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Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#461

Post by mlyle »

ineedasername wrote: post #453
mlyle wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which disregards that X may be a new source of increased deaths, not to mention that when X == COVID, the methods needed to mitigate the risk are antithetical to a mindset of "it's no big deal" because that mindset pushes back against taking even some minimal precuations. I don't think anyone has said, "fentanyl is worse for 18-44, therefore COVID is no big deal". I think the message taken was "two sources of prema…

I don't think anyone has said, "fentanyl is worse for 18-44, therefore COVID is no big deal". My intent was to make a general statement about anchoring as a technique. But in any case, you're incorrect: my own father has made this sort of remark about opioids, and I've seen it pop up in message boards, and with other (not necessarily opioid) comparisons by folks who resist masks/social distancing/vaccination.

I wonder if you're conflating arguments, though.

I've never heard the "no big deal" one. I've heard another: If responses to COVID have worsened the opioid crisis, that's a cost that should be counted against COVID mitigation measures.

(I still think this is faulty: I don't think responses to COVID have done much to change the opioid crisis. But at least this is a rational argument and open to debate).

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#462

Post by standardUser »

benjaminwootton wrote: post #132
frellus wrote: post #117

Pandemics are defined by "excess deaths" so nothing really surprising here.

Covid is vanishingly unlikely to kill people in this age group. I always find it hard to find a clear number when I Google for a recent IFR, but it’s a fraction of a fraction of a percent.

I think your assumption is very wrong. COVID is a leading cause of death for Americans in the 18-64 age group in the US. The IFR is irrelevant when counting the dead.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#463

Post by Tycho »

Manuel_D wrote: post #449
oezi wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Life expectancy is a population average. You don't die just because you reach that age. There are quite a few studies showing that life years lost due to Covid are substantial even for the eldest.

True, but it's drastically more likely that someone over 65 would have died over the course of the pandemic (which is approaching several years at this point) than someone between 18-65. Years lost from elderly deaths may be "substantial" but it's an act of wilful ignorance to pretend that it isn't a lot smaller than years of life lost from a 20 year old dying.

But also, the subset of people who died from Covid is almost certainly not akin to a random sample from the broader population of the age cohort (and therefore not a subset which you could apply those life expectancy averages to).

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#464

Post by freyr »

lkrubner wrote: post #459

Many people kept insisting "Not many young people are dying from Covid-19" a statement that over looked the fact that, under normal circumstances, not many young people die at all. But there was an article in the New York Times that offered these facts about people aged 20 to 40. July, 2019: 11,000 dead July, 2020: 16,000 dead Both numbers are small in a country where 3 million people die each year, about 250,000 a m…

How many Covid-related? How many drug overdoses? How many suicides?

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#465

Post by jollybean »

halfjoking wrote: post #438
jack_squat wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't that all make sense? I'm not sure what the issue is here. The statistic that vaccinated people 18-59 are dying at twice the rate presumably true, so of course the reuters article doesn't deny it. The Reuters article presents a totally believable explanation, which is also in the original article's comments. What they are saying is that this can be true for the age range 18-59, but simultaneously not be true f…

Yes that explanation is plausible. I replied to another comment below what I take away from that statistic… mainly that vaccine mandates are BS given other factors such as age has such an impact on mortality and spread.

Vaccines reduce the spread significantly, ergo, the mandates for even young people have a dramatic effect in reducing risk for everyone.

They are not BS.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#466

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

lkrubner wrote: post #459

Many people kept insisting "Not many young people are dying from Covid-19" a statement that over looked the fact that, under normal circumstances, not many young people die at all. But there was an article in the New York Times that offered these facts about people aged 20 to 40. July, 2019: 11,000 dead July, 2020: 16,000 dead Both numbers are small in a country where 3 million people die each year, about 250,000 a m…

If you look at expected years of life lost - and the average person is ~30 - you could multiply the numbers by ~47.

~47 x 5,000 = 235k years of life (extra).

In the US in 2020 the average age of death from Covid was ~77 [1]. People ~77 are expected to life ~10.2 years [2]. In 2020, there were ~350k Covid deaths [3]. But (very crudely) 3.5M years of life lost.

This small group of 11,000 people (3%) made up 7% of years of life lost.

