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Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

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Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#121

The sentiment on HN on this topic has traditionally been negative, and comments that support the move get downvoted. The fear of nuclear energy is deeply rooted in Germany and cannot be simply ignored. The "Anti AKW" (anti nuclear power) movement was huge since the 80s, it predates the fear of global warming, and it was at the core of what became the Green party. And Merkel, who has a doctorate quantum chemistry, cam…

Merkel... Did not come to the conclusion that nuclear power is too risky. She wanted to do more nuclear, well aware of CO2, but Fukushima happened (killing zero victims, but hey) and she saw her policy would get her voted out office, and no potential replacement was going to do better, so she folded, in the hope that large investment in renewables would help. It didn't, because a renewable world is a 18th century wor…

This seems to be your opinion when one can read it also differently. After Fukushima she and her government (backed by the coalition partner FDP) started a risk re-assessment process that involved two commissions (the reactor security commission and an ethics commission) that resulted in the government declaration below. Hence, the assessment was not done on a whim, it was backed by several months of work by experts. Could it still be a mere power play? Possible, but unlikely - she ran the risk of alienating her own party and to be seen as a flip-flopper.

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/bulletin/regi...

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#122
post #36

I am afraid this thread is going to be heavy on strongly held opinions and very light on facts and figures. In a futile attempt to compensate, here is the history of gross electricity production in Germany [1]. And here is the electricity import/export statistics [2]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Energymi... [2] https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Infografiken/Energie/stroma...

One important thing to notice is that uranium is a finite non-renewable resource. The Red Book says there are about 3.3 million tons that are extractable for a price of 130 USD/ton. In 2017 the total uranium production was 60.000 tons. Thats about 55 years of uranium left at the current production rate. The Red Book assumes there are another 2.1 million tons likely to exist from geological data, but not found yet and…

Breeder reactors make that concern go away:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#123
post #36

I am afraid this thread is going to be heavy on strongly held opinions and very light on facts and figures. In a futile attempt to compensate, here is the history of gross electricity production in Germany [1]. And here is the electricity import/export statistics [2]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Energymi... [2] https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Infografiken/Energie/stroma...

So, to summarize, 1. Germany is a net exporter 2. Germany has reduced the production from fossil fuels from about 70% to about 37% within 30 years. 3. At the same time it cut nuclear power from around 28% to about 10. 4. It looks like without reducing nuclear power it could have replaced the equivalent amount of fossil fuels (achieving less than 20% fossil fuels by 2020). However, energy consumption has also gone up…

6. Wholesale electricity rates have increased from 50 Euros/mwh to 250 Euros/mwh over the course of the last year.

This isn't about averages. It's about meeting demand, which is especially important during the winter heating season.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#124
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6. If everyone had the same electricity mix than Germany we would have total blackouts everyday

How do you reach that conclusion?

You can't decide when the wind blow and when the sun shines. And you can't either decide when people turn on their washing machine. So it is obvious there is a problem

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#125

Please remember that nuclear energy makes up 12% of Germany's overall power production [1]. Yes we do import nuclear power from France. But this is not going to be a game-changer and might be even possible to offset with clean sources. [1] https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2021/09/PE21_429_43312.html

Averages do not matter when you need to keep the heat and lights on. Wholesale electricity rates are already 5 times as high as last winter. What matters is what generation can produce electricity when you need it and starting here in 10 days you will need more production.

You're completely right on this problem, of course.

Just as a cynical observation, we'll see how price-sensitive consumer energy demand really is.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#126
post #36

I am afraid this thread is going to be heavy on strongly held opinions and very light on facts and figures. In a futile attempt to compensate, here is the history of gross electricity production in Germany [1]. And here is the electricity import/export statistics [2]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Energymi... [2] https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Infografiken/Energie/stroma...

One important thing to notice is that uranium is a finite non-renewable resource. The Red Book says there are about 3.3 million tons that are extractable for a price of 130 USD/ton. In 2017 the total uranium production was 60.000 tons. Thats about 55 years of uranium left at the current production rate. The Red Book assumes there are another 2.1 million tons likely to exist from geological data, but not found yet and…

There is, however, no reason that fission power need be restricted to uranium as a fuel source. Use of breeder reactors would allow power consumption at our current levels longer than the sun is likely to exist.

Even if fission power is not the long-term solution, it is the desperately needed current solution. Running out of power would definitely kill us slowly. Current rates of CO2 production will kill us quite quickly.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#127
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One important thing to notice is that uranium is a finite non-renewable resource. The Red Book says there are about 3.3 million tons that are extractable for a price of 130 USD/ton. In 2017 the total uranium production was 60.000 tons. Thats about 55 years of uranium left at the current production rate. The Red Book assumes there are another 2.1 million tons likely to exist from geological data, but not found yet and…

> One important thing to notice is that uranium is a finite non-renewable resource. One important thing to notice is that place on earth to put wind turbines and solar panels is limited. Now imagine that electricity needs greatly increased ... At the end of the day, everything is finite

That place is much larger than you'll ever need at the very least in this century (maybe in a thousand years we'll be in trouble, but I imagine that in that era, we'll have completely different issues anyway).

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#128
post #4

This is insane to me. Nuclear is the best long-term option for ecologically-friendly energy generation. This is absolutely a bad move, and the coal industry has done a great job of demonizing nuclear power.

And that thinking is insane to me, long-term best is to have renewables and not pollute - nuclear is no alternative but just another bad with too many problems, bad economics, and waste produced.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#129
post #31
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany has never really used oil for producing electricity.

GP probably meant Russian gas. They are also going to become net buyers of coal electricity from neighboring countries as a result of this. It's not a good move for the environment.

> become net buyers of coal electricity

even if, it's not because of that we have no coal. it's just not a good idea to use lignite (besides the co2 it also destroys tons of ecosystems which is probably beyond co2) and deep mining is basically dead in germany

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#130
post #36

I am afraid this thread is going to be heavy on strongly held opinions and very light on facts and figures. In a futile attempt to compensate, here is the history of gross electricity production in Germany [1]. And here is the electricity import/export statistics [2]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Energymi... [2] https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Infografiken/Energie/stroma...

One important thing to notice is that uranium is a finite non-renewable resource. The Red Book says there are about 3.3 million tons that are extractable for a price of 130 USD/ton. In 2017 the total uranium production was 60.000 tons. Thats about 55 years of uranium left at the current production rate. The Red Book assumes there are another 2.1 million tons likely to exist from geological data, but not found yet and…

This is where fast reactors can help. Fast reactors can be fueled with reprocessed waste from thermal-neutron reactors. This produces many times the energy for the same amount of fuel. We can meet the US's energy needs for well over 100 years with the nuclear waste that we've already stockpiled, and the ultimate waste products have a half life measured in decades and not millennia.
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