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New Temperature Records for the UK

metoffice.gov.uk

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Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#71

Post by spywaregorilla »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #16

I see people talking about weather getting unpredictable. This was predictable, and was predicted: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ . The technical summary is 160 pages and should be required reading for anyone over the age of 13: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6... . The Paris Agreement, for all its problems, tries to keep increase below 1.5 C over pre-industrial. We are locked in for…

Climate change does make the weather less predictable, as in higher variance on things like storms. So... they're probably not disagreeing with you.

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#72

Post by irthomasthomas »

ben_w wrote: post #64
irthomasthomas wrote: post #30

It was 15C NYE and the record was 18.0C at Abergwyngregyn, Gwynedd in 1972. I am pretty happy to be honest, considering the fuel crisis, this is a blessing to some. I am not convinced that life everywhere will suddenly be terrible just because it is a little warmer. We had warm periods before and things got better. The Late Bronze Warm Period, The Roman Warm period, and the Middle Age Warm Period. https://imgr.search…

First, it’s going to be a bigger change than those periods. The “business as usual” scenario is warmer than today by the degree to which today is warmer than the ice ages. (And I think at least some of those were local climate changes, not global ones?) Second, it’s not about life everywhere except for people who stop as soon as they finish the headlines. Some farmland will go from marginal to good, others from good…

I added a greenland temperature chart overlayed with historical events. Yes, the previous warm periods mentioned where global, they where a lot warmer than today and things mostly got better. The last IPCC report fails to account for global greening, which is a giant effect. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/greening-of-the-earth-mitigates...

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#73

Post by irthomasthomas »

malandrew wrote: post #70
ben_w wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, it’s going to be a bigger change than those periods. The “business as usual” scenario is warmer than today by the degree to which today is warmer than the ice ages. (And I think at least some of those were local climate changes, not global ones?) Second, it’s not about life everywhere except for people who stop as soon as they finish the headlines. Some farmland will go from marginal to good, others from good…

Do you know of any maps showing the relative position of the guest team over the UK over time? Curious to see if there’s a prediction that Scotland becomes a lot nicer weather wise as it is at the northern end of the UK.

It is well known that the Romans had many vineyards in Scotland making wine during the RWP.

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#74

Post by subpixel »

wedn3sday wrote: post #44

An alternate reading: this is the coldest winter for the next century.

A comment that stuck with me during the summer of 2021, when heat domes baked Sweden and Seattle and California and Greece were on fire, was that it was likely the coolest summer of the next decade.

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#75

Post by kpmah »

irthomasthomas wrote: post #30

It was 15C NYE and the record was 18.0C at Abergwyngregyn, Gwynedd in 1972. I am pretty happy to be honest, considering the fuel crisis, this is a blessing to some. I am not convinced that life everywhere will suddenly be terrible just because it is a little warmer. We had warm periods before and things got better. The Late Bronze Warm Period, The Roman Warm period, and the Middle Age Warm Period. https://imgr.search…

Science denial. It's not going to stop at 'a little warmer'.

https://skepticalscience.com/10000-years-warmer.htm

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#76

Post by gambiting »

hiptobecubic wrote: post #69
gambiting wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that's very nice and all, but what does it have to do with saving the planet? Even if you don't need to have a job to survive, how do you go about helping? I'm not trying to be sarcastic, I'm genuienly curious.

Spending your efforts on environmental work rather than building blockchain-powered juicing machines or tinder for sweatshop workers.

Yes but it's not one or the other - there's million different things to do in software before getting to the level of building blockchain crap.

Also I'm really curious what people consider valuable environmental work - like, if you didn't have to work for money tomorrow, what kind of environmental work exactly would you take on?

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#77

Post by toast0 »

mhh__ wrote: post #17
iqanq wrote: post #3

Given the terrible problems we are having with energy prices, I will interpret this as God laying His hands upon us :P

As far as I'm aware, the Bible does instruct the faithful Christian to look after god's creation. Considering the zeal of American Christianity, this has apparently been lost on many (i.e. the cold atheists in Europe are doing a better job).

