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Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#211

Post by whatgoodisaroad »

seoaeu wrote: post #120
hnburnsy wrote: post #70

Just for background and not trying to malign the source, but the was at a press conference where the Chamber of Commerce and hospital leaders were imploring state residents to get vaccinated as to avoid a vaccine mandate that the state legislature was considering for employers Feels like the insurance guy at this press conference is trying to 'scare' young folks into getting the vaccine. My question is, the life insu…

You allege bias, but the CEO of your life insurance company is like the textbook example of someone whose incentives are aligned with yours…

Not strictly so. An example of misaligned incentives would be an insurance salesman/CEO overstating the likelihood of death, and thus overstating the likelihood of a payout to the customer. This hypothetical would result in greater margin for the insurer.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#212

Post by hattmall »

jeremyjh wrote: post #185
s1artibartfast wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years. I just don't take it seriously anymore. Track 200 factors, 200 businesses, or 200 industries and you will see 1 event per year. Track all of the above and you will see 40,000 such events in a year. More to the point, their actuarial model was probably wrong, not reality. Somewhere buried in their model were assumptions exclu…

I think the more thought-provoking question is what exactly is the Black Swan event? If only 37% of their ICU beds are used for COVID patients then why are so many more people dying right now?

Homicides are up, In Atlanta it's 65% from 2019, other cities are similar. I think car fatalities as well. Then the isolation, COVID fears and economic issues have made worse an already growing drug and suicide problem.

I've known of quite a few deaths of youngish people recently and only one was COVID related. Car crashes, ODs and other medical issues. Like I've known two girls both about 30 that died unexpectedly of non-covid medical issues last year.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#213

Post by nkmnz »

encoderer wrote: post #138

> Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” Do we have an actuarial crisis on our hands? We’ve seen the same thing in finance, disaster preparedness and other unrelated industries. We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years. And how does it…

> We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years.

"Experts" making such a statement usually assume the variable in question to be standard distributed – which is close enough to the truth for non-extreme outcomes. But a lot of variables do not behave like the perfect standard distribution at all: due to non-linear effects and self-enforcing feedback loops, their distribution deviates more and more from the standard distribution the more extreme their values gets (they are "fat-tailed"). Referring to the n-sigma of such extreme events is plain and simple stupid, because there's no such thing as a standard deviation (or variance) for a fat-tailed distribution.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#214

Post by 542458 »

newacc9 wrote: post #113
yehosef wrote: post #106

Here's an interesting video about an increase in sports-related deaths and heart-attacks. Maybe it's related? https://rumble.com/vpnxkr-are-these-side-effects-extremely-r...

There's funeral directors on youtube and bitchute that say their workload has increased 5x and the deaths are all heart related.

That doesn’t pass smell test to me. A 5x increase in workload for funeral homes would mean ballpark 5x as many deaths. That would be apocalyptic and impossible to miss. Every ER doc and ambulance driver in the US would be talking about it. For reference, the 2020 death rate is only about 1.15x the 2019 rate due to covid.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#215

Post by bazooka_penguin »

erdewit wrote: post #183

Here in the Netherlands there's also a sharp increase in the excess mortality that can't be explained by COVID deaths. https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

Lockdown/wfh related perhaps? I would definitely say I've become significantly more sedentary, likewise for many of my friends and coworkers, given we're all in tech.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#216

Post by cycrutchfield »

newacc9 wrote: post #113
yehosef wrote: post #106

Here's an interesting video about an increase in sports-related deaths and heart-attacks. Maybe it's related? https://rumble.com/vpnxkr-are-these-side-effects-extremely-r...

There's funeral directors on youtube and bitchute that say their workload has increased 5x and the deaths are all heart related.

I too get my trusted news from random YouTube sources

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#217

Post by blihp »

WriterGuy2021 wrote: post #134

I don't know what's going on and I'm scared.

People aren't getting as much exercise, sitting around more eating cheetos and drinking beer, doing more drugs and getting more depressed. I'm not suggesting that all of those are happening to everyone, but each of them is a risk factor and due to the pandemic they're occurring to different segments of the population at the same time.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#218

Post by csee »

toss1 wrote: post #96
k2enemy wrote: post #6

I'm actually surprised it is not higher. For 40-64 year old in the US, the annual chance of death is about half a percent (before covid) so a 40% increase is still a very low mortality rate. https://hdpulse.nimhd.nih.gov/data/deathrates/index.php?stat...

Quoted post unavailable.

> a significant portion end up losing 7-10 IQ points just from dementia

There probably is an IQ drop, but I question this figure. I recall a study doing the rounds here which showed this figure as a ballpark and it was very low quality.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#219

Post by uncletaco »

resoluteteeth wrote: post #209
encoderer wrote: post #138

> Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” Do we have an actuarial crisis on our hands? We’ve seen the same thing in finance, disaster preparedness and other unrelated industries. We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years. And how does it…

> And how does it even pass muster that a 10% increase in deaths would be a “once in 200 years” event. When has there ever been a 200 year period without major war, disease or disaster? What exactly are they smoking? I don't know if it's a once in 200 years event or not, but this is a US insurance company, presumably talking about numbers in the US. Aside from ww2, in which the US had around 400,000 deaths, the numbe…

I'm guessing your comment is about people who died since WW2 but an estimated 750k died in the civil war.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#220

Post by i_cannot_hack »

brianwawok wrote: post #104
brilee wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming risk is evenly distributed between birth and death, you would expect a 1 in 80 chance of dying in any given year. But since the risk is loaded towards the later years of life, 1 in 200 during the earlier years sounds about right. Perhaps it's 2x higher than I would have guessed otherwise, but it's the right order of magnitude.

No that is bad math around 1/80. If the average person had a 1/80 chance to die each year, the average life expectancy would be 40 years. Think about this another way. You have a gun with 80 chambers and 1 bullet. How many times on average can you point it at your head and pull the trigger before it goes off? Would you still argue 80 times? On average it is the last chamber?

Your last example is not applicable.

The question is comparable to a gun with infinitely many chambers, each with a 1/80 chance of containing a bullet: How many times on average can you point it at your head and pull the trigger? The differences are that you have no guarantee that the first 80 chambers will contain exactly 1 bullet, that more than one chamber can contain a bullet, and that you can pull the trigger more than 80 times.

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