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Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#81

Post by brilee »

jb1991 wrote: post #76
k2enemy wrote: post #6

I'm actually surprised it is not higher. For 40-64 year old in the US, the annual chance of death is about half a percent (before covid) so a 40% increase is still a very low mortality rate. https://hdpulse.nimhd.nih.gov/data/deathrates/index.php?stat...

I’m surprised it is as high as you claim! You’re saying that for that age group, in a given year, the chances are 1 in 200 of dying? That seems like pretty bad odds on something that is literally life and death.

Assuming risk is evenly distributed between birth and death, you would expect a 1 in 80 chance of dying in any given year. But since the risk is loaded towards the later years of life, 1 in 200 during the earlier years sounds about right. Perhaps it's 2x higher than I would have guessed otherwise, but it's the right order of magnitude.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#82

Post by netizen-936824 »

notreallyserio wrote: post #72
netizen-936824 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He is making a statement on his data and saying that elderly aren't dying at the same rate. How is it possible to take that any way besides literally?

I dunno what the disconnect is but you may be the only one struggling with the meaning behind the words. I don't see him referring to the death rate of people outside 18-64 at all. You could say his information is biased because it is limited to folks that have insurance through his company, but he's up front about that.

>it’s not elderly people who are dying

Quoted verbatim from the source article. This is a plain statement on the death rate of that specific age group.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#83

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

k2enemy wrote: post #6

I'm actually surprised it is not higher. For 40-64 year old in the US, the annual chance of death is about half a percent (before covid) so a 40% increase is still a very low mortality rate. https://hdpulse.nimhd.nih.gov/data/deathrates/index.php?stat...

Define "very low". I think the "half a percent" number can seem "artificially" low because it's just looking at the probability of death in a single year. Looking at US actuarial tables, even an 80 year old has an annual chance of death of less than 5%. Just looking at that number alone may make one think that is a "low" death rate, but nobody is surprised when an 80 year-old dies.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#84

Post by pletnes »

TRossi wrote: post #75

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” This sounds very strange indeed, I'd like to see the numbers. For instance Euromomo https://www.euromomo.eu collects the statistics about death rates, here is a plot for the Italian death rate and you can see the mortality spikes with the covid wa…

If the dataset which went into the «3 sigma» had no major catastrophes, like WW2 / covid / … then such an event can probably get you into «3 sigma territory».

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#85

Post by cm2187 »

jb1991 wrote: post #76
k2enemy wrote: post #6

I'm actually surprised it is not higher. For 40-64 year old in the US, the annual chance of death is about half a percent (before covid) so a 40% increase is still a very low mortality rate. https://hdpulse.nimhd.nih.gov/data/deathrates/index.php?stat...

I’m surprised it is as high as you claim! You’re saying that for that age group, in a given year, the chances are 1 in 200 of dying? That seems like pretty bad odds on something that is literally life and death.

Probably highly skewed to the upper end of that age range.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#86

Post by zo1 »

netizen-936824 wrote: post #15
omosubi wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why must it be a comparison? A 40% increase in deaths for any population is mind boggling

Because the quoted source is literally making the comparison, which I am saying is incorrect because his data is biased. Please reread the piece I quoted to see the comparison >that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64”

You're being oddly pedanti? He could mean any number of things with that mention of elderly people.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#87

Post by derefr »

rob74 wrote: post #68
derefr wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably because sites not available in the EU aren’t legally obligated to annoy everyone with cookie consent banners.

IANAL, but I doubt that sites not available in the EU are legally obligated to annoy non-EU visitors with cookie consent banners? Of course, it's easier to annoy everyone, but if you can block EU visitors based on their IP you can also show the cookie consent banner only for these IPs?

Because the banners are targeted at EU citizens, not people geographically within the EU. You're required to show the banners to e.g. EU citizens living in the US.

ETA: under GDPR, blocking the EU geographically (e.g. via GeoIP), in combination with requiring user registrations to specify that they’re not EU citizens, would be considered a “good-faith effort” to avoid collecting the data of EU citizens.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#88

Post by austinkhale »

netizen-936824 wrote: post #63
austinkhale wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re misinterpreting his statement. He isn’t making a claim about elderly death rates. He’s saying the pandemic (both the disease and other effects) is affecting a younger, working cohort as well, based on their available data.

I am saying that comparison is wrong, because he is missing data for the age group that he is comparing against.

I believe where you are interpreting it one way and the rest of us are interpreting it another is perhaps due to missing the quotation marks.

...deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18...

Davidson, the CEO in question, directly said "huge, huge numbers" and "primarily working-age people 18..." in his address. However the author of the article, Margaret Menge, added the "that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying" piece.

Essentially Margaret, as explained in another comment, used a literary construction to tie the quotes together. The sentence is being used to convey that contrary to the popular narrative that the pandemic is only killing the elderly, here we have evidence that it's affecting other cohorts as well.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#89

Post by resoluteteeth »

TRossi wrote: post #75

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” This sounds very strange indeed, I'd like to see the numbers. For instance Euromomo https://www.euromomo.eu collects the statistics about death rates, here is a plot for the Italian death rate and you can see the mortality spikes with the covid wa…

> It sounds very strange that the death spike is "over" 3 sigma, which should mean over 3 standard deviations, which is really unbelievable, to me this looks like an artefact of some sort

Why does the fact that it is larger than 3 standard deviations suggest to you that it must be an artifact? If the death rate is normally very stable then the standard deviation will be small, so it will be easy for any unusual increase to exceed that.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#90

Post by kyleblarson »

He says it's going to cost the company more but could there also be an increased incentive for covered employees to increase their coverage and thus increase the premium revenue to OneAmerica? I am generally dubious when the CEO of a (private) company that's bottom line is so closely tied to death rates publishes an article with such a nice round number increase in the death rate.
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