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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#251

Post by RussianCow »

cogman10 wrote: post #185
monkeybutton wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix is facing the rise of competing streaming platforms. They're forced into creating their own content because other producers would rather release content on their own platforms and keep all the streaming revenue, rather than license it to Netflix. Streaming video on demand isn't a technical moat that is stopping anyone.

Agreed. What made netflix successful initially was their access to IP. That's going away fast as every IP producer is pushing for their own paid streaming service (which sucks, btw). With big heavyweights like Disney that own a huge percentage of content having their own services, netflix is really going to struggle being anything more than niche media providers (anime) and their own inhouse media. If they are lucky,…

> With big heavyweights like Disney that own a huge percentage of content having their own services, netflix is really going to struggle being anything more than niche media providers (anime) and their own inhouse media.

The thing is, they now pump out their own content quickly enough that they don't need anyone else's anymore, and as I understand it, that was always their goal. I imagine most of the TV-watching population (myself included) is okay with mediocre shows/movies, and Netflix has enough content that you're unlikely to completely run out of stuff to watch on their platform.

What Netflix is currently lacking is big blockbuster movies with well-known actors, but even that is changing. (See: Red Notice, Army of the Dead, Bird Box, etc.)

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#252

Post by PHGamer »

ce4 wrote: post #99
thehappypm wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A show I had one episode left of went off Netflix on 1/1. I tried to find it EVERYWHERE, I even downloaded iTunes on my PC. “Not available in your region” left right and center. I luckily found a torrent and it was legitimately the only way I could find the content beyond buying DVDs on eBay.

Perfectly fits this 10 years old comic classic from Matthew Inman: https://www.theoatmeal.com/comics/game_of_thrones

that comic is 10 years old? damn im getting old. lol. i remember that one. hilarious then , hilarious now.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#253

Post by nr2x »

kdmccormick wrote: post #43
propter_hoc wrote: post #4

Netflix's inclusion in this list instead of Microsoft may have been the best investor-relations coup in history.

+1, it's ridiculous and misleading that Netflix is still being included in this list after all this time. Netflix is a TV company. Their tech is a commodity. An important commodity, for sure, but it's not what makes them valuable. Their critical offering is their reach and programming. FAAMG (or MAAAM now, I guess?) is a sane grouping of giant companies because their critical offerings and expertise areas are their s…

"Google would be totally capable of reimplementing Netflix's streaming services"

Perhaps some sort of "Tube" that "You" could use to watch content, maybe with a subscription option?

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#255

Post by Impossible »

mgraczyk wrote: post #159

I worked at Facebook last year and Google this year. I don't have an insider view of the other companies but some of my closest friends work at all of them except Netflix. My guess is that none of these will stop growing in the next few years, but Facebook is especially undervalued. They execute on new products faster and better than the others listed, so regardless of current sentiment they are probably not going to…

Having worked at Facebook and seeing where they are headed I think the HN numbers are way off and this poll is mostly "what company does HN hate the most" not which is most likely to decline. Hating FB as a company is fine, and FB as a product is probably likely to decline, but they are as OP mentioned significantly better at shipping new product than any other company listed except Apple. Facebook's biggest challenges are not owning a real platform (platform holders could hurt them) and having lots of serious competitors. These are real problems, but I think their ability to fast follow can put them in #2 for a lot of different categories they care about.

Netflix has a lot of room to grow in new markets, gaming and possibly other types of media. I think they can continue to produce good content and I think some smaller players that are locking content to their own services might return to Netflix in the future (like Microsoft, Sony and EA are now all back on Steam)

I don't think any of these companies is in serious threat of decline, but out of all of them Google seems most stagnant.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#256

Post by xyzzy_plugh »

nr2x wrote: post #239
cogman10 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. What made netflix successful initially was their access to IP. That's going away fast as every IP producer is pushing for their own paid streaming service (which sucks, btw). With big heavyweights like Disney that own a huge percentage of content having their own services, netflix is really going to struggle being anything more than niche media providers (anime) and their own inhouse media. If they are lucky,…

That said, until other streaming services entered the scene I didn't appreciate exactly how good Netflix's engineering is. The only service comparable is YouTube, but even then, Netflix has much higher quality. HBO Max has a great content library, but barely works.

