Newer and larger study: Thirty-Day Outcomes of Children and Adolescents With COVID-19: An International Experience
https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/148/3/e20200...
Is this truth? I really do not know.
Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu
51–60 of 108 posts
Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu
#52Keep in mind of course that a chart of the risk of serious illness from the flu by age range looks like a saddle. The risk for those 5-49 is pretty low. But the risk for those 0-4 and 50-64 are both much higher.
Does the saddle look the same for COVID? Newborns are certainly uniquely susceptible to any illness, but I've not seen evidence that toddlers (2-4) are at especially high risk. Does anyone have data on how serious illness affects kids at these ages?
Yes, it does seem to look the same for Covid, see e.g. here [1]. Note that this paper is likely before Delta, and the age bracket 0-4 does not match yours.
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0/figures/2
Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu
#53[dead]
Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu
#54This article is from before Delta and is way out of date. Even at face value at the time, the numbers show that covid is worse than the flu in terms of pediatric deaths. And that was pre-delta and now omicron. Things are likely better now that kids can be vaccinated but even at the time this was a nonsense argument from NPR.
South Africa health minister confirmed that Omicron is a mild variant and is far less dangerous than Delta. It has also been confirmed that children: 1. Have higher chances of getting myocarditis after getting vaccinated. 2. Develop long lasting immunity after being exposed to the virus [1] That makes me believe that there is absolutely no reason to vaccinate kids. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-01089…
I mean #1 has been widely debunked and in #2 they didn't test against Delta or Omicron. Maybe the results generalize but from the adult studies we've seen all show reduced neutralizing responses to Delta and Omicron as compared to the original strain.
Prior infection seems better against Delta but omicron is it's own thing as in immunity is not maintained. Interestingly omicron infection may protect against delta however.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evade...
"Plasma samples from 19 children and 18 adults at >6 months after primary infection were tested for binding to spike and RBD from Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351) and Gamma (P.1) variants compared to the original Wuhan genotype, which was used in previous assays."
Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be clear the 0.89% figure was obtained by dividing hospitalizations by population, so it includes many unvaccinated people who have not caught COVID (yet). The chance that an unvaccinated person who is COVID-positive will require hospitalization is around 3%.
Are these numbers for the US?
Yes. You can do a quick and dirty estimate working backwards from the article's own figure of 2.6 million COVID hospitalizations in the US. If you very generously assume 1/3 of Americans have been infected, you get a hospitalization rate of 2.3%. If you assume the vaccines prevent hospitalizations, then the risk to the unvaccinated must be higher.
Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
Quoted post unavailable.
This is false. The current vaccine still makes one about 60x less likely to die of covid than being unvaccinated. It's ineffective at preventing infection to omicron, but highly effective at preventing death.
No post body was provided.
Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does the saddle look the same for COVID? Newborns are certainly uniquely susceptible to any illness, but I've not seen evidence that toddlers (2-4) are at especially high risk. Does anyone have data on how serious illness affects kids at these ages?
Yes, it does seem to look the same for Covid, see e.g. here [1]. Note that this paper is likely before Delta, and the age bracket 0-4 does not match yours. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0/figures/2
Thanks for the link. I guess it does look roughly like the trends for the flu, though honestly neither one looks like a saddle to me. A saddle is much more symmetrical, and these look more like linear functions with a small blip on the far left side.
I'd still be interested to know if the 0-4 age group has homogeneous risk, or if the real risk is among 0-6 (or 12) month old babies. I have a 2 year old and we have been very cautious, but haven't seen any evidence that kids this age are at much risk for serious illness or death.
Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu
#58But the risk for children getting sick at school and bringing it back to their parents very much does not play out like the flu. I also think it is irresponsible for this article to not mention what ages they’re actually talking about. At some point there is a crossover of the risk and it may be in the younger to mid teens.
The parents should be vaccinated, unless they have medical reason for not being able to.
I'm vaccinated and I'm not particularly concerned about my kids bringing the virus home now. I'm more worried for them.
Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu
#59Newer and larger study: Thirty-Day Outcomes of Children and Adolescents With COVID-19: An International Experience https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/148/3/e20200... Is this truth? I really do not know.
Why not share the results rather than a link-only comment?
> Dyspnea, bronchiolitis, anosmia, and gastrointestinal symptoms were more common in COVID-19 than influenza. In-hospital prevalent treatments for COVID-19 included repurposed medications (<10%) and adjunctive therapies: systemic corticosteroids (6.8%–7.6%), famotidine (9.0%–28.1%), and antithrombotics such as aspirin (2.0%–21.4%), heparin (2.2%–18.1%), and enoxaparin (2.8%–14.8%). Hospitalization was observed in 0.3% to 1.3% of the cohort diagnosed with COVID-19, with undetectable (n < 5 per database) 30-day fatality. Thirty-day outcomes including pneumonia and hypoxemia were more frequent in COVID-19 than influenza.
Re: Children's Risk of Serious Illness from Covid-19 Is as Low as It Is for the Flu
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
I read that the risk of death is reduced about tenfold, and meanwhile you are still infectious. Not a risk I am willing to take. Why are non-pharmaceutical interventions downplayed? Where are the promised paid sick days?
I'm not sure I understand you correctly. You do not want to take a vaccine that provides a tenfold reduction of the risk of dying from the Omicron variant? Or are you arguing that vaccinations with the existing vaccines should continue until better vaccines are available, in combination with other measures such as lockdowns, mask wearing, mandatory testing and quarantine, etc. If it's the latter, that's what most cou…
What I'm saying is that current vaccines are quite ineffectual against the present strain of the virus, and that NPI's, such as masking, social distancing, testing and quarantine are effective but not used. Having schools open in an active phase of the pandemic is the exact opposite of what should be done, that's how the virus spreads between households.
Under the Orange Menace we had financial support for those who lost their jobs and loans for businesses that lost customers whereas the present administration fails to deliver at every front. They can't even do the promised paid sick leave. That's what would be needed now, instead we get shortened quarantine periods. You can't even get a quicktest if you wanted to.