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Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

brusselstimes.com

191–200 of 296 posts

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#191
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s really not true though. 99.9% effective might not be good enough for an Antarctic research base, but that’s a pretty unusual circumstance. We’d be thrilled if our current countermeasures against Covid were 99.9% effective; we would’ve ended this in 2020 if that were the case. If I understand correctly, you can mathematically model how effective countermeasures have to be in order to suppress a virus with a giv…

Can you give a source for that 93% efficiency of measles vaccine? Accuracy for 2 digits is very suspicious. Measles symptoms depend strongly on nutrition deficiencies with insufficient vitamin C being especially bad. If that is not the case, one can be asymptomatic and then we never know about infection.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/measles/index.html

> The MMR vaccine is very safe and effective. Two doses of MMR vaccine are about 97% effective at preventing measles; one dose is about 93% effective.

Prevention of Measles, Rubella, Congenital Rubella Syndrome, and Mumps, 2013 Summary Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) at https://www.jstor.org/stable/24832555

> One dose of measles-containing vaccine administered at age ≥12 months was approximately 94% effective in preventing measles (range: 39%–98%) in studies conducted in the WHO Region of the Americas (141,142). Measles outbreaks among populations that have received 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine are uncommon. The effectiveness of 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine was ≥99% in two studies conducted in the United States and 67%, 85%–≥94%, and 100% in three studies in Canada (142–146). The range in 2-dose vaccine effectiveness in the Canadian studies can be attributed to extremely small numbers (i.e., in the study with a 2-dose vaccine effectiveness of 67%, one 2-dose vaccinated person with measles and one unvaccinated person with measles were reported [145]). This range of effectiveness also can be attributed to age at vaccination (i.e., the 85% vaccine effectiveness represented children vaccinated at age 12 months, whereas the ≥94% vaccine effectiveness represented children vaccinated at age ≥15 months [146]). Furthermore, two studies found the incremental effectiveness of 2 doses was 89% and 94%, compared with 1 dose of measles-containing vaccine (145,147). Similar estimates of vaccine effectiveness have been reported from Australia and Europe (Table 1) (141).

No mention of vitamin C. Given that "After exposure, up to 90% of susceptible persons develop measles", it seems very unlikely that differences in vitamin C play an important role.

What are your sources? I found nothing on PubMed nor Google Scholar, though I did find that vitamin C is promoted to antivaxxers (eg, http://www.amcli.it/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/bmj-measles-f... ).

You write "depend strongly on nutrition deficiencies", which my cited article describes as "In low to middle income countries where malnutrition is common, measles is often more severe and the case-fatality ratio can be as high as 25%".

That's calorie deficient, but not specifically vitamin deficient.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#192
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not so sure; respectfully disagree. This only talks about process stricture, not efficacy or process compliance/lapse. Plausible hypothesis, but needs more data.

If I've learned something about people during the pandemic, it's that the average person is far less intelligent and far less compliant than I previously believed. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to find out this was caused by people not complying with protocols. Or at the very least, not having an understanding of the fact that COVID transmission is aerosol, and that breathing reshared air even for a few secon…

Scientists heading to the Belgian station are probably fairly smart. As for compliance, my experience with highly intelligent people is that they tend to be less compliant or predictable than others, so you may be right that this was due to a lapse in compliance.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#193

Viruses are interesting things. I once enjoyed a case study about an outbreak of common cold on an Antarctic base that only happened after 17 weeks of isolation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/ (I'm no virologist but given that the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK at all, whereas flu was, I've gotten the - uneducated - feeling the cold is a bit like some S…

I really do wonder how many and for how long viruses can stay in a person's nasal secretions until conditions are ideal again.

Maybe some sinus washes would help.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#194
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a native speaker. Just to clarify: shedding the virus means being infectious? Or just their body is still doing cleanup but not necessarily that the virus is still intact and contagious/infectious? (The dictionary entry for shedding doesn't feel specific enough to draw conclusions from.)

