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Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

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Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#421
post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends. The ones sold in Poland (and I guess Germany as the climate is similar) are often rated to work from -25C up.

Heat pumps are also loud.

Just as fossil fuel boilers are.

That's why you install them in the basement. If you can.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#422
post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends. The ones sold in Poland (and I guess Germany as the climate is similar) are often rated to work from -25C up.

Heat pumps are also loud.

They really aren't. The outdoor units are comparable to air conditioners (60 db). I can't hear mine through the walls.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is not obvious that nuclear energy can be a widespread, long term alternative for most of the world economies. This problem is also known as nuclear proliferation and, as far as I know, is known to people building nuclear reactors. Small nuclear reactors takes them in account: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor#Nuclear_... > ; nuclear smuggling is also monitored: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/…

Thanks for the answer ! I'll continue the debate because I think it's worth exploring. The problem is effectively nuclear proliferation. And in my opinion the two links you provided are embryos of solution. In the future, it will be legitimate for any medium size city in a developping country to have its own nuclear reactor. At that point the whole procurement process becomes a matter of national security for every n…

> In the future, it will be legitimate for any medium size city in a developping country to have its own nuclear reactor. At that point the whole procurement process becomes a matter of national security for every neighboring country. Like who is deciding which design is better ? Who gets to pick the winning offer ?

I definitely agree that's a core question. I believe we are in an instance of public policies and proper evaluation of proposals.

IMHO, deciding if a design is better is not the hardest part, but getting the actual design implemented and not something else is complicated.

In France, there is an organization called ASN — Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire, a strong independent (theorically) organization which is here to ensure nuclear matters are handled with almost absolute safety. As I see, France has been running nuclear more or less fine, of course, there were some hiccups (and there are still some, arguably, nowadays, it is complicated to attribute them to ASN, politics did not help a lot).

Regulation bodies seem to be working, so we are reducing this problem to protecting these regulation bodies and ensuring they are not broken, which is a hard problem, that, we share with many other issues we are tackling (e.g. competition).

Now, I see an even worse concern to "who gets to pick the winning offer ?" related to the previous question. Decision makers can have a bad habit to select solutions which are made by market leaders, e.g. tech guys buys some IBM because no one gets fired for buying some IBM. Therefore, selecting winning offers has to be done with more than paperwork and financial health: orgs like ASN has to take an example, a demo reactor, check it, try it, verify it, etc, etc.

Though, I am deep in speculation at the moment, there will be many more specific challenges which I cannot know about.

> For exemple let's say Germany propose a safer design to a small country with the one time refuel feature, but Turkey propose another design and the buying country has better relationship with Turkey. What standing do you have to make them pick what you deem the better design ? The only recourse is to extend the legal framework and coercition power we use for arm sales. Same regarding nuclear material smuggling.

That's a correct concern, one which would exist, as per my unpopular opinion, no matter what, we give up on nuclear or not as an energy source.

> Except those framework work at the moment because, few country have any use for nuclear material and even fewer want to make a go at it. Once it becomes business as usual to trade nuclear material, it will simply exhaust the monitoring capacity of any international framework. ( At least that's my opinion )

I am not sure to what extent the dynamics of international framework can be scaled up, but that is also a right concern to have.

I would say that starting with very strict measures and trying to uphold them might be a start, the objective is to make it obvious that trading nuclear material must be done with the utmost care and no money can be saved up in that concern. It might help to keep the monitoring capacity to be enough.

In the case where we have no monitoring capacity left, I would argue this is the responsibility of everyone (read: citizens and politics) to reinforce these, as we are all gaining from that, otherwise, there is an unknown risk to run into unforeseen consequences.

Thankfully, this kind of responsibility is also here when elections can put dangerous people in office. :-) We should be able to exercise it better and more, though, it is no silver bullet.

