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Ask HN: How to use technical analysis for long term investing?

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Re: Ask HN: How to use technical analysis for long term investing?

#11

Post by fakeElonMusk »

deanmoriarty wrote: post #10
fakeElonMusk wrote: post #8

I did a fair amount of technical analysis trying to learn day trading a few years ago. I've also bought and sold stocks based on fundamentals, trends or hunches. I lost money and I made money. The best returns I had were from buying stocks in 2008/2009 during the crash (duh) and holding. My approach now for long term investing is to auto invest monthly into 5-6 index funds w low fees, aka Bogelheads. Simple, low stre…

> Also, set aside a nice chunk of cash to invest during the next crash. Do you have any evidence this is actually recommended? If I leave $100k on the sidelines for 5 years and magically invest at the exact bottom of a 50% crash and double my money when it rebounds, how is that any different than having invested those $100k in the first place? At a 10-15% return, that’s basically the same returns (we can play with th…

I have zero evidence that it's recommended or out performs your scenario. I do have one data point of it working well for me, so I'm planning on doing it again.

Re: Ask HN: How to use technical analysis for long term investing?

#12

Post by kpr21 »

nmz91 wrote: post #3

I buy at any price as long as it is below what I calculated as fair price. However, I wait for it to bottom out if the trend is in the downward direction. P.S. I have never regretted that I've missed out on 1% return as long as the return is in my range of 18+%

Thanks. I think fair price is subjective. Gone were the days stocks had reasonable valuations.

Re: Ask HN: How to use technical analysis for long term investing?

#13

Post by kpr21 »

larrykubin wrote: post #2

I've studied many of these indicators. Honestly, my favorite is to look at the new 52 week high list rather than trying to time reversals.

Thanks. Thats interesting. I have seen a lot of people follow this strategy. The problem is, what if the new high is the top?

Re: Ask HN: How to use technical analysis for long term investing?

#15

Post by kpr21 »

YuriNiyazov wrote: post #5

Having gone down a similar path about a decade ago, let me short circuit this for you. The consensus seems to be that technical analysis doesn't work. However, we don't have to commit to that very categorical statement, and we can work within a much weaker framework: Even if various aspects of technical analysis could work in theory, they are too hard to get right for a single trader who is trying to wrangle it alone…

Thanks for the input. Nope. I never really liked options etc

Re: Ask HN: How to use technical analysis for long term investing?

#16

Post by kpr21 »

slapslash wrote: post #9

Oh yeah,trying this since at least a decade now. Western indicators,eastern indicators and my own reprensentation… brute force, kind of all machine learning algorithms, genetical algo… it‘s a mess and i might be some kind of obsessed by it. By now,i‘m nearly convinced,that it‘s not possible to predict Stocks for normal persons /with known indicators. BUT at least i got a quite good programmer by trying it aaand… who…

Thanks. You are right. It is quite complicated.

Re: Ask HN: How to use technical analysis for long term investing?

#17

Post by kpr21 »

fakeElonMusk wrote: post #8

I did a fair amount of technical analysis trying to learn day trading a few years ago. I've also bought and sold stocks based on fundamentals, trends or hunches. I lost money and I made money. The best returns I had were from buying stocks in 2008/2009 during the crash (duh) and holding. My approach now for long term investing is to auto invest monthly into 5-6 index funds w low fees, aka Bogelheads. Simple, low stre…

Thanks for the input

Re: Ask HN: How to use technical analysis for long term investing?

#18

Post by kpr21 »

kjellsbells wrote: post #6

You may not want to hear this, but technical analysis of /price data/ is a fools errand for a number of reasons. There are the folks with PhDs who dream in C++ about martingales but even they dont consistently beat the index. More fundamentally, as a retail investor, you cant get better arbitrage than the pros can since they know 10x more than you do (I dont believe that the protections and firewalls between banking…

Thanks. Very well said. I agree with you. I am actually passionate about non price data like cash flows, balance sheet, income statement, PE, EV/EBIDTA, etc. But I have seen a lot of long term fundamental based investors talking about using technical analysis (price data) to get a better entry point. In that context, I wanted to try technical analysis. To be honest, I dont like technical analysis. Find it very boring.

Re: Ask HN: How to use technical analysis for long term investing?

#19

Post by Cicero22 »

deanmoriarty wrote: post #10
fakeElonMusk wrote: post #8

I did a fair amount of technical analysis trying to learn day trading a few years ago. I've also bought and sold stocks based on fundamentals, trends or hunches. I lost money and I made money. The best returns I had were from buying stocks in 2008/2009 during the crash (duh) and holding. My approach now for long term investing is to auto invest monthly into 5-6 index funds w low fees, aka Bogelheads. Simple, low stre…

> Also, set aside a nice chunk of cash to invest during the next crash. Do you have any evidence this is actually recommended? If I leave $100k on the sidelines for 5 years and magically invest at the exact bottom of a 50% crash and double my money when it rebounds, how is that any different than having invested those $100k in the first place? At a 10-15% return, that’s basically the same returns (we can play with th…

My understanding is that time in the market beats timing the market.

somewhat relevant video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_aOERmUWdA

His videos generally are high quality and offer good advice, although some are tilted towards a Canadian point of view in terms of taxes.

Re: Ask HN: How to use technical analysis for long term investing?

#20

Post by asr21 »

Indian here, so I won't know if this works on NASDAQ or US stock market in general. Also, I have traded only a short time in bear market. Most of my trading is in Bull Market. So take my input with a truck load of salt .

The thing worked for me, is the simple concept of Support and Resistance and Dow theory ( Higher high, Higher low all that shit.) . So let's say there is a certain point or a range after which , it usually bounces back . That's the support and I would buy at that range.

One more logic here was, let's say a stock is trading at 50. It's support is at 48. I can afford to lose 100$ in this trade. So I would get 50 shares at 50$. If it goes below 48. I will take my loss of 100$ . Exit that position. It's more about calculated gambling

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