The sibling comment answered this. But pro-tip, use an industry dictionary to define jargon. In this case a medical dictionary might help. For reference here’s what the Merriam Webster Medical Dictionary says: To discharge usually gradually from the body (e.g. exposed persons may shed virus from the oropharynx)

Thanks for the tip! I didn't know of that dictionary. In this case that's still ambiguous though as it doesn't indicate whether this discharged material is infectious or not, but perhaps then the word is simply ambiguous. (The sibling comment answered that, though: "It doesn't necessarily mean they are shedding active virions. Sometimes there are just leftover fragments")

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s literally the dumbest line of logic and my barely literate neighbor justifies his antivax status with the same theory. “What do the doctors who have declined the vaccine know that I don’t” Even though over 99% of practicing doctors and something like 99.9% of hospitalists are vaccinated, they hold up that 1/1,000 as some sort of “truthsayer”. If 999 experts in a field told you they trusted something and 1/1,000…

Well, I personally know three and have seen many videos of others who feel that the risks outweigh the benefits for healthy people who have natural immunity. So, that's more than one.

Just nonsense. “Natural immunity” is another one of those amazing shibboleth words for those who don’t understand probabilities. It’s kind of amazing how innumerate most antivax people are.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#196

Viruses are interesting things. I once enjoyed a case study about an outbreak of common cold on an Antarctic base that only happened after 17 weeks of isolation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/ (I'm no virologist but given that the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK at all, whereas flu was, I've gotten the - uneducated - feeling the cold is a bit like some S…

Ebola's going to be the next "fun" one that pops up. https://www.science.org/content/article/new-ebola-outbreak-l...

Try Nipah Virus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nipah_virus_infection

Read that and be afraid.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#197
post #43

Viruses are interesting things. I once enjoyed a case study about an outbreak of common cold on an Antarctic base that only happened after 17 weeks of isolation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/ (I'm no virologist but given that the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK at all, whereas flu was, I've gotten the - uneducated - feeling the cold is a bit like some S…

They very much are interesting, and that's a pretty wild story. There are people a lot smarter than me, doctors in the field, that think we have some of our fundamental understanding of viruses wrong. I haven't read enough to take a stance that 100+ years of research is incorrect, but I do love hearing alternative hypotheses on a variety of topics. I don't think there's any harm in hearing what others have to say, at…

What aspect, specifically, is suspected to be wrong? The scientific understanding of viruses might be further along than most doctors suspect. There are concepts like pangenome that are becoming appreciated at the research level that might not have gotten to doctors yet.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#198
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They very much are interesting, and that's a pretty wild story. There are people a lot smarter than me, doctors in the field, that think we have some of our fundamental understanding of viruses wrong. I haven't read enough to take a stance that 100+ years of research is incorrect, but I do love hearing alternative hypotheses on a variety of topics. I don't think there's any harm in hearing what others have to say, at…

What aspect, specifically, is suspected to be wrong? The scientific understanding of viruses might be further along than most doctors suspect. There are concepts like pangenome that are becoming appreciated at the research level that might not have gotten to doctors yet.

>What aspect, specifically, is suspected to be wrong?

That depends on who you ask. Different people have different hypotheses and concepts they explore.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#199
post #55

I imagine they probably have a central air system recirculating the air.

A top flight HVAC system will have a Heat Recovery Ventilator, which is a heat exchanger that warms up incoming fresh air using the heat from the exhaust air.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#200
post #95

Viruses are interesting things. I once enjoyed a case study about an outbreak of common cold on an Antarctic base that only happened after 17 weeks of isolation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/ (I'm no virologist but given that the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK at all, whereas flu was, I've gotten the - uneducated - feeling the cold is a bit like some S…

If I get really low on sleep I’ll usually develop a cold, even if I haven’t been around anyone that’s had one in some time. I feel like there’s a lot to virology we don’t have a good grasp on.

The same thing happens to me. But it doesn't have to be a virus, it may be bacteria living in our body and waiting for a moment when our immune system weakens (like after prolonged stress). It's been known for a while our body is crawling with some bad boys, like Staphylococcus aureus for example.
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