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Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

medrxiv.org

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Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#41

Post by mrhands556 »

sudosysgen wrote: post #35
mrhands556 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CDC best guess mortality risk for his age group is 500/1000000 if he gets an infection. I would say risk probably not outweighing the benefit if it doesn’t prevent infection outright. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

That is a laughable analysis. You are comparing the risk of death to the risk of a serious side effect. Why not compare apples to apples and compare the risk of heart complications requiring hospitalization (a fraction of the myocraditis and pericarditis cases caused by the vaccine) to the hospitalization rate of infection? You can normalize that by the 75% efficacy against Omicron if you want.

Who says the vaccine prevents heart complications from infection? All the statistics I’ve seen compare mainly mortality. From a pure risk vs reward of vaccine vs no vaccine, measuring mortality seems reasonable. When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects?

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#42

Post by kuhewa »

TehShrike wrote: post #29
kuhewa wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, not unless Pfizer was a typo and you meant Moderna.

After only looking at the charts at the end of the PDF, they seem to indicate that the 3rd dose (booster) of the Pfizer vaccine raises your myocarditis risk about as much as the 2nd dose of Moderna's.

There are large CIs around the mean increase with Pfizer booster, but the mean doesn't fall into the confidence interval for second dose Moderna. Does not appear to be tracking as commensurate.

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#43

Post by yonaguska »

sudosysgen wrote: post #37
mrhands556 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IFR for males under 40 is 500/1000000 or .05% if they’re infected. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

That's a horribly misleading comparison. Compare the risk of illness with severity similar to heart complications, or compare death rates. Don't compare one to the other. The majority of myocarditis cases due to the vaccine don't even require hospitalization.

Source? One friend with this exact issue was never hospitalized, was told that it couldn't possibly be due the vaccine, but ended up with several visits to a cardiologist and now had to deal with the long term effects. So no- there was no hospitalization. Technically. And they will never show up in any data set either. Because we aren't even tracking this stuff correctly in the USA.

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#44

Post by kuhewa »

mrhands556 wrote: post #41
sudosysgen wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a laughable analysis. You are comparing the risk of death to the risk of a serious side effect. Why not compare apples to apples and compare the risk of heart complications requiring hospitalization (a fraction of the myocraditis and pericarditis cases caused by the vaccine) to the hospitalization rate of infection? You can normalize that by the 75% efficacy against Omicron if you want.

Who says the vaccine prevents heart complications from infection? All the statistics I’ve seen compare mainly mortality. From a pure risk vs reward of vaccine vs no vaccine, measuring mortality seems reasonable. When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects?

You are asking when in history we vaccinated to prevent infectious disease induced morbidity?

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#45

Post by TehShrike »

sudosysgen wrote: post #39
TehShrike wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After only looking at the charts at the end of the PDF, they seem to indicate that the 3rd dose (booster) of the Pfizer vaccine raises your myocarditis risk about as much as the 2nd dose of Moderna's.

No. 3rd dose Pfizer is not statistically significantly worse than infection for myocarditis.

Am I missing something obvious?

Am I reading too much from the error bars in the Incidence Rate Ratio charts? Or did I misinterpret the charts some other way?

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#46

Post by yonaguska »

unityByFreedom wrote: post #28
jMyles wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This guy made a graph of their data, which makes it a little more clear: As another commenter as has pointed out, the graph in question in included in the PDF version of this preprint (which you can see here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.02.21267156v... ). I want to add: "this guy" is Vinay Prasad, a professor of oncology at UCSF and an incredibly prescient thinker through the COVID-19 pandemic,…

Is r/lockdownskepticism also skeptical of vaccination? And do you think covid is worse than or same as the flu?

There is a definite overlap in people skeptical of lockdowns and the vaccines, but the sub tries to steer clear of vaccine skepticism due to it being technically off topic, and something that would get the sub nuked.

Not that you asked me- I would classify it as "different" than the flu, that it affects different individuals differently, and that the original variant was definitely something more scary than the flu. Especially due to the novelty of the spike protein. Now- I view omicron as about as dangerous as the flu for a much smaller subset of people than the flu is dangerous for. Especially when you account for age and comorbidities. The flu kills children, while covid generally does not.

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#47

Post by mrhands556 »

kuhewa wrote: post #44
mrhands556 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who says the vaccine prevents heart complications from infection? All the statistics I’ve seen compare mainly mortality. From a pure risk vs reward of vaccine vs no vaccine, measuring mortality seems reasonable. When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects?

You are asking when in history we vaccinated to prevent infectious disease induced morbidity?

When have we vaccinated to prevent infectious disease induced side effects excluding morbidity.

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#48

Post by sudosysgen »

mrhands556 wrote: post #41
sudosysgen wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a laughable analysis. You are comparing the risk of death to the risk of a serious side effect. Why not compare apples to apples and compare the risk of heart complications requiring hospitalization (a fraction of the myocraditis and pericarditis cases caused by the vaccine) to the hospitalization rate of infection? You can normalize that by the 75% efficacy against Omicron if you want.

Who says the vaccine prevents heart complications from infection? All the statistics I’ve seen compare mainly mortality. From a pure risk vs reward of vaccine vs no vaccine, measuring mortality seems reasonable. When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects?

So what is the mortality rate of the vaccine? Because this is the myocarditis rate, and the vast majority of cases didn't even require hospitalization. If you want to compare mortality rates, share a link.

And yes, the virus prevents heart complications from infection, because it prevents symptomatic infection.

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#49

Post by chakspak »

civilized wrote: post #20

A bit off-topic but why does PDF export sometimes produce these incredibly, seemingly gratuitously fugly font renderings? The size and spacing of the letters seems to be random. Like, here's a giant d in the middle of a word for no reason.

PDF rendering is the bane of my existence. I've found it stunningly difficult to generate an acceptable output from a source format like Markdown, and the process usually requires massive dependencies and fiddly configuration to get something close to what you want. Don't even try to produce numbered headings or a cover page unless you're willing to write the whole thing in LaTeX from start to finish, but who knows if you'll ever get the table to appear in the right spot on the page. :D

Re: Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]

#50

Post by TehShrike »

kuhewa wrote: post #42
TehShrike wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After only looking at the charts at the end of the PDF, they seem to indicate that the 3rd dose (booster) of the Pfizer vaccine raises your myocarditis risk about as much as the 2nd dose of Moderna's.

There are large CIs around the mean increase with Pfizer booster, but the mean doesn't fall into the confidence interval for second dose Moderna. Does not appear to be tracking as commensurate.

ah sure, I don't think I would have called them "commensurate" – but was I wrong to think of both rates as "elevated"?
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