By 2021, the average age of Covid death was ~67 - so the average person was losing ~17 years of life [1]. This is because that extra ~5,000 deaths has so much weight.

[1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wvpublic.org/health-science...

[2] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

[3] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#467

Post by jollybean »

halfjoking wrote: post #437
jollybean wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are confusing your data badly. Each of your references are saying completely different things. 1) non-covid excess mortality 2) mortality rate between those vaxxed and not vaxxed. 3) Reteurs was not 'debunking' point 2 or point 1. They are 'debunking' crap statements on Joe Rogan Podcast about the absollute numbers of those dying from COVID in general. Alex Berenson is terribly misrepresenting information. So whe…

> 59-year-olds are vaxxed at a much higher rate than 10 or 20 year olds. This is the only intelligent response to explain why overall mortality is 2X higher in the vaxxed group. I agree with you this could be an explanation. The problem is it still completely destroys the idea that unvaccinated are the ones who should be restricted from society. It shows your age is more important than vaccine status. Someone being o…

"This is the only intelligent response to explain why overall mortality is 2X higher in the vaxxed group."

It does not really need an explanation.

We already have conclusive data of the power of vaccines.

" The problem is it still completely destroys the idea that unvaccinated are the ones who should be restricted from society."

No it doesn't.

COVID spreads quickly among the young and old.

There is no way to systmatically just keep the vulnerable in a bubble. We can reduce their interactivity, but if COVID is widespread, that won't protect them or anyone.

Vaccines reduce spread significantly, which is why we want everyone to get them.

If you want to drive in the winter, in Canada you need to 1) have insurance 2) pass a test and 3) have winter tires 4) have your car up to a bunch of standards.

And you cannot drink and drive.

Those curtailments of your civil liberties exist because you can screw up other people's lives.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#468

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

freyr wrote: post #464
lkrubner wrote: post #459

Many people kept insisting "Not many young people are dying from Covid-19" a statement that over looked the fact that, under normal circumstances, not many young people die at all. But there was an article in the New York Times that offered these facts about people aged 20 to 40. July, 2019: 11,000 dead July, 2020: 16,000 dead Both numbers are small in a country where 3 million people die each year, about 250,000 a m…

How many Covid-related? How many drug overdoses? How many suicides?

This seems like what-about-ism.

You could look these numbers up easily on the CDCs death data, and then you could formulate a coherent thought.

Instead, it seems like you're just trying to derail the conversation with as little effort as possible.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#469

Post by diogenescynic »

SamoyedFurFluff wrote: post #383
diogenescynic wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t disagree but I think we should also be demanding more capacity from our hospitals and maybe just maybe demanding actual universal healthcare. It’s so bizarre to me that that’s not even on the table but it’s because most just assume we have to have a for-profit medical system.

Increasing capacity for hospitals is actually a hard problem, because the time it takes to train people to fill the capacity is quite high.

I agree but we should have started a recruitment campaign for more nurses etc. We’re not really doing anything it seems. We should be trying to do more. My relatives in the healthcare industry are all overworked and complain about staffing shortages. Seems like this is a bigger issue than just COVID. It’s out for-profit healthcare system…

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#470

Post by dh5 »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #466
lkrubner wrote: post #459

Many people kept insisting "Not many young people are dying from Covid-19" a statement that over looked the fact that, under normal circumstances, not many young people die at all. But there was an article in the New York Times that offered these facts about people aged 20 to 40. July, 2019: 11,000 dead July, 2020: 16,000 dead Both numbers are small in a country where 3 million people die each year, about 250,000 a m…

If you look at expected years of life lost - and the average person is ~30 - you could multiply the numbers by ~47. ~47 x 5,000 = 235k years of life (extra). In the US in 2020 the average age of death from Covid was ~77 [1]. People ~77 are expected to life ~10.2 years [2]. In 2020, there were ~350k Covid deaths [3]. But (very crudely) 3.5M years of life lost. This small group of 11,000 people (3%) made up 7% of years…

I'm not sure that calculation makes sense. If someone has already lived to 77 he probably has a much higher chance of living to 78 than the average person. And if someone has lived past 78 does that mean he's lost negative years of life?
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