> Considering the zeal of American Christianity, this has apparently been lost on many

As an american atheist, an awful lot of American Christians don't seem to follow much of the teachings of the Bible.

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#78

Post by ben_w »

irthomasthomas wrote: post #72
ben_w wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, it’s going to be a bigger change than those periods. The “business as usual” scenario is warmer than today by the degree to which today is warmer than the ice ages. (And I think at least some of those were local climate changes, not global ones?) Second, it’s not about life everywhere except for people who stop as soon as they finish the headlines. Some farmland will go from marginal to good, others from good…

I added a greenland temperature chart overlayed with historical events. Yes, the previous warm periods mentioned where global, they where a lot warmer than today and things mostly got better. The last IPCC report fails to account for global greening, which is a giant effect. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/greening-of-the-earth-mitigates...

I’ve worked with MODIS satellite data.

Quoting your own link: """The vegetation cooling effect is large from the energy dissipation perspective, but only about 10%-20% compared to the pace of global warming. The cooling effect from greening is less significant in tropical forests with high leaf areas."""

Regarding the previous warm periods, I was right, and I just now found the following reference to demonstrate this:

"""More recent research, including a 2019 analysis based on a much larger dataset of climate proxies, has found that the putative period [the Roman Warm Period], along with other warmer or colder pre-industrial periods such as the "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period," were regional phenomena, not globally-coherent episodes.[7] That analysis uses the temperature record of the last 2,000 years dataset compiled by the PAGES 2k Consortium 2017.[7]"""

[7] https://boris.unibe.ch/132301/7/333323_4_merged_1557735881.p...

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#79

Post by wolverine876 »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #16

I see people talking about weather getting unpredictable. This was predictable, and was predicted: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ . The technical summary is 160 pages and should be required reading for anyone over the age of 13: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6... . The Paris Agreement, for all its problems, tries to keep increase below 1.5 C over pre-industrial. We are locked in for…

> I plan on retiring from software soon to devote the rest of my life to technical and political work to keep Earth habitable for subsequent generations

That is fantastic and inspiring. I'm shifting my life around in order to focus on similar priorities.

For people who think it is extreme, this is my perspective: Previous generations built 99% of what we have - the political system (freedom, democracy, peace, better justice), the economy, the knowledge, arts and culture, the endless social goods (school, healthcare, FOSS, etc.), the technology. How are we building on that for the next? Environmental catastrophe? Political chaos and social distrust? Online manipulation, cryptocurrency scams, and lulz? So far, IMHO we are mostly liquidating, as vulture capitalists, that largess by our predecessors - by their hard work, their forward thinking to build a 'More Perfect Union', and their sacrifices:

Many sacrificed everything. Some saw nothing more of life than high school, boot camp, and a bullet. Too grim? Too dramatic? Too serious? That's reality; it's too late in the day, in our myriad crises, to hold back so that it's not too challenging or upsetting. I'm not saying everyone should do what I do (certainly not - they should figure out what is right for them, as individuals), but I think we all have very serious obligations. We have the free choice to do good or bad; the good news is, the results are up to us.

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#80

Post by jacquesm »

hardlianotion wrote: post #6
jacquesm wrote: post #2

NL as well, one record after another is broken. Today I saw some very confused wasps and bees flying around, in 15 degree Celsius weather.

Same here in France. Chased a bumblebee out of my living room and any number of confused flies. The weather has gone from unusually deep and early snow to scenes resembling later spring. Similarly confused weather patterns in West Africa in the last few years - the regular weather pattern of my youth seems to be breaking down into something altogether less reliable and worrying.

It's pretty wild. People keep saying that 'climate change is happening too slow to be noticed over a human life span', but I actually think that isn't true, it is in fact very noticeable. The winters from my youth are gone and my parents thought that the ones in the 70's were mild (with one or two exceptions).

Here we now have essentially 6 months of autumn that switches straight into an early summer.

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