> The question is who the we is ? Energy plant maintenance is closer to server farm maintenance than software building. To twist your metaphor, if many countries were to handle the data infrastructure their economy depend on, they would collapse. That's the crux of the issue, and one of the subliminal teaching the public got from Fukushima. If Japan, the country of the famed six sigma, made a serie of decisions that led to an accident, chances are it's bound to happen to most other (developping ) countries, given long enough time. And I am intentionally not delving into the specifics of those decisions.

I would argue that the case of Fukushima is particularly special, so specifics would be needed, but I will try nevertheless without delving into it.

Nuclear plants require more than just maintenance, they also require dismantlement, construction, etc. The fact you require humans to perform these operations, collect samples, etc. is quite outdated, and we can build software and technology (read: use dumb robots that go through a plant and monitor some metrics, come back to a lab and upload their files).

What is annoying is that each step is hard and bothersome, so we try to extend the lifetime of our plants, making maintenance harder, etc.

Server farm maintenance is easier at some FANG companies (and more) because they can rely on technology / robotics to alleviate bothersome tasks. This can rely on stupid machines, but, sometimes, on some non-trivial software.

Therefore, I claim that server farm maintenance up to a scale require some software building.

Now, sure, countries do not have the ability to handle the data infrastructure of their economy. Nevertheless, this is a challenge that many countries (including France) will have to partially tackle, the reason for that being: data sovereignty, at least, for citizen data (health, etc.). France already failed multiple times, is that reason to stop trying?

With this in mind, we can devise a strategy where we strengthen our technology infrastructure aiming for a sophistication level of FANG companies, with the funding of public bodies, while thinking about how to make safer, sounder nuclear plants and letting experts in international matters handle the negotiations with the neighbors.

Where we := society, precisely, everyone plays a part: (public|private) research, software companies, government, "interested" citizens (through Open Data for example).

> With these two sides of the issue in mind, it feels unreasonnable that so many commenters on the web at large are rooting for Germany to fail in the nuclear free direction.

Of course ; I believe this is true in general BTW: no one should wish for a country to fail because they made apparently "bad" decisions, truth is: things are always more complicated and harder.

Though, I can get the feeling of these commenters, looking at Europe energy landscape, reading reports from electricity public bodies, it is frustrating.

But I would rather use this energy (no pun intended) to see how we can move forward taking in account these decisions, rather than wasting time on wishing fellow humans to suffer from electricity issues.

> I just wanted to add that I commend you for that (blunt) sentence and it really should be part of the standard issues discussed when talking about nuclear.

:)

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#424
post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. All electric heating should be replaced by GPUs. If you need to heat up a room with electricity, at least do some proof of work along the way.

GPUs are just resistive heating with extra steps, COP 1. Heat pumps can do way better most of the time.

"Heat pumps can do way better most of the time."

Sure, but they are so rare at present thay in my entire life I have not even seen one.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric heating is extremely uncommon in Germany (like 1-2 % of households use it).

Paying 41c/kWh for ökostrom / 100% renewable energy here, and doing some mining with two 150W Radeon 6000 GPUs to keep this computer room warm goes a long way to making it cost effective.

Your 100% renewable energy mentioning sounds like you believe this and use it as an excuse to make it okay.

Ignore my comment though if you would normally heat by electricity but you use an umlaut so i assume you are a german as well.

Just a few days/weeks ago we had an extreme price hike due to high demand. High demand should only come from consuming energy in a usefull way. Mining your shitcoins for nothing is not helping at all.

You still consume energy which wouldn't need to be consumed as we do have other and much more energy friendlih systems for transaction security.

You are basically an american who drives the biggest pickup truck available and using oekofuel and state its now okay to do this.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#426
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One important thing to notice is that uranium is a finite non-renewable resource. The Red Book says there are about 3.3 million tons that are extractable for a price of 130 USD/ton. In 2017 the total uranium production was 60.000 tons. Thats about 55 years of uranium left at the current production rate. The Red Book assumes there are another 2.1 million tons likely to exist from geological data, but not found yet and…

> One important thing to notice is that uranium is a finite non-renewable resource. One important thing to notice is that place on earth to put wind turbines and solar panels is limited. Now imagine that electricity needs greatly increased ... At the end of the day, everything is finite

