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Krugman on BitCoin

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com

61–70 of 306 posts

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between some goods -- electronics -- getting cheaper every year and all goods getting cheaper every year. Deflation isn't necessarily a problem; but runaway deflation is, and the structure of bitcoin makes deflation a self-perpetuating cycle.

"There's a difference between some goods -- electronics -- getting cheaper every year and all goods getting cheaper every year." Which is what exactly? People buy electronics even though they get cheaper every year but they wouldn't buy Xs if they got cheaper every year? Can you give me an example of some Xs?

If houses got cheaper every year, very few people would want to buy them, and people stuck with mortgages would have a powerful incentive to walk away from them. If cars got cheaper every year, then people would put off buying new cars for longer. If gold got cheaper every year, then a lot of gold coins would be dumped on the market.

If everything got cheaper every year, then people with money in the bank (or under the mattress) have an incentive to reduce how much money they spend, in general. This would lead to factories reducing their production and laying off employees, giving the remaining employees an even more powerful incentive to hang onto their savings.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#62
He couldn't care less about Bitcoin. What he does care about though is the chatter amongst non-Keynesian economists about the need for an objective currency, i.e., a gold standard - a force that would utterly devastate his precious welfare state. Accordingly, an opportunity to ridicule Bitcoin is a perfect segue to take sneaky, conniving, collectivist jabs at gold.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#63
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure Krugman's reputation is as reputable as you suggest. Some might even call him a "froth-mouthed crackpot hurling ad-hominems". Not me of course, I wouldn't want to hurl ad-hominems in place of a real argument. Better to appeal to authority.

> I'm not sure Krugman's reputation is as reputable as you suggest I know that winning the Nobel Prize is not the end of the world and that there are often political motives behind these prizes (Obama anyone?), but between believing a guy who won a Nobel Prize in economics vs. believing a random guy on HN with no real argument, the choice is easy (to me at least). To the best of my knowledge, Krugman rarely (if ever)…

In economics people win for their work, not their winning personality. Krugman won for "his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity" - http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2...

Hayek also won the Nobel Prize and would undoubtedly disagree with almost everything Krugman believes.

He won for "pioneering work in the theory of money and economic fluctuations and for their penetrating analysis of the interdependence of economic, social and institutional phenomena" - http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1...

I don't believe the gold standard is a good for our mandated monetary system, but I also don't believe forced currency monopolies and gold confiscation should exist in a "free" country - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#64
post #27

One thing that might be interesting to consider is wealth distribution over population growth. Thought experiment: Say our money supply is fixed (10 million dollars), and there are 1 million people in our economy. Everyone averages out to holding about 10 dollars. Everyone goes on a massive baby-making spree, and in 10 years, there are still 10 million dollars, but 2 million people in the economy. Average wealth is $…

I'd argue that the supply of money should keep pace with production, not population growth. Though you'd expect those two to be strongly correlated.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#65
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You basically interpreted this backwards. When Krugman says that the bitcoin economy has experienced deflation, he means that a bitcoin is worth more now than it was in the past. The graph on bitcoinmarket certainly shows this. If I wanted to buy a motorcycle in bitcoins in 2010 I would have needed several thousand. Now I only need a few hundred. Which means that I would have been stupid to spend my bitcoins last yea…

>And most economic theory says that the more people spend money the healthier the economy becomes Doesn't that seem like a bizarre theory since the economy is in shambles and debt-financed spending seems to be getting higher and higher (consumer/credit card debt, etc.) I thought people were supposed to be encouraged to save, pensions, 401k and Roth IRAs, etc. Is overall economic health inversely related to individual…

Money is a wealth transfer medium. If you're familiar with physics, think of exchange particles associated with forces. In biology, it's similar to blood. I'm not sure a transportation analog works but it might (I need to think about that).

Money works when it is exchanged for goods and services.

When money stops moving, the economy "stops". There isn't any exchange going on (or there's far less than before). Economic activity slows, employment slows, etc.

Credit and leverage, done right, allow more work from a given initial money supply (technically, credit increases the money supply), but this is predicated on the borrower repaying the initial investment. Done wrong, credit is extended for activities which don't allow repayment, and not only can't the the interest be paid, but the initial principle is lost -- and the money supply contracts.

Money is not wealth (value imbued in goods/services), but it can be (with a stable currency) a measure of wealth.

If the amount of money in circulation is decreasing (or the real wealth of an economy is increasing relative to a fixed money supply, say, with a gold/silver standard), then the value of a given denomination of coinage increases. Hoarding coin/currency/money becomes a wealth-accruing activity, while facilitating economic activity (by spending money) largely loses wealth. Hence the problem with a highly deflationary currency.

Economic theory says you want a currency whose value tends to be stable, or slightly inflationary, with time, in order to encourage spending rather than saving.

Note that none of this addresses the underlying physical economy, resource limitations/depletion, or other criticisms of traditional orthodox economics (most of which are highly valid -- we live on a planet of limited resources and good planets are both hard to find and the commute is a real drag).

Regarding your comments on savings: yes, there is a well-known "savings paradox" where individual incentives to save are opposed to the overall economic goals of growth. This is one of many such individual/group paradoxes, and is one of the principle reasons for laws (legal, moral, or otherwise). The 1971 book The Logic of Collective Action by Mancur Olson is one of the better illuminations of the concept: http://economics.about.com/cs/macroeconomics/a/logic_of_acti...

There are numerous other conflicts and paradoxes within economic theory and reality. Free markets, where they exist, work quite well. They're rather more rare, I'm coming to believe, than is frequently thought, and many forces work to limit them (political, plutocratic, monopolistic, and others).

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more people spend money that they have . Debt-financed spending means that future money is not going toward goods and services. Investment is a good thing to have, too: GDP = Consumption + Gross Investment + Government Spending + Trade Surplus/Deficit Paying back of credit card debt (at least principal) doesn't fall into this equation. The interest falls into the Consumption category (paying for a service). That'…

> Debt-financed spending means that future money is not going towards goods and services. This is a major hole in my current understanding of economic theory. My gut reaction tells me that being in debt should be bad but if you think about it, it's really a good place to be. If the general monetary supply is inflationary, then money you owe is gradually losing value. Which is an excellent proposal for those in debt:…

I can only borrow money (or sell stock in my company) if someone else is willing to save (or invest). A healthy economy requires a balance between borrowers and savers.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#67
post #33

"What we want from a monetary system isn’t to make people holding money rich; we want it to facilitate transactions and make the economy as a whole rich. And that’s not at all what is happening in Bitcoin." Spot friggin' on, Mr. Krugman. Bitcoin's supply limiting design has added a psychological dimension that encourages collecting. Perhaps when Bitcoin reaches supply maturity the value will stabilize but for now its…

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Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#68
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure Krugman's reputation is as reputable as you suggest. Some might even call him a "froth-mouthed crackpot hurling ad-hominems". Not me of course, I wouldn't want to hurl ad-hominems in place of a real argument. Better to appeal to authority.

I think David Frum put it best [1]: > Imagine, if you will, someone who read only the Wall Street Journal editorial page between 2000 and 2011, and someone in the same period who read only the collected columns of Paul Krugman. Which reader would have been better informed about the realities of the current economic crisis? [1] http://www.frumforum.com/were-our-enemies-right

Using that hypothetical, you'd either think George W. Bush was the next coming of Jesus or Hitler. There was very little unbiased economic information in either opinion section. On his blog, Krugman is much less biased and inflammatory (perhaps because he doesn't feel the need to help sell newspapers there) and in this case, he brings up some valid points about the intentionally deflationary currency.

Re: Krugman on BitCoin

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. But, to answer your question, "Does this cause people to hold onto their money instead of buying computers, tvs, and iphones?" The answer is yes (with qualifiers). Many late adopters are late adopters because they are holding out for a cheaper price for those goods. From personal experience, I've done this very thing (waiting for prices to come down on a TV before I…

"The answer is yes (with qualifiers). Many late adopters are late adopters because they are holding out for a cheaper price for those goods. From personal experience, I've done this very thing (waiting for prices to come down on a TV before I bought it). I put that money into something with a higher return for the time being." But you could have kept waiting and prices would have kept falling. Eventually you spent yo…

People who want TVs (or who want to replace their current TVs) will buy one eventually. But if you’re in the TV-manufacturing business, there’s a big difference between a world in which the average TV gets replaced every three years and a world in which it gets replaced every four years.
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