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Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

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Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#131

Post by arnaudsm »

fsh wrote: post #36

I am afraid this thread is going to be heavy on strongly held opinions and very light on facts and figures. In a futile attempt to compensate, here is the history of gross electricity production in Germany [1]. And here is the electricity import/export statistics [2]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Energymi... [2] https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Infografiken/Energie/stroma...

These graphs are misleading. Intermittent and non-pilotable sources are a nightmare during shortages. Which is the biggest threat Germany faces right now.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#132

Post by com2kid »

polote wrote: post #124
octodog wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you reach that conclusion?

You can't decide when the wind blow and when the sun shines. And you can't either decide when people turn on their washing machine. So it is obvious there is a problem

> And you can't either decide when people turn on their washing machine.

Not completely, but you can make electricity almost free at certain times of day to encourage shifting usage.

Although there is a natural limit to this, since people have to be home to do laundry!

(Also electric driers are the real culprit, they use an obscene amount of electricity! I am not sure if Germany is big on electric dryers or not though, that is something which is very culture dependent)

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#133

Post by RaitoBezarius »

king_phil wrote: post #100
fsh wrote: post #36

I am afraid this thread is going to be heavy on strongly held opinions and very light on facts and figures. In a futile attempt to compensate, here is the history of gross electricity production in Germany [1]. And here is the electricity import/export statistics [2]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Energymi... [2] https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Infografiken/Energie/stroma...

One important thing to notice is that uranium is a finite non-renewable resource. The Red Book says there are about 3.3 million tons that are extractable for a price of 130 USD/ton. In 2017 the total uranium production was 60.000 tons. Thats about 55 years of uranium left at the current production rate. The Red Book assumes there are another 2.1 million tons likely to exist from geological data, but not found yet and…

FWIW, according to your own links.

> Uranium-235 is a finite non-renewable resource.[1][3]

> As of 2017, identified uranium reserves recoverable at US$130/kg were 6.14 million tons (compared to 5.72 million tons in 2015). At the rate of consumption in 2017, these reserves are sufficient for slightly over 130 years of supply. The identified reserves as of 2017 recoverable at US$260/kg are 7.99 million tons (compared to 7.64 million tons in 2015).[9]

They mention multiple (more or less optimistic) scenarios in respect to finiteness of U235, plus, they talk about the experiences using fast breeders and their current state with respect to market needs.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#134

Post by downrightmike »

fsh wrote: post #36

I am afraid this thread is going to be heavy on strongly held opinions and very light on facts and figures. In a futile attempt to compensate, here is the history of gross electricity production in Germany [1]. And here is the electricity import/export statistics [2]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Energymi... [2] https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Infografiken/Energie/stroma...

[1] more than half of their power comes from burning something and releasing carbon. It would be better to keep nuclear and remove carbon sources, especially any gas from russia.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#135

Post by fh973 »

uniqueuid wrote: post #34
avsteele wrote: post #26

Please correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is that nuclear doesn't ramp up/down very well either. Most nuclear plants use fission for the base load but gas or other fossil fuel generators for the variable part. Since in Germany green power in the form of solar/wind are even more variable, this makes Nuclear + Solar/Wind a bad combo. Wind and solar don't even make sense for Germany given their climate/geograp…

52% of Germany's energy production in 2021 was from renewables [1], which are productive now, don't need decades of planning and construction, have zero costs for waste and a perfectly clear risk profile for the next centuries. I don't see how wind and solar don't make sense. [1] https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2021/09/PE21_429_43312.html

Interestingly the energy consumption from renewables is at 43%, ie. considerably lower than production. I guess the difference is accounted for by the exports at peak wind/sun at the expense of other sources. Probably french nuclear plants as some other poster here noted, ie. Germany takes the cream of the top and lets others provider the expensive base load or just burns dirty lignite and coal.

[1] https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/renewables-cover-43-ger...

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#136

Post by jhgb »

barney54 wrote: post #123
cmarschner wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, to summarize, 1. Germany is a net exporter 2. Germany has reduced the production from fossil fuels from about 70% to about 37% within 30 years. 3. At the same time it cut nuclear power from around 28% to about 10. 4. It looks like without reducing nuclear power it could have replaced the equivalent amount of fossil fuels (achieving less than 20% fossil fuels by 2020). However, energy consumption has also gone up…

6. Wholesale electricity rates have increased from 50 Euros/mwh to 250 Euros/mwh over the course of the last year. This isn't about averages. It's about meeting demand, which is especially important during the winter heating season.

That's a very good argument for the need to build much more renewable capacity in Germany, since that would substitute the burning of natural gas that caused this price increase.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#138

Post by formerly_proven »

barney54 wrote: post #123
cmarschner wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, to summarize, 1. Germany is a net exporter 2. Germany has reduced the production from fossil fuels from about 70% to about 37% within 30 years. 3. At the same time it cut nuclear power from around 28% to about 10. 4. It looks like without reducing nuclear power it could have replaced the equivalent amount of fossil fuels (achieving less than 20% fossil fuels by 2020). However, energy consumption has also gone up…

6. Wholesale electricity rates have increased from 50 Euros/mwh to 250 Euros/mwh over the course of the last year. This isn't about averages. It's about meeting demand, which is especially important during the winter heating season.

Electric heating is extremely uncommon in Germany (like 1-2 % of households use it).

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#139

Post by cbmuser »

fsh wrote: post #36

I am afraid this thread is going to be heavy on strongly held opinions and very light on facts and figures. In a futile attempt to compensate, here is the history of gross electricity production in Germany [1]. And here is the electricity import/export statistics [2]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Energymi... [2] https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Infografiken/Energie/stroma...

No post body was provided.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#140

Post by arrrg »

pkdpic wrote: post #28
dvt wrote: post #4

This is insane to me. Nuclear is the best long-term option for ecologically-friendly energy generation. This is absolutely a bad move, and the coal industry has done a great job of demonizing nuclear power.

> Germany intends to take all coal-fired generation offline by 2038 Good if they actually mean it maybe? > leading to a likely increase in renewable-power assets in the long term... Yet in the short term, coal is helping to bridge the supply gap. This just seems asinine. But what do I know... Is there something impassably / chronically dangerous about nuclear power or is it just public fear that pushes us away from i…

From a political point of view re-introducing nuclear in Germany would be suicide for anyone attempting it.

It‘s just not a politically viable option. That’s the reality of it, irregardless of anything else.

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