Super exiting. * JWST costs ~$10B, about the same as Large Hadron Collider or aircraft carrier. * JWST has 344 single-point-of-failures (SPOF), 80% of them related to deployment. * No ability for repair. JWST goes to orbit the Sun 1.5 million kilometers away from the Earth, almost 4 times the distance between Earth and Moon. * Ariane 5 launch failure rate is 0.045 --- assuming 0.045 launch failure probability, and 0.…
> 0.0001 failure probability for each SPOF Why did you choose this value for the assumption? Is that standard or a publicized detail?
Ariane launch failure probability dominates if you add zeros.
0.00001 -> 4.8%
0.000001 -> 4.5%