Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China • Hacker News Board

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#231

Post by manuelabeledo » Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:31 PM UTC

ridewinter wrote: post #165

FooBarWidget wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't that easy. It's not just China's government that believes Taiwan is part of China — China's people also believe that. There is a saying that if China is democratic, they would have invaded Taiwan yesterday. Or another saying: if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow. Another factor that complicates things is the fact that Taiwan is a strategic location for the US's military co…

If China went democratic then Taiwan wouldn't have much issue with becoming part of it, right? Once people taste freedom they tend to not want to give it up, no matter how messy.

There is a strong Taiwanese identity among younger people, and that's one of the reasons why the DPP is so popular right now. Older generations and KMT supporters may favor reunification, but that's a sentiment fading away.

So, no, I don't think Taiwanese would agree to become Chinese.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#232

Post by vmception » Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:31 PM UTC

tamade wrote: post #104

vmception wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some elements of ROC claims the same geographic territory as the PRC PRC wants ROC on the same map as indistinguishable easy cop out for the rest of us then I would say still notice that visa policy is handled separately, and that requires continual education But as far as public recognition its super easy to just show one country, no need for grandstanding

Let's be clear, visas are handled separately because they are separate countries. Maps are just political theatre. The vintage ROC map you are referring to also includes Mongolia and parts of Russia (Chinese territories that Mao/CCP ceded), but no one in Taiwan is seriously making those claims. Note the CCP lays claim over the SCS based on an old 9-dashed map made by the ROC.

Look I’m saying I don’t have to care and its easy to conform without actually considering it bending the knee, because its hilarious.

I get that the current head of state and majority party in the ROC doesnt extend its territorial claims beyond the island they are on. There are some people that hold on to the prior claims.

The rest of us really need to just build additional pylons so we don't have any manufacturing consequences when that matter is resolved. Because thats the only reason we care right now (aside from how brutal the reintegration will be).

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#233

Post by Aeolun » Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

nindalf wrote: post #210

thesuperbigfrog wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Why would they give up on this “charade” as you put it? They’re closer than ever to annexing Taiwan in 2021. They hold every card. Except how the rest of the world would react. It seems like a recipe for war.

The rest of the world is scared of even offending China by calling Taiwan a country. You really think they’re going to go to war over Taiwan?

They’re not really scared of offending China, they’re scared of triggering that war. If China triggers that war all the hesitancy will be gone.

That said, I’d expected more of a reaction to the annexation of Hong Kong too.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#234

Post by baby » Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

forty wrote: post #220

motiejus wrote: post #200

I am Lithuanian; Lithuania Taiwan PRC conflict is frequently a topic of discussion these days among my peers. My position, shared by a few others, is that this is the next best thing that happened in Lithuania after leaving USSR: the first being joining NATO and EU in 2004. Everyone in the world can (and almost everyone do) endorse PRC. "You won't get fired for picking IBM/Oracle/PRC". While very few countries have t…

I'm French, I hope we (France, EU) follow your lead.

Same here… Macron you reading this?

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#235

Post by BrazzVuvuzela » Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

sudosysgen wrote: post #163

BrazzVuvuzela wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan could likely develop their own native nuclear weapons in a matter of months, if they chose to. They have a mature nuclear industry with several reactors, and likely already have plans for nuclear weapons drawn up.

You're forgetting about Chinese intelligence. It would never work once the Chinese notice and it would only provide an actually valid casus belli

China could accuse Taiwan of developing nuclear weapons today, saying their spies uncovered the plot. Would you, I or anybody else be able to refute it? Would our doubt matter? And if Taiwan really did start manufacturing nuclear bombs and China was telling the truth about it, would you, I or others in the West believe them? The 'actual validity' of a casus belli has never really counted for much.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#236

Post by sudosysgen » Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

thesuperbigfrog wrote: post #216

LatteLazy wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China could take Taiwan and I don't think anyone would stop them. But the aftermath would be pretty terrible. The US and EU would lock them out of the their economies, as would basically every country in the region except NK. Economic collapse would ensue and that would likely lead to a revolution: the CCP have basically ruled on a "give up freedom and get economic opportunity" ticket. If they can't deliver... There…

>> China could take Taiwan and I don't think anyone would stop them. I am inclined to believe that it would look similar to Iraq invading Kuwait, only 100000 times bigger and bloodier. I think the US, UK, Australia, Japan, and many EU nations would strongly disapprove and take military action.

