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Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

medrxiv.org

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Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#111

Post by sudosysgen »

3maj wrote: post #108
sudosysgen wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This preprint agrees that the risk of myocarditis is significantly higher, except if you are a. A male b. Under 40 years old c. Took the Moderna vaccine So the statement that COVID has a higher risk of myocarditis is still true. The media and those people got their information from existing data. This data was correct for the original question. However it wasn't delineated by age and by vaccine, and it's only after t…

Government of Ontario (Province in Canada) published data months ago showing that young men were at higher risk from heart issues. Nobody cared and the all the local and federal news outlets refused to report on the numbers.

Link? I saw that data back then, and the number were lower than this preprint and lower than COVID, IIRC.

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#112

Post by robhunter »

sudosysgen wrote: post #93
coolso wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This paper essentially argues that the risk of myocarditis in under-40 males getting 2 shots is greater (perhaps much greater) than the risk of getting it from COVID. There have been similar studies before, but none (that I saw) broken down by age and sex like this. This is especially fascinating to me because for months I noticed that whenever I or anyone else would bring up the fear of myocarditis from the vax (w…

This preprint agrees that the risk of myocarditis is significantly higher, except if you are a. A male b. Under 40 years old c. Took the Moderna vaccine So the statement that COVID has a higher risk of myocarditis is still true. The media and those people got their information from existing data. This data was correct for the original question. However it wasn't delineated by age and by vaccine, and it's only after t…

Ontario was reporting age/sex-delineated data to this effect as early as the summer - all while the media and public health officials were advising Ontarians (including < 40 yr old males) to "take the first vaccine you're offered."

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#113

Post by Ancapistani »

sudosysgen wrote: post #48
mrhands556 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who says the vaccine prevents heart complications from infection? All the statistics I’ve seen compare mainly mortality. From a pure risk vs reward of vaccine vs no vaccine, measuring mortality seems reasonable. When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects?

So what is the mortality rate of the vaccine? Because this is the myocarditis rate, and the vast majority of cases didn't even require hospitalization. If you want to compare mortality rates, share a link. And yes, the virus prevents heart complications from infection, because it prevents symptomatic infection.

> So what is the mortality rate of the vaccine? Because this is the myocarditis rate, and the vast majority of cases didn't even require hospitalization.

No, this is the rate of hospitalization or death due to myocarditis.

> The outcomes of interest in this study were hospital admission or death from myocarditis. Myocarditis was defined as the first hospital admission in the study period or death using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes (Supplementary Table 6).

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#114

Post by robhunter »

sudosysgen wrote: post #111
3maj wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government of Ontario (Province in Canada) published data months ago showing that young men were at higher risk from heart issues. Nobody cared and the all the local and federal news outlets refused to report on the numbers.

Link? I saw that data back then, and the number were lower than this preprint and lower than COVID, IIRC.

Here's a thread from September summarizing some of the available data at the time:

https://twitter.com/KoenSwinkels/status/1443335179012038656

It includes a screenshot from this report, which is now updated through to December:

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/ep...

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#115

Post by robhunter »

sudosysgen wrote: post #64
robhunter wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk of serious COVID-19 symptoms are already at quite low levels in the < 40 male group.

Yes, and WAY higher than the risk of serious symptoms for the virus. For males 18-29 the risk of hospitalization is 0.4% compared to 0.1% for myocarditis, and most myocarditis cases do not require hospitalization. Risk of severe disease is of course much more than risk of hospitalization.

That 0.4% chance is not random though - it's heavily weighted toward 18-29 year olds with severe existing co-morbidities, extremely high BMI's, etc.

For an otherwise healthy 18-29 year old, it appears that the risks from taking the vaccine are comparable / slightly exceed the risks of getting Covid.

Your statement that most myocarditis cases do not require hospitalization is inconsistent with the public health data Ontario is releasing - it's closer to 60%+ of (confirmed) myocarditis cases that require hospitalization.

(https://twitter.com/KoenSwinkels/status/1462266769880621056/...)

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#116

Post by javagram »

ODILON_SATER wrote: post #107
sudosysgen wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This preprint agrees that the risk of myocarditis is significantly higher, except if you are a. A male b. Under 40 years old c. Took the Moderna vaccine So the statement that COVID has a higher risk of myocarditis is still true. The media and those people got their information from existing data. This data was correct for the original question. However it wasn't delineated by age and by vaccine, and it's only after t…

I don't know. I feel that many people got unfairly labelled as "anti-vaxxer" because they simply opposed to forced vaccination --not the efficacy of the vaccine itself, based on the argument that risk of death from covid was relatively very low for healthy adults and children. And given the time constrains for the vaccine production and trials, it would have been prudent to assume that the side effects associated wit…

> I don't know. I feel that many people got unfairly labelled as "anti-vaxxer" because they simply opposed to forced vaccination

Unlikely because the most of the same people chose not to get vaccinated themselves well before any mandates or requirements came into force, and were posting arguments online warning people not to get the vaccine or that it hadn't been sufficiently tested - as you yourself do in this post.

