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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#241

Post by cptaj »

neogodless wrote: post #189
mgraczyk wrote: post #159

I worked at Facebook last year and Google this year. I don't have an insider view of the other companies but some of my closest friends work at all of them except Netflix. My guess is that none of these will stop growing in the next few years, but Facebook is especially undervalued. They execute on new products faster and better than the others listed, so regardless of current sentiment they are probably not going to…

What are Facebook products? And which ones are worthwhile? The only thing I could think of without cheating and using Google is the Oculus line. I'm not personally convinced there's a huge VR market, but there could be, and Facebook probably has the best product for this market. They aren't competing against the other megacorps listed in that particular market though, so I can't evaluate if they execute faster/better…

I bet he means like "Copy stories in instagram!" by "Products". I've heard a lot of social media devs talk about features as products. I'm guessing because that's how product managers see them in those orgs.

I don't find it a very good definition. Implementing a feature is not a new product.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#242

Post by mupuff1234 »

cogman10 wrote: post #185
monkeybutton wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix is facing the rise of competing streaming platforms. They're forced into creating their own content because other producers would rather release content on their own platforms and keep all the streaming revenue, rather than license it to Netflix. Streaming video on demand isn't a technical moat that is stopping anyone.

Agreed. What made netflix successful initially was their access to IP. That's going away fast as every IP producer is pushing for their own paid streaming service (which sucks, btw). With big heavyweights like Disney that own a huge percentage of content having their own services, netflix is really going to struggle being anything more than niche media providers (anime) and their own inhouse media. If they are lucky,…

> Some is good, but a lot is garbage

I suspect that's WAI in their eyes, they're optimizing for eyeballs, not so much for quality.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#243

Post by zmmmmm »

pphysch wrote: post #206

Apple is my vote. It's very easy to be a tech professional who uses a lot of tech in my free time and never rely on, interact with, or even think about Apple products beyond users that may be using them. Therefore, it's easy for me to imagine a world where Apple just doesn't exist, and not because some unknown competitor rises up. However, I don't think that is particularly likely.

I think you underestimate their ecosystem lockin for those who are bought in already. That alone will keep them going for decades unless antitrust intervenes.

Apple's real vulnerability in my view is that most of their value arises from extraordinarily high margins which in turn are driven by perception / fashion. They run the risk that losing that fashion shine at any point will rapidly cause a catastrophic loss of marketshare. Staying perpetually in fashion with young people is notoriously difficult - their default is to orient away from whatever their parents did and do something else. It's very hard too look cool copying Mom and Dad.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#244

Post by nr2x »

b9a2cab5 wrote: post #230
jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

Netflix is already on the way down. They infused all of their new shows with wokeness. Every new show feels like woke concepts are shoehorned in without regard for their impact on the story that's told. Look at the Witcher for an example. Or if you want to see this kind of shift happening over the course of a show, look at Madam Secretary. Season 1 didn't feature any of this crap and showed a strong woman main charac…

Yes, the walkout of trans employees was definitely because the CEO is too woke.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#245

Post by paxys »

Facebook (the app) is already in decline. WhatsApp has been next to impossible to monetize. Oculus/the Metaverse is an ambitious plan but ultimately pretty hard to pull off. If/when users start getting bored of Instagram, Meta will start to see warning bells. Their future lies in being able to acquire the next "big thing" in the social space, but with increased antitrust scrutiny I don't know if that will be possible either.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#246

Post by optimalsolver »

drstewart wrote: post #165
gkoberger wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google? I think you mean Alphabet ;) I think the problem with Netflix is there's a ceiling. Disney (which owns, like, all the IP out there... not to mention theme parks, sports and countless other things) is worth $288bn and Netflix is somehow worth $291bn!? Sure, Netflix has some decent movies out there... but do you really think their catalogue even begins to touch Disney? Either Disney is undervalued (probably tru…

If you're not into kids movies or superheroes, Disney's IP isn't really all that compelling.

>Disney's IP isn't really all that compelling

Are you counting the entire back catalog of 20th Century Fox?

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#247

Post by schnitzelstoat »

raydev wrote: post #233

I'm shocked that FB has so many votes here. FB may be getting slaughtered by the media, hated by both the left and the right, but the truth is no one is actually leaving FB. It's still the #1 place to find restaurants, buy/sell used items, neighborhood groups, etc etc etc. And if FB Proper were to ever fall behind, IG still has a lot of stamina left. I don't think it will happen any time soon, but I would like to see…

The question was which is the most likely to decline, not to disappear.

I don't think Facebook (or Meta) will disappear, but I do think it is the mostly likely to decline.

The only one I think may disappear is Netflix - this is because Facebook benefits from the network effect which helps slow any sudden decline as all your family are still on it etc. whereas Netflix just needs a bad run of poor quality content and it could lose a lot of subscribers to competing services.

Netflix is also less diversified (even though now it's adding Netflix Games for some reason.. we'll see how popular that is..) which further weakens its position.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#248

Post by nr2x »

missedthecue wrote: post #33
artemonster wrote: post #15

I have loads of friends who started to cancel their netflix subs and went back to piracy because they grew tired of searching for a way to watch something legally. Now its disney, hbo, prime, whatever. Screw all of this.

I remember when a Netflix subscription was like having Blockbuster inside your living room. Now its mostly just Netflix originals which aren't necessarily bad but maybe not worth it's own subscription every month.

Agree in theory, but every time I think I'm about to cancel they drop something great like Squid Game, Dark, or Witcher.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#249

Post by scottlamb »

throwawayboise wrote: post #211
cercatrova wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Netflix still offers their DVD service.

Does anyone use it? I am thinking that people are so accustomed to immediate online gratification that waiting a day or three for a DVD in the mail is just not something a lot of people will do anymore. That means you are going to have to think ahead about what you want to watch, and plan a time to do it, rather than just flopping down on the couch and surfing to find whatever catches your eye. And many people don't…

> Does anyone use it?

I think film students and the like. It's become a niche product, not a mass-market one.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#250

Post by zingplex »

roca wrote: post #186
kdmccormick wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+1, it's ridiculous and misleading that Netflix is still being included in this list after all this time. Netflix is a TV company. Their tech is a commodity. An important commodity, for sure, but it's not what makes them valuable. Their critical offering is their reach and programming. FAAMG (or MAAAM now, I guess?) is a sane grouping of giant companies because their critical offerings and expertise areas are their s…

MAGMA is my favourite string currently.

If you're changing a letter in the acronym from F (Facebook) to M (Meta), it is inconsistent to not change G (Google) to A (Alphabet).
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