This examination of pfizer's own vaccine safety study, claims that it shows an increase in all risk mortality.
https://www.canadiancovidcarealliance.org/media-resources/th...
Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#232Earlier quoted context omitted.
I commented on this elsewhere, but I think your point is fair. Many real-world processes follow power laws, but they are modeled as normal distributions. The issue with that is that a power law can "look like" a normal distribution, except it has fat tails, where you get these "once until the heat death of the universe" type events much more frequently.
Black Swan by Nassim Taleb is an entire book about this very common mistake. It's a case where highly-educated people often make errors that laypersons would not.
Anecdotally, I see a lot of pseudo-rigor in Business oriented statistics. Leadership selects the statistics and statisticians which make the most rigourous plausible model that achieves the desired outcome.
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#233Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the more thought-provoking question is what exactly is the Black Swan event? If only 37% of their ICU beds are used for COVID patients then why are so many more people dying right now?
It is the US so unlike most of the rest of the world even if there were a lot of surplus ICU beds most people can't afford the 100K USD with insurance or 1M USD with under-insurance or no insurance it would cost them out of pocket to receive treatment.
> most people can't afford the 100K USD with insurance or 1M USD with under-insurance or no insurance it would cost them out of pocket to receive treatment
Where are you getting these numbers? I know multiple people in the US who have needed a COVID ICU bed, and they certainly weren't paying $100k out of pocket to do so. In most areas of the US, $100k could buy you a small house.
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#234> Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” Do we have an actuarial crisis on our hands? We’ve seen the same thing in finance, disaster preparedness and other unrelated industries. We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years. And how does it…
> And how does it even pass muster that a 10% increase in deaths would be a “once in 200 years” event. When has there ever been a 200 year period without major war, disease or disaster? What exactly are they smoking? I don't know if it's a once in 200 years event or not, but this is a US insurance company, presumably talking about numbers in the US. Aside from ww2, in which the US had around 400,000 deaths, the numbe…
More than half of the covid deaths were the elderly.
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#235I feel like article like this one are commonly used by the anti-vaccine community. They point to those ominous, rising death numbers and understand them as evidence for the dangers of mRNA vaccines. It would therefore (among other reasons) be helpful to understand where exactly that rise in numbers comes from, is it vaccines (which I don't think, else we'd be seeing a similar spike in, say, Europe)? Or is it being ca…
The anti-vaccination people don’t need facts, so anything that creates FUD works for them. I live in a protest corridor, and the “freedom lovers” were demanding that we sacrifice the weak and old so that they could enjoy not getting a vaccine. It’s a gross type of mental illness.
> "freedom lovers" were demanding that we sacrifice the weak and old
Isn't it the opposite? I recall various right-leaning figures talking about 'sacrificing' the young. Release them in order to get natural immunity, while locking up the old until that process is done. I think that was a rather bad idea, especially with the hindsight of knowing how quickly the vaccines were ready, but that's separate.
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#236> Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” Do we have an actuarial crisis on our hands? We’ve seen the same thing in finance, disaster preparedness and other unrelated industries. We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years. And how does it…
> We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years. "Experts" making such a statement usually assume the variable in question to be standard distributed – which is close enough to the truth for non-extreme outcomes. But a lot of variables do not behave like the perfect standard distribution at all: due to non-linear effects and self-enforcing feedback loops, their distributi…
Many probability distributions have a variance[1], not only the standard distribution. Why do you think there is no variance for your "fat-tailed distribution"?
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#237Here's an interesting video about an increase in sports-related deaths and heart-attacks. Maybe it's related? https://rumble.com/vpnxkr-are-these-side-effects-extremely-r...
Sudden cardiac death has always been surprisingly frequent in healthy athletes, so there’s a lot of room for observational bias here. (2016) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4969030/ > A recent estimate of SCD incidence ranged from 1 in 40,000 to 1 in 80,000 athletes per year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_association_footballer...
21 in 2021
3 in 2020
3 in 2019
4 in 2018
7 in 2017
8 in 2016
9 in 2015
5 in 2014
10 in 2013
8 in 2012
3 in 2011
9 in 2010
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#238With few exceptions, if you want to know what's really going on, the insurance companies are the numbers to draw from. They have a vested interest in knowing what's happening and people usually have a vested interest in reporting to them to collect resources.
(The exception is when there are secondary effects. Auto insurance reporting under samples minor accidents, because people don't want to risk their perfect driving record rate bonuses on a fender-bender. But there are no incentives to refrain from collecting on life insurance.)
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#239> Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” Do we have an actuarial crisis on our hands? We’ve seen the same thing in finance, disaster preparedness and other unrelated industries. We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years. And how does it…
Maybe it's similar to the well known "more likely to be hit by a meteorite than to win the lottery" style statements. Obviously that's completely wrong: i've never heard of anyone being hit by a meteorite, but people win the lottery every month. I'm not saying that they're actively lying, but it seems some assumptions in these frequentist's numbers are just not correct.
There’s a confounding effect arising from the difficulty in comparing false negative rates between person-meteor-strike and person-lottery-jackpot. Whereas lottery-jackpot events are rarely misinterpreted as some prat dropping rubbish onto person, person-meteor-strike too often is.
Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
#240Mortality rates are basically up in all countries (at least those who can adequately measure it). My bet is that "after Covid" we will see rates under the pre-pandemic value for a couple of years as Covid was most lethal to those that would have died the next 0-5 years anyways without it.