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As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

fundamentalinvestor.substack.com

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Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#191
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard this argument, but there's no utility value whatsoever to that power, or the energy consumed to run the hashes (in that the energy and hashing power is spent on the mining task and therefore unavailable for other uses). The argument is essentially that the computing and hashing power has intrinsic value for other use cases it could be reapplied to if not doing this. It could, but that value would accrue to…

> but there's no utility value whatsoever to that power If you think about it, what you actually mean is that you don't recognise the utility, not that there isn't utility there. If we do a classic comparison with gold, pretty much nobody gets any utility out of the gold, and yet a tonne of gold still has very high intrinsic value because it has just enough utility to some rare people. > It could, but that value woul…

This is not the case.

I wasn’t comparing anything to gold (or whatever other asset). The energy expended is cited as a reason for the value of the token, but the utility of that energy, even if it were a near infinite amount, is still zero, because it’s already been expended. It’s a fully sunk cost.

The magic that people try to conjure by saying the cost of mining means it’s valuable is provably not true. That energy isn’t stored as value in the token, it’s gone.

To use your analogy - I’m not saying the value accrues to the miner of the coal/gold/whatever. It accrues to the owner. The asset in this case is not the token, it’s the energy.

The re-deployment of that energy to other use cases is not a transaction between the purchaser of the energy and the owner of the token, it’s a transaction between the purchaser and the energy company. In dollars.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#192
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it does not. Immutable for use doesn't mean it cannot change for example if the title of your house is on the blockchain when you sell it a new immutable transaction referencing your original immutable transaction would be created. Same as rolling out a new version of log4j

So you're saying we need software lawyers to figure out if rolling a new transaction is safe or not? Weirdly, that seems worse than having just lawyers.

If you have the keys no lawyers needed.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#193
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember being surprised when I read that half of all of the gold we have has been mined since 1961, which really does show that basing your currency on it would have massive problems.

See also the inflationary spike of the Renaissance era, sometimes called the Spanish Price Revolution: https://voxeu.org/article/does-inflow-precious-metals-new-wo... Prices rose sixfold over 150 years, which represents a ~1% inflation rate which seems low by modern standards, but the thing about inflation is that expectations matter far more than the absolute rate, and European society had ~0% inflation assumptions…

Which itself followed the Great Bullion Famine, where there was too little gold and silver available:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Bullion_Famine

It's also amusing that silver was far more critical than gold historically.

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