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Pfizer’s Covid-19 Pill is 89% Effective in Phase 2/3 Study

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Re: Pfizer’s Covid-19 Pill is 89% Effective in Phase 2/3 Study

#241

Post by epgui »

spurgu wrote: post #230
epgui wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the behaviour changes, vaccines, masks and other public health intervention have the effect of reducing Rt, geometrically, by some factor. When Rt goes below 1 for long enough, not only do variants go away, covid goes away. When you do all kinds of halfass measures and either Rt does not go below 1, or keeps going below and above 1, then you’re giving time for the virus to mutate, and this has the effect of movin…

So what do you do when variants are still ravaging in Africa for example? Isolate the continent?

The short answer is yes, but this deserves a much longer answer than this comment.

Re: Pfizer’s Covid-19 Pill is 89% Effective in Phase 2/3 Study

#242

Post by epgui »

disambiguation wrote: post #238
epgui wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the behaviour changes, vaccines, masks and other public health intervention have the effect of reducing Rt, geometrically, by some factor. When Rt goes below 1 for long enough, not only do variants go away, covid goes away. When you do all kinds of halfass measures and either Rt does not go below 1, or keeps going below and above 1, then you’re giving time for the virus to mutate, and this has the effect of movin…

Right, I'm not disputing the math of herd immunity. What I'm getting at is that we "lost the race". Delta emerged from India in Dec 2020 before vaccines became publicly available. Maybe Rt of the original strain would have been pushed below 1, but the Rt of delta among the vaccinated is way above 1. Omicron is even worse w.r.t immune escape. We know there are many viruses we can manage with mass vaccination and herd…

Your assumption that we would need to take measures in excess of the countries with the strictest measures in order to have eradicated SARS-CoV-2 is probably wrong, and is definitely not what I would think.

I would take New Zealand, Greenland, Taiwan and even China as models of most of what needed to be done. None of them did things perfectly, but they all had some of the right ideas.

Re: Pfizer’s Covid-19 Pill is 89% Effective in Phase 2/3 Study

#243

Post by javagram »

cltby wrote: post #78
javagram wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, political affiliation is the strongest demographic predictor for Covid-19 vaccine refusal. Check the actual stats. Unfortunately a lot of GOP leaning media sources including top rated Fox News opinion hosts have been spreading FUD about the vaccine for a year. People listen to their trusted news hosts and media sources…

> Check the actual stats 60 % of Republicans have received at least one dose [1], but only 51 % of blacks have done the same [2]. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/17/counties-vot... [2] https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-...

You are comparing different populations.

* “ 60% of Republican adults”

* “58% percent of White people had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, which was close to the rate for Hispanic people (56%) but higher than the rate for Black people (51%)“

The problem becomes obvious if you compare it now. How could the Republican % be higher than the white, Hispanic, or black %? Not because republicans are more likely than democrats or neutrals to get the vaccine - it’s because you’ve compared total population (including children who aren’t eligible or only became eligible in the last month or two) to adult population.

Now look at stats that actually compare like for like and you can see GOP members are much less open to vaccination than Black Americans. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/28/republica...

Re: Pfizer’s Covid-19 Pill is 89% Effective in Phase 2/3 Study

#244

Post by disambiguation »

epgui wrote: post #242
disambiguation wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, I'm not disputing the math of herd immunity. What I'm getting at is that we "lost the race". Delta emerged from India in Dec 2020 before vaccines became publicly available. Maybe Rt of the original strain would have been pushed below 1, but the Rt of delta among the vaccinated is way above 1. Omicron is even worse w.r.t immune escape. We know there are many viruses we can manage with mass vaccination and herd…

Your assumption that we would need to take measures in excess of the countries with the strictest measures in order to have eradicated SARS-CoV-2 is probably wrong, and is definitely not what I would think. I would take New Zealand, Greenland, Taiwan and even China as models of most of what needed to be done. None of them did things perfectly, but they all had some of the right ideas.

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