Space is not at all an issue currently.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#427
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Germany intends to take all coal-fired generation offline by 2038 Good if they actually mean it maybe? > leading to a likely increase in renewable-power assets in the long term... Yet in the short term, coal is helping to bridge the supply gap. This just seems asinine. But what do I know... Is there something impassably / chronically dangerous about nuclear power or is it just public fear that pushes us away from i…

For me it's not an engineering problem but a human one. Since the waste from a single power plant during one year of operation is enough to kill hundreds of millions of people we have to ensure no madmen get their hands on the waste for thousands of years after we have spent all the watt-hours the waste has produced. We're leaving that problem to hundreds of generations to come, who will get no benefit from it, just…

"waste from a single power plant during one year of operation is enough to kill hundreds of millions of people"

You know what else can kill millions of people? Pesticides, and anyone can buy them.

Bhopal disaster killed thousands of people and left 500,000 with debilitating injuries when a pesticide factory operated by Union Carbide Limited had a leak due to lack of maintenance. The CEO is wanted man in India, but has fled to the US and theybare refusing to extradite.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#428
post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's democracy. We were much closer to Chernobyl, than all the Americans promoting yesterday's easy future here. Some parts in Germany are suffering the fallout still, when mushrooms and wild game make the Geiger counters beep in the news. Germany is extremely population dense and nobody wants to live next to radioactive waste. Especially in rich Bavaria were all the AKWs have been build (and where they had suitable…

> nobody wants to live next to radioactive waste. It seems irrational as sealed high profile waste doesn't leak any radiations beyond the natural ambiant radioactive noise. The problem may arise in a very long time due to water molecules progressively entering and exiting the enclosure during thousands of years. One could live and sleep every night in a nuclear waste storage building and nothing will happen to them.…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serenity_Prayer

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd imagine that somewhere there is always enough wind and sun in Europe. * wind: wind power production scales with the cube of the wind speed [1], so actual production only occurs about 25% of the time [2]. Also huge areas produce at the same time: the size of the average depression [3] can often be as large as the continent. * sun: solar panels don't produce at night. I don't think I need to source that claim. Cl…

Cloud is not really such a problematic factor: https://scijinks.gov/solar-energy-and-clouds/ And the nice thing about nights is that they are quite predictable. So not a very difficult problem to solve. Tesla power wall (I'd argue overpriced...): $10k [1] Cost of an average nuclear plant today: $20bn [2] (+operating costs) So you could buy and install 2Mio powerwalls for thr price of one nuclear plant. How many power…

What is the lifetime of a Tesla power wall? Do we even know?

New nuclear reactors are expected to run for 60-100 years.

This is one of the neglected parameters of such calculations. CAPEX for nuclear is high, but the resulting structure is long-lived, much more so than solar panels (25-30 years) or wind turbines (20 years).

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#430
post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Numbers from 1 hour ago... From the UK, and assuming UK climate for COP figures. ~True with both retail capped prices, and wholesale market prices. There are still people in the UK installing heat pumps. Either they have a very rose tinted view of the future direction of electricity prices Vs gas, a rose tinted view of future government taxes/incentives, a rose tinted view of the environmental benefits (eg. By lookin…

Can you expand on the aggregate CO2 vs marginal CO2 part ? I’m looking into installing a ground heat pump in a new house (coupled with solar panels) mostly for environmental reasons and all the critics I’ve read so far were about the costs.

If you turn on a light and use some extra electricity, some power station somewhere will need to increase power output to provide for you.

It's the CO2 production of that extra generation, known as marginal generation, you should care about, not the nationwide average.

Most of the time, in most of the world, that extra generation is combined cycle gas turbines at ~50% efficiency.

For most people, the only time a new use of electricity is eco-friendly is when all the energy in a country is already supplied by wind/solar/hydro, and therefore a newly switched on thing also gets supplied by wind/solar/hydro.

Obviously the decision to installation a heat pump depends on the marginal generation in 15 years when you are still using that heat pump. That's very hard to predict.

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