> I didn't appreciate exactly how good Netflix's engineering is.

This is poignant as even the shittiest streaming service can dominate with the right IP. Content is king, engineering quality is not a differentiator.

Because of this, Netflix is ripe for disruption, which we've been witnessing creep up slowly over the last decade.

Netflix is easily the first of my several subscriptions to hit the chopping block, should it come to that.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#257

Post by PHGamer »

selfhifive wrote: post #225

Facebook is only going up with its advantage in VR platforms. Netflix, on the other hand, has no real competitive advantage at this point except being the oldest streaming service with a good brand. Google is too big and too diverse to fail. Amazon's Cloud computing is going strong, still the dominant eBook platform and now dominant audiobook platform, plus retail. Apple's margins are always good. They don't need to…

googles only money maker is search and their results suck. i dont care if they are "diversivied" the only product that mattered is search and people are starting to get off it.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#258

Post by KarlKemp »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #242
cogman10 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. What made netflix successful initially was their access to IP. That's going away fast as every IP producer is pushing for their own paid streaming service (which sucks, btw). With big heavyweights like Disney that own a huge percentage of content having their own services, netflix is really going to struggle being anything more than niche media providers (anime) and their own inhouse media. If they are lucky,…

> Some is good, but a lot is garbage I suspect that's WAI in their eyes, they're optimizing for eyeballs, not so much for quality.

I'm not sure there is a difference between these concepts here. The quality Netflix is after isn't highbrow content that feeds pretentiousness but isn't actually watched. It's masterful execution of a craft, which can happen in any genre.

As an example: the original Police Academy movie had both quality and a large audience. The rest of the franchise was increasingly cringy and saw, I assume, declining viewership.

The reason why Netflix should care about quality and not just eyeballs is that it's a leading indicator: Police Academy II may well have had a larger audience, surfing on the coattails of the first installment. But that's not a sustainable strategy, and unlike the producers of Police Academy XI, Netflix can't just leave the husk and find a new home if it ruins its brand.

So for Netflix, it's not just important to get many people to watch something. They also need to come away from the experience with a wish to repeat it. There may well be more to the experience than mere enjoyment, as well: I feel like there is a sense of "quality" I get when watching something that is distinct from my enjoyment, and that I am more likely to remember it, and fondly so, if I find that quality.

All that suggests a few ideas that mere viewership wouldn't: Netflix would try, for example, to keep me from watching something that I end up despising, and especially if I do so because I consider it "low-quality". You can do reality TV even if your audience has more Ivy League credentials than a New England Hospital, but you better make sure it has a chance to become a pop-cultural phenomenon, like, say, a show about interior decorating that neatly fits into a wider trend of minimalism.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#259

Post by dynamite-ready »

TigeriusKirk wrote: post #6

Google feels the least aggressive about moving into the future.

That's because they've near enough enveloped the future. Chrome is underrated in importance, every other mobile device is based on Android, and YouTube, after almost 20 years, is still state of the art.

Thinking of things this way, Netflix is the odd one out and most likely to fail, because I reluctantly engage with products from those other brands everyday. And I suspect everyone else does too.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#260

Post by zmmmmm »

Interesting that most here are not counting the cloud businesses of Amazon / Google, but these are important because they are getting built into the foundations of a generation of companies computing infrastructure. It may not be super visible at the moment but this revenue is going to be very durable because the cost of shifting tech stacks is enormous.

Interesting that Microsoft has missed out on being a FAANG (is this just because we cant make the acronym work?) .... they are much more significant than Netflix

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