China has a military strong enough to credibly take on the US, the UK, Australia and Japan in their backyard. That is because, as you'll note, these powers are all thousands and thousands of kilometers away from the theater, which gives China a massive advantage.

The best they could realistically do if the invasion does succeed is try to force an embargo. This will be massively unpopular, kill tens of thousands in third countries that will be sanctioned as collateral damage, and crash the world economy, and still might not work.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#237

Post by ngc248 » Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

Enginerrrd wrote: post #46

lmilcin wrote: post #4

There is a simple solution. If most of western world allowed Taiwan embassies China would have to relent. They can't afford having entire western world stand against them. Unfortunately, that would require western nations to agree on something.

Nah, it would require them to put principles over the profit of a few constituents. China's geopolitical strategy is brilliant. They see that their adversaries in democratic western countries are beholden to the quarterly profits of a handful of corporations. China, unlike any of the Western nations, WILL take a stand on their principles over profit (At least they seem to, but more on that in a second.) So, they've r…

Exactly, Whatever factions there maybe in the CCP, externally they project a coherent policy, which is not possible in democratic countries.

>>> So, they've really effectively backdoored our politicians. Not just politicians, they have backdoored hollywood, wallstreet everyone of em. They will suck up to the CCP and pander to any of their demands

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#238

Post by baybal2 » Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

sudosysgen wrote: post #204

nabla9 wrote: post #164

China has had only one leader who was educated in the West: Deng Xiaoping. Deng was sent to Paris in 1920 when he was 16 where he attented middle schools, in 1926 he studied in Moscow. He moved back to China in 1927. Deng understood the West and was able to advance Chinese interests. Xi Jinping is complete opposite of Deng. Xi has no understanding of other cultures. Russia under Putin bullies and plays brinkmanship d…

Xi spent multiple years living (correction, only a few weeks) in the US. You are off the mark. There are other, much more complex reasons in play.

Hsi Chinping only spent 2 weeks in US on a work trip.

There are no complex reasons at play.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#239

Post by manuelabeledo » Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

nindalf wrote: post #146

subroutine wrote: post #44

China would be much better off if they just gave up on the whole Taiwan charade. I understand how badly they want to put Taiwan under thumb like they did HK, but Taiwan is really the only issue I foresee with potential to derail China's progress.

Edit: apologies to anyone who read my comment analysing the situation and assumed that I’m some kind of warmonger. At no point did I advocate for Taiwan to be annexed. I merely pointed out that China really wants to and they’re stronger than ever in 2021. Shoutout to the dude who implied I’m a Nazi for saying this. Why would they give up on this “charade” as you put it? They’re closer than ever to annexing Taiwan in…

> They’re closer than ever to annexing Taiwan in 2021

> 2020 and 2021 has made the world realise exactly how important Taiwan is to the world economy.

These two statements are exclusive.

If China would invade Taiwan, the economic downfall and the reactions from most western countries, which, on the other hand, are essential partners for China to continue its manufacturing dominance, would be catastrophic.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#240

Post by regnull » Sun, Dec 19, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #99

subroutine wrote: post #44

China would be much better off if they just gave up on the whole Taiwan charade. I understand how badly they want to put Taiwan under thumb like they did HK, but Taiwan is really the only issue I foresee with potential to derail China's progress.

It isn't that easy. It's not just China's government that believes Taiwan is part of China — China's people also believe that. There is a saying that if China is democratic, they would have invaded Taiwan yesterday. Or another saying: if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow. Another factor that complicates things is the fact that Taiwan is a strategic location for the US's military co…

> if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow

Haha, no. CCP will just present it as a victory for some weird reason, and everyone will just keep applauding. There might be some resentment, but not open one.