specific to Netflix here.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#264

Post by gigel82 »

LOL, Netflix is a FAANG? They're small potatoes in the big picture; by market cap:

(1) Apple 2.98T (2) Microsoft 2.51T (3) Alphabet (Google) 1.92T (5) Amazon 1.72T (7) Meta (Facebook) 941B ... (35) Netflix 264B

Source: https://companiesmarketcap.com/

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#268

Post by jandrewrogers »

sciolizer wrote: post #237

Depends on what you mean by "decline". But if you're talking about stock price, then the current Shiller PE Ratios are: Amazon = 238.08 Netflix = 219.32 Google = 73.95 Facebook = 68.36 Apple = 63.17 The Shiller PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is current ~30. All of these companies are overpriced, and Amazon and Netflix significantly so.

PE ratios are only meaningful for comparing companies with no revenue growth, which is well-understood by investors. For companies with insanely high revenue growth, like Amazon, a PE ratio is essentially meaningless because that growth is financed with earnings. The fact that Amazon is only trading at 3.7x revenue is a strong argument that it is underpriced given its revenue growth, not overpriced.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#269

Post by zmmmmm »

raydev wrote: post #233

I'm shocked that FB has so many votes here. FB may be getting slaughtered by the media, hated by both the left and the right, but the truth is no one is actually leaving FB. It's still the #1 place to find restaurants, buy/sell used items, neighborhood groups, etc etc etc. And if FB Proper were to ever fall behind, IG still has a lot of stamina left. I don't think it will happen any time soon, but I would like to see…

> I would like to see Apple decline. Their ideals and design and software quality from the previous decades are nowhere to be seen

I wish it was true but I feel like their quality is great where it matters. One of the biggest threats to technology is that Apple successfully captures a large slice of the computing world into a proprietary architecture with Apple extensions. Having spent a decade plus with Intel as a lingua franca we may not appreciate yet how this has kept parts of Apple's ecosystem open and the computing world interoperable.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#270

Post by k8sToGo »

schnitzelstoat wrote: post #247
raydev wrote: post #233

I'm shocked that FB has so many votes here. FB may be getting slaughtered by the media, hated by both the left and the right, but the truth is no one is actually leaving FB. It's still the #1 place to find restaurants, buy/sell used items, neighborhood groups, etc etc etc. And if FB Proper were to ever fall behind, IG still has a lot of stamina left. I don't think it will happen any time soon, but I would like to see…

The question was which is the most likely to decline, not to disappear. I don't think Facebook (or Meta) will disappear, but I do think it is the mostly likely to decline. The only one I think may disappear is Netflix - this is because Facebook benefits from the network effect which helps slow any sudden decline as all your family are still on it etc. whereas Netflix just needs a bad run of poor quality content and i…

Plus Netflix keeps increasing pricing.
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