This indicates that they weren't just opposed to forced vaccination, but opposed to this vaccination in particular. It was quite rare to see someone post something along the lines of >

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#117

Post by sudosysgen »

ODILON_SATER wrote: post #107
sudosysgen wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This preprint agrees that the risk of myocarditis is significantly higher, except if you are a. A male b. Under 40 years old c. Took the Moderna vaccine So the statement that COVID has a higher risk of myocarditis is still true. The media and those people got their information from existing data. This data was correct for the original question. However it wasn't delineated by age and by vaccine, and it's only after t…

I don't know. I feel that many people got unfairly labelled as "anti-vaxxer" because they simply opposed to forced vaccination --not the efficacy of the vaccine itself, based on the argument that risk of death from covid was relatively very low for healthy adults and children. And given the time constrains for the vaccine production and trials, it would have been prudent to assume that the side effects associated wit…

People were labelled anti-vaxxers because they were opposed to forced vaccination? I can't say that this is a sentiment that's new to me.

The Israel data clearly showed that the vaccine was protective against infection in the medium term. Just not as much as originally.

>A few things to consider, the paper's calculated myocarditis risk post covid is overestimated as it is impossible to know how many people actually caught the virus. It is reasonable to assume that the actual delta (risk myocarditis post vax vs risk myocarditis post covid) is actually larger, I believe this is just the tip of the icerberg.

We actually don't know that. We see from this data that you can have myocarditis without the usual symptoms of a strong immune reaction. For all we know, there could have been a hundred thousand cases of myocarditis from COVID that didn't come with associated COVID symptoms and resolved themselves, going without any diagnosis.

Actually, we generally don't even know the real rate of myocarditis in the general population. It's relatively common that someone is admitted to the hospital for another symptom and myocarditis is diagnosed, without the patient even noticing.

As for females, for any age, there is zero statistically significant result for myocarditis included to the vaccine, at all. So for all we know, the vaccine may cause zero myocarditis in females. It's almost certain that further stratification would help.

The reason why there was not anymore stratification is because myocarditis due to the vaccine is so rare that if you do stratify it, you cannot come to any conclusion.

It's possible that there is a misestimation of the background risk. However, given that most cases of myocarditis are mild, the vast majority of myocarditis cases without a positive COVID test almost certainly went undiagnosed, so this is a fair comparison. Cases that have been diagnosed can also be misatributed to background risk, if there are no other covid symptoms and thus no covid test is administered.

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#118

Post by rsfern »

darkerside wrote: post #101
roenxi wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They might still be right; this is only a pre-print, only focused on one specific aspect of COVID and the effect size is small. But if they are wrong, the most likely explanation is they misunderstood something and were just wrong. Ironically, as is well known but bears repeating, the vocal "follow the science" types tend more to be believers in authority figures than people who care what science says. They aren't es…

> Actual scientists will usually be circumspect until the evidence is overwhelming. It feels so good to read that. I hope that is actually the case, and all the hysteria we're seeing these days is media overamplification.

I think it’s generally true. Check out the discussion sections of the primary sources, they are usually pretty forthcoming about the limitations of the data and methodology.

This in general has been what has kept my uncertainty factor high on the question of omicron’s virulence, while you can find plenty of news headlines misrepresenting the research (on both sides of the issue).

(I’m a scientist, but my field is not bio- or medicine-adjacent)

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#119

Post by sudosysgen »

robhunter wrote: post #114
sudosysgen wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Link? I saw that data back then, and the number were lower than this preprint and lower than COVID, IIRC.

Here's a thread from September summarizing some of the available data at the time: https://twitter.com/KoenSwinkels/status/1443335179012038656 It includes a screenshot from this report, which is now updated through to December: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/ep...

Right, so the rate is 200 cases per million vaccinations. The COVID rates are 450 cases per million vaccination.

So I did remember correctly, and it was indeed lower than infection, presumably because it wasn't delineated by vaccine, also IIRC Moderna is contra-indicated for young men in Ontario.

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#120

Post by javagram »

jMyles wrote: post #54
unityByFreedom wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is r/lockdownskepticism also skeptical of vaccination? And do you think covid is worse than or same as the flu?

> Is r/lockdownskepticism also skeptical of vaccination? It's a very heterogenous sub, but I don't think you'll find the kind of anti-vax thinking that suggests that, eg, childhood vaccination is unhelpful to a society, if that's what you're asking. If you are asking more strictly about sentiment toward the currently available SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, I think that by and large we think they're a marvel of engineering, bu…

> Lockdowns necessarily cause stratification by socioeconomic status rather than by risk. Even in an 'effective' lockdown, we still see spread among the "essential workers" who keep society going, and in their households, which are disproportionately likely to be multigen.

How do you explain countries like Vietnam, China, Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, where Covid was eliminated from their societies via lockdown (and border control to prevent re-introduction) before the Delta variant spread? It's true that only China and Taiwan have retained Covid-Zero status in the face of Delta, but it seems like the success of lockdowns turns upon characteristics of the pathogen including its population mortality (the more deadly the virus, the more likely the population will support and assist in extreme measures to control and eliminate